Steady Lads Live From TOKEN2049 in Singapore (2026)
Steady Lads Live From TOKEN2049 in Singapore (2026)
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Zcash (ZEC) only as a high-risk, momentum-sensitive position: the privacy and Project Hachyon thesis is speculative, and $1,000 was identified as a key bearish level; avoid relying on the much higher price scenarios.
  • Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as a watchlist opportunity rather than a confirmed bottom: speakers disagreed on whether the roughly $60,000 low would hold, so monitor price action and quantum-related developments before re-entering.
  • Avoid chasing crowded, expensive HYPE and Lighter positions; the discussion flagged lofty expectations and limited evidence that newer products will drive further upside.
  • Watch for the planned Variational token launch in Q4 as a potential catalyst, but assess its token economics and demand rather than relying on reported trading volume alone.
Detailed Analysis

Zcash (ZEC)

  • One trader called Zcash the “coin of the cycle” and said they were still averaging in. The thesis combines a privacy narrative with Project Hachyon, which they said was expected in the next few months and could address quantum-related concerns.
  • The trader argued Zcash could compete with Bitcoin for narrative-driven investment flows. Another speaker cautioned that Zcash had recently been the worst-performing asset over seven days and said such assets can fall sharply when interest fades.
  • The trader viewed $1,000 as an important level: losing it would be bearish in their view. Their stated mental stop-loss was a price in the three digits, though they acknowledged they had not set an actual stop.
  • They mentioned potentially selling some holdings above $2,000, and referred to $3,000–$4,000 and even $20,000–$30,000 as much more ambitious possibilities over the next couple of years. These were personal views, not assured targets.
  • A speaker noted Zcash has no cash flows and described it as a monetary asset, making its value especially dependent on demand and narrative.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case discussed depends on privacy interest and Project Hachyon gaining traction; the bearish risk is a loss of momentum after a rapid run-up.
  • The $1,000 level and the trader’s stated three-digit exit threshold were the clearest risk-management markers mentioned. The much higher price possibilities were highly speculative.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was described as facing a quantum-computing overhang. One trader said people they spoke with thought BTC might be worth $120,000–$150,000 if the quantum issue were addressed; this was an opinion, not a price target from the speakers.
  • The same discussion framed Zcash as a possible competitor for some Bitcoin narrative-driven flows.
  • One speaker said a sustainable Bitcoin advance may require the gold narrative to strengthen. Another said the market may have bottomed around $60,000 and was looking for opportunities to re-enter.
  • A different speaker was less confident, saying Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown was smaller than the roughly 75% decline in a previous cycle and expressing concern that the market might not have had a sufficiently deep reset.
  • Robinhood’s reported purchase of $25 million of BTC was viewed as a positive sign that institutional or corporate balance-sheet buying may be returning.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents conflicting views: one speaker thought the $60,000 low was in, while another worried the decline had not been deep enough.
  • The discussion points to quantum developments and Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold as themes to monitor, rather than offering a clear consensus price outlook.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • One speaker had previously predicted $7,000–$10,000 ETH, but said they sold 5%–10% around $4,850 and the rest around $3,850 after the market turned.
  • That speaker said selling the position allowed them to wait for the cycle to reset before deciding what to buy next.
  • Another speaker suggested a possible trade involving long BMNR and short ETH, or holding selected Ethereum ecosystem assets instead of ETH. This was presented as an idea to investigate, not as a settled recommendation.
  • The discussion raised the possibility that Tom Lee and BitMine could use their ETH holdings to support projects in the Ethereum ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • The speakers were more cautious about ETH than their earlier cycle expectations suggest. Their discussion emphasized reassessing ETH against ecosystem assets and company-linked catalysts.
  • The proposed long-BMNR/short-ETH idea is speculative and depends on future actions by BitMine and the relative performance of the two assets.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

  • The speakers said Tom Lee’s strategy involved accumulating ETH, with a reported goal of reaching 5% of the supply and roughly $400 million in cash available to deploy.
  • They speculated that BitMine could use its holdings and influence to support Ethereum ecosystem projects. One speaker described a possible trade of long BMNR and short ETH.

