U.S. Bonds Are Trading Like an Emerging Market with Liz Thomas
U.S. Bonds Are Trading Like an Emerging Market with Liz Thomas
Podcast24 min 57 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider 10-year U.S. Treasuries as an income and portfolio-diversification option near 5% yields, while accounting for the risk that yields may rise further.
  • For growth exposure, favor software, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and AI, where investment demand is supportive, but size positions cautiously because higher rates can pressure valuations.
  • Maintain selective healthcare exposure into the U.S. midterms as a potentially defensive strategy; consumer staples may also help diversify, though historical patterns are not guarantees.
Detailed Analysis

U.S. Treasury Bonds (10-Year Treasury)

  • The speakers described a sharp rise in Treasury yields, including a 20-basis-point move over two days, a five-year yield above 5%, and an average yield across the Treasury curve above 5%.
  • One speaker said they had discussed buying the 10-year Treasury above 4.80%, initiated a personal position around 5%, and might add more.
  • They argued that higher yields may persist in a different inflation and interest-rate environment than investors have experienced in recent decades.

Takeaways

  • Treasury bonds were presented as a way to earn yield and balance a portfolio, but rising yields can also create uncertainty for other assets and may reflect persistent inflation.
  • The speaker’s personal purchase is not a guaranteed outcome or a general recommendation; consider how bond exposure fits your time horizon and risk