Eclipse's Lior Susan on $12.5B AUM and the Bet on Physical Industries
Eclipse's Lior Susan on $12.5B AUM and the Bet on Physical Industries
Podcast48 min 9 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider establishing direct equity positions in Micron (MU) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) to capitalize on their structural pricing power as dominant suppliers of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) essential for AI accelerators.

Diversify beyond software into the physical AI and AI infrastructure theme by targeting critical hardware bottlenecks, including power generation, electrical equipment, and advanced liquid cooling.

Track Rivian Automotive (RIVN) to capture upside from strategic manufacturing spinouts, such as industrial automation platform Mind Robotics, which unlocks non-dilutive balance sheet value.

Seek pre-IPO or secondary market access to high-demand private market leaders, specifically vertically integrated AI supercomputing provider Cerebras Systems and satellite connectivity giant SpaceX via Starlink.

Position in domestic energy storage leaders like Redwood Materials, which are primed to support power-hungry data centers as Western supply chain restrictions limit foreign battery competitors.

Detailed Analysis

Cerebras Systems (Private / IPO)

  • Cerebras has advanced from developing specialized AI chips to delivering full-stack supercomputing systems and operating specialized AI data centers.
    • The company operates with an estimated 40% to 50% gross margin, commanding strong valuation multiples by addressing complex computing bottlenecks in a massive total addressable market.
    • Represents a shift where vertically integrated hardware providers take over large portions of the compute supply chain rather than relying on legacy chip designs.

Takeaways

  • Look for potential public market access or private secondary shares in Cerebras as high-performance compute demand accelerates beyond traditional GPU architectures.
  • Evaluate hardware-centric AI companies based on their free cash flow generation and full-system integration rather than purely software-like gross margins.

SpaceX (Private)

  • Highlighted as a premier example of full-stack physical industry dominance, successfully moving from launch systems to global satellite connectivity through Starlink.
    • Demonstrates the "multi-act" business model common in physical tech, where foundational infrastructure enables massive recurring-revenue downstream services.
    • Benefits from deep vertical integration and substantial government and commercial contracts.

Takeaways

  • Monitor private tech funds or pre-IPO access vehicles that offer exposure to SpaceX, particularly as Starlink continues to capture commercial telecom market share.
  • Use SpaceX as a benchmark for how capital-intensive physical tech companies can leverage core manufacturing infrastructure into high-margin service models.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) / Mind Robotics

  • Rivian collaborated with Eclipse to spin out Mind, a general-purpose robotics company designed specifically for manufacturing environments.
    • Rather than focusing on humanoid designs, Mind develops mobile, high-dexterity robotic platforms trained on proprietary industrial manufacturing data.
    • Carving out the technology enables external capital funding and allows the robotics entity to operate as a supplier across the automotive and industrial sectors without burdening Rivian's balance sheet.

Takeaways

  • Track Rivian's strategic partnerships and ecosystem spinouts, which can unlock non-dilutive balance sheet value and accelerate operational automation.
  • Focus on practical, non-humanoid industrial robotics companies addressing immediate warehouse and factory floor labor shortages over consumer-oriented humanoids.

High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Suppliers: Micron (MU), SK Hynix (000660.KS), Samsung (005930.KS)

  • The global memory market remains an oligopoly controlled by Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, creating a structural bottleneck for AI infrastructure.
    • Massive capital expenditure requirements and advanced packaging technicalities create immense moats against new entrants.
    • High demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to support AI accelerators provides these producers with substantial commercial pricing power.

Takeaways

  • Consider direct equity exposure to leading memory manufacturers (MU, SK Hynix) as long-term AI infrastructure buildouts require increasing ratios of high-performance memory per compute cluster.
  • Watch for emerging hardware startups attempting to introduce alternative memory architectures or heterogeneous AI interconnects to lower data center costs.

Redwood Materials (Private)

  • Led by former Tesla (TSLA) executives, Redwood Materials has expanded beyond lithium-ion battery recycling into manufacturing large-scale stationary energy storage systems.
    • Well-positioned to capture demand from the data center boom as regulatory policies restrict Chinese battery manufacturers (such as CATL) from supplying domestic utility grids.
    • Illustrates the value of multi-phase industrial expansion: transforming recycled feedstock into critical domestic energy grid infrastructure.

Takeaways

  • Position in the domestic energy transition and battery supply chain, where deglobalization and supply chain security policies favor Western manufacturers.
  • Monitor commercial partnerships between clean energy storage developers and hyperscale AI data centers needing independent power capacity.