Takeaways

  • The potential thesis discussed is that BitMine’s ETH accumulation could lead to partnerships or support for other ecosystem assets.
  • That outcome was described as speculation. The transcript did not establish which projects, if any, BitMine might back or how its actions would affect BMNR.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Hyperliquid was described as a strong product and one of the assets frequently held by traders, but also as expensive.
  • One speaker said its valuation appeared to price in a very long period of future revenue, and that buybacks had become a small influence on the price at that valuation.
  • Hyperliquid’s core perpetuals product was praised. By contrast, speakers said its prediction-market effort, HIP-4, had limited traction so far and did not yet fit prediction-market users as well as the core product fits perpetual traders.
  • Options were discussed as a possible next market for derivatives platforms, but no specific impact on HYPE was established.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s view is mixed: strong product quality, but concerns about valuation and crowded ownership.
  • Any upside from new products such as HIP-4 or options was uncertain; the speakers said the core perpetuals product remained Hyperliquid’s clearest success.

Lighter

  • Lighter was repeatedly named alongside HYPE and Zcash as a widely held trader favorite.
  • One speaker said Lighter had performed strongly, while warning that buybacks across popular platforms could have only a limited effect on price when valuations already imply substantial future revenue.
  • The transcript did not provide a specific price target or detailed investment thesis for Lighter.

Takeaways

  • The main insight is that crowded ownership and high valuation expectations may make popular assets vulnerable if sentiment turns.
  • The speakers did not give enough detail to assess Lighter’s fundamentals or establish a specific catalyst.

Solana (SOL)

  • Solana was described as a major previous-cycle challenger to Ethereum. In the year-over-year comparison, a speaker said SOL had been roughly twice as high a year earlier.
  • Solana remained among the major assets, but the discussion did not offer a specific current bullish or bearish thesis.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides historical context, not a fresh investment case or price target for SOL.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

  • Dogecoin was described as having failed to recover meaningfully in the comparison with a year earlier, with one speaker estimating it was down roughly two-thirds.
  • Speakers suggested that speculative interest had shifted toward assets such as Zcash and HYPE.

Takeaways

  • The discussion portrayed DOGE as a laggard relative to newer or more fashionable crypto trades, but offered no forecast or specific recommendation.

XRP

  • XRP was mentioned mainly as a comparison point: a speaker recalled it trading around $3 in the prior-year market snapshot.
  • No current outlook, price target, or investment thesis was given.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers historical price context only; it does not support a specific investment conclusion about XRP.

BNB

  • BNB was cited as an example of a token that may benefit when a company builds utility for it across its ecosystem.
  • Speakers suggested Kraken’s planned token might try to follow a similar model, while noting that directing value to a token can come at the expense of a company’s equity or cash flow.

Takeaways

  • The discussion framed BNB as a utility-token example, not as a new recommendation. The central consideration was whether ecosystem use creates enough token demand to justify the trade-offs for the associated company.

Variational Token (planned TGE)

  • A Variational executive said the project planned a Q4 token launch and expected to distribute 32% of the token supply by airdrop, which they described as larger than Hyperliquid’s 31% airdrop.
  • The executive reported more than $4 billion in daily volume, mostly from TradFi perpetuals, and said the team was preparing for its token launch.
  • Speakers noted that launches can attract substantial optimism but can also disappoint and harm a project’s brand.

Takeaways

  • The planned launch, airdrop, and reported activity were the main potential catalysts discussed.
  • The transcript did not provide token economics beyond the airdrop share, so the reported trading volume alone is not enough to assess the token’s value.

Kraken / Ink (planned token)

  • Kraken was said to be planning an Ink token, with one speaker estimating a possible launch in three to six months.
  • A speaker described a broad vision that could connect trading, asset management, and wealth services. The potential model was compared to BNB’s use across an ecosystem.
  • Another speaker cautioned that token utility can divert fee-related value away from a company’s equity and that the trade-off may matter to equity holders.

Takeaways

  • The key question raised was whether Ink can develop real utility across Kraken’s services and create demand for the token.
  • The launch timing and vision were discussed as expectations, not confirmed outcomes; the transcript also highlights a possible conflict between token value and company cash flow.

Base (potential token)

  • Base was mentioned as having discussed the possibility of a token, but no launch had occurred.
  • A speaker suggested that continued token expectations could help draw activity to Base, while cautioning that users seeking rewards may move elsewhere once a token is launched.
  • The discussion also raised the possibility that issuing a token could complicate the interests of a public company and its equity holders.

Takeaways

  • Base’s possible token was a speculative topic, not a confirmed investment opportunity.
  • The transcript identifies a trade-off to watch: a token may attract attention, but could also shift value or activity away from the company’s existing business.

Polymarket (potential token)

  • Speakers noted that a possible Polymarket token had been hinted at, but there was no announcement.
  • One speaker said a private company may have more flexibility than a public company to use a token as a capital-raising tool.

Takeaways

  • A token remained unconfirmed in the discussion. Any investment case would depend on an actual launch and the token’s design, neither of which was provided.

Coinbase (COIN) and Base

  • Coinbase was discussed in connection with a possible Base token, not as a stock recommendation.
  • A speaker said a token might not necessarily benefit Coinbase’s equity and could potentially redirect value away from the company’s business.

Takeaways

  • The transcript raises a possible tension between a token strategy and shareholder value, but gives no view on Coinbase’s stock price or valuation.

Pearl

  • Pearl was described as an “AI Bitcoin” and as a network using proof of useful work, with AI inference compute contributing to mining.
  • One speaker said it was difficult to buy because it was available only through a small, obscure KYC-free centralized exchange, creating purchase and liquidity friction.
  • Another speaker said the network had roughly $1 million of inflation per day and that supply was expected to double over the next year. They emphasized that demand would need to exceed supply over time for the token to perform well.
  • The speakers viewed AI-related crypto assets as an area of interest but described Pearl as early and risky.

Takeaways

  • The transcript identifies a possible AI-and-crypto narrative, but also unusually high supply growth and limited trading access.
  • Before treating a future exchange listing as a catalyst, investors would need to consider whether demand can absorb the ongoing and expected token supply.

Grass

  • Grass was mentioned as an AI-related token that had doubled since the speakers’ prior episode.
  • No additional fundamentals, price target, or risk factors were discussed.

Takeaways

  • The performance reference is backward-looking and does not establish that the move will continue.

MultiX

  • MultiX was named among AI-related tokens that had been discussed positively in earlier episodes.
  • The transcript did not provide details about its project, valuation, or performance.

Takeaways

  • No actionable thesis can be drawn from the brief mention alone.

Worldcoin (WLD)

  • Worldcoin was mentioned as an AI-related token that had started to “pick up the slack.”
  • A separate discussion suggested Tom Lee might support ecosystem projects, with a speaker mentioning Worldcoin and “Orbs,” but the specific relationship or activity was unclear.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to interest in AI-related assets, but provides no confirmed catalyst, price target, or detailed fundamental thesis for WLD.

Fartcoin

  • A speaker compared ambitious Zcash expectations with an earlier $10 Fartcoin target and said the comparison brought back concerns about overconfidence.
  • Fartcoin was also mentioned as an example of a highly speculative, personality- and attention-driven token market.

Takeaways

  • The speakers used Fartcoin as a cautionary example of how extreme targets can reflect speculative enthusiasm rather than a dependable valuation basis.
  • No current price target or direct recommendation was given.

Orbeo

  • Orbeo was described as a crypto-and-AI token that had reached roughly $100 million in value and was trading actively.
  • Its price reportedly fell about 50% in a few hours after traders noticed that its founder followed a luxury-watch concierge account. Speakers acknowledged that the founder may simply have followed the account, but said the market reacted to fears of a founder cashing out or spending heavily.

Takeaways

  • The episode illustrates how perceptions of founder behavior can affect a token, even when the underlying evidence is limited.
  • The reported price move also highlights the risk of sharp volatility in smaller, sentiment-driven tokens.

Kalshi

  • Kalshi’s prediction-market business was described as strong, but speakers discussed concerns about its perpetuals platform after data appeared to show a large volume of trading relative to open interest.
  • The discussion characterized some of the perps volume as potentially non-organic or wash trading. Kalshi reportedly withdrew from a planned perpetuals competition at the event amid the situation.

Takeaways

  • The transcript distinguishes the prediction-market business from the newer perps product; concerns centered on the latter’s trading activity.
  • The wash-trading discussion was presented by the speakers as an interpretation of available data, not as a detailed verified finding.

Hyperliquid, prediction markets, and options

  • The speakers said prediction-market platforms were continuing to attract attention, but Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 product had not yet matched the fit of its perpetuals product.
  • They expected platforms to explore options, describing options as a likely area of competition. One speaker said recreating an on-chain order book could be difficult and mentioned RFQ-based access to TradFi liquidity as an alternative approach.

Takeaways

  • Derivatives expansion could create opportunities, but the transcript does not establish which platform will succeed.
  • Product-market fit and the ability to bring in usable liquidity were identified as important considerations.

TRON (TRX), Tether (USDT), and USDC

  • Tether and USDC were described as relatively stable in the comparison of market values: the figures cited were approximately $190 billion for Tether and $74 billion for USDC, compared with about $175 billion and $74 billion previously.
  • TRON was said to have moved from around $0.34 to $0.33 over the year and was jokingly described as a “stablecoin.”

Takeaways

  • The comments were comparative, not recommendations. The speakers offered no specific outlook for USDT, USDC, or TRX.

Aave (AAVE)

  • Aave was mentioned as one of several Ethereum-related assets that Tom Lee might support, alongside a broader discussion of ecosystem projects.
  • No confirmed investment, partnership, or price target was provided.

Takeaways

  • The potential connection to BitMine’s strategy was speculative; the transcript does not establish a concrete catalyst for AAVE.

Cardano (ADA)

  • Cardano was mentioned in a joke about its founder, Charles Hoskinson, and was described as having generated substantial wealth for its community and founder.
  • No current investment thesis or price outlook was discussed.

Takeaways

  • The reference was humorous and does not provide a basis for an investment conclusion about ADA.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • Robinhood’s reported $25 million Bitcoin purchase was cited as a positive market signal, especially because balance-sheet crypto purchases had not been prominent in recent headlines.
  • The comment concerned Robinhood’s BTC purchase, not the valuation or prospects of Robinhood stock.

Takeaways

  • The speakers viewed the purchase as evidence of renewed interest in corporate crypto holdings, but did not make a stock recommendation on HOOD.

Crypto market themes

  • Speakers said many traders were holding the same assets, particularly HYPE, Zcash, Lighter, and NEAR. They described crowded positioning as a potential concern when valuations rely on many years of expected revenue.
  • They also described a split between cash-flow-oriented assets and “monetary” or narrative-driven assets, while expressing less enthusiasm for some mid-range Layer 1 tokens.
  • Views on the market differed: one speaker thought the market had bottomed around $60,000 BTC and was broadly bullish; others emphasized high valuations, crowded trades, and the possibility that Bitcoin had not fallen enough.
  • One speaker said speculation appeared to be returning, citing a rise in the Fear and Greed Index from very low readings to around 70.

Takeaways

  • The common thread was selectivity: the speakers expected stronger performance from assets that attract sustained demand, while warning that consensus holdings and high valuations could leave popular trades exposed if conditions weaken.
  • These were broad market views, not a uniform call that the entire crypto market was entering a new bull run.
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Video Description
The Lads took the show to the TOKEN2049 stage in Singapore — one year almost to the day since 10/10. So they pulled up the charts from last October and went through what actually changed. Zcash and Hyperliquid in the top ten. Dogecoin never came back. Justin out of ETH entirely. And every fund manager at every dinner holding the exact same four tickers. Taiki names his Zcash stop loss and his target. Jordi makes the case that everything in crypto is evolving into a crab. Plus the AI coin nobody can figure out how to buy. LINKS TO PASTAS 🍝 Taiki: https://x.com/jxcbzs/status/2102519571097809286?s=20 Justin: https://x.com/hansolar21/status/2107673901157503168?s=20 Dim: https://x.com/edgar_eth/status/2107205186024321114?s=20 Jordi: https://x.com/IOHK_Charles/status/2099184614564606058?s=20 In Episode #104 we cover: 00:00 Coming Up on Steady Lads... 01:11 One Year Since 10/10, Quantum & The Coin Of The Cycle 03:20 Selling All The ETH & The Consensus Bag Problem 08:20 The Only TGE Of The Year 13:30 AI Coins & The Pearl Mystery 18:50 Everything Becomes A Crab 28:53 Pasta of the Week 🍝 33:20 Are We Back? Make sure to Like & Subscribe, and hit the notification bell so you don't miss an episode! ------ SL Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/0xSteadyLads SL YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@0xSteadyLads ------ * Dim Selk • https://x.com/dim_ss * Jordi Alexander • https://twitter.com/gametheorizing * Justin Bram • https://twitter.com/JustinCBram * Taiki Maeda • https://twitter.com/TaikiMaeda2 ⚠️ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ⚠️ This episode is for entertainment and informational purposes only. Nothing said by the hosts, guests, or written in this description is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any asset. The hosts and guests hold positions in the assets discussed — including $ZEC — and those positions can change at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Crypto is extremely volatile and you can lose everything. Do your own research and speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. #Crypto #Zcash #Token2049
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By @0xsteadylads