Physical AI & AI Infrastructure (Investment Theme)

  • Approximately 85% of global GDP (roughly $100 trillion) resides in physical industries like manufacturing, energy, defense, mining, and shipping, compared to relatively small software sub-sectors.
    • Data centers face critical physical constraints including power availability, thermal cooling capacity, and equipment lead times (e.g., gas turbines facing up to 5-year lead times).
    • Growth opportunities are shifting toward capital-intensive "picks and shovels" supporting computing demand, such as nuclear power, sodium-ion batteries, advanced HVAC/liquid cooling, and on-premises CPU appliances (such as Oxide).

Takeaways

  • Diversify AI portfolios beyond foundational software models into core physical enablers: electrical equipment, industrial automation, and power generation.
  • Seek out opportunities in on-premises infrastructure, as enterprise security, latency concerns, and data sovereignty reverse total reliance on public cloud environments.
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Episode Description
Eclipse spent 8 years investing in manufacturing, space, semiconductors, defense & mining while the rest of Silicon Valley funded SaaS. Lior Susan says the math was never close. Lior Susan is the Founder & CEO of Eclipse, the Palo Alto firm he started in 2015 with a $125M debut fund alongside Pierre Lamond, who was 85 at the time & had already spent a career at Fairchild Semiconductor under Gordon Moore, co-founded National Semiconductor, & put in 27 years as a GP at Sequoia Capital. Lamond is 96 now and still mentors the team.  "We never thought ourselves as venture capital. We call it operators with capital because we are operators with capital." Eclipse manages approximately $12.5B and closed $1.3B in April 2026 across Eclipse Fund VI and Early Growth III, its largest raise to date. The firm's 2016 Series A into Cerebras returned roughly $2.5B at the $185 IPO price in May 2026 on a total of about $147M invested.  Eclipse portfolio companies have raised $15.9B in 2026 alone, including $1.2B for Wayve, $650M for True Anomaly, $270M for Bedrock Robotics, $220M for VulcanForms and $200M for Oxide. In September 2026, Eclipse incubation Noetive came out of stealth with a $41M seed led by the firm. Susan was named to the 2026 Forbes Midas List. Lior Susan: https://www.linkedin.com/in/liorsusan/ Molly O’Shea: https://x.com/MollySOShea  Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryy 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊 YouTube: ⁠https://youtu.be/fj9pHUbJhp4 𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒 • Brex—The modern finance platform, combining the world’s smartest corporate card with integrated expense management, banking, bill pay, & travel. https://brex.com/sourcery • Zone—develops next-generation data center campuses, partnering with AI companies, site developers and technology leaders to bring compute online faster and at scale. Visit: https://zonefrontier.com    • Turing—Turing delivers top-tier talent, data, and tools to help AI labs improve model performance—and enables enterprises to turn those models into powerful, production-ready systems. https://turing.com/sourcery  • VCX—VCX is the public ticker for private tech, allowing investors of all sizes to invest in venture capital. View The Portfolio at http://GetVCX.com   • Deel—Deel is the global people platform that helps startups hire, manage, pay, and equip anyone, anywhere. Trusted by more than 35,000 fast-growing companies, Deel is the people platform that just works, so teams can scale without the chaos. Visit: https://www.deel.com/sourcery • Public–Investing platform Public just launched Generated Assets, which lets you turn any idea into an investable index with AI. With Generated Assets, you can build, backtest, refine, and invest in any thesis with AI. Gone are the days of one-size-fits-all ETFs. https://public.com/sourcery   Follow Sourcery for the latest updates! https://www.sourcery.vc Disclosure Paid Endorsement. Brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC-registered adviser. Crypto trading provided by Zero Hash LLC, licensed by the NYSDFS. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.   𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 (00:00) Lior Susan, Founder & CEO at Eclipse (01:02) The story behind Eclipse (02:35) How Lior met Pierre (07:33) Why physical companies need operators (12:35) How Mind Robotics was spun out of Rivian (15:41) Why Lior started Eclipse (18:21) Why building physical companies is so hard (24:33) Inside Eclipse’s physical industry bet (36:01) Building the "Eclipse Economy" (40:08) Why physical infrastructure creates jobs (41:19) From banana farmer to VC (43:37) What it really means to support a portfolio company   (46:00) Who inspires Lior?
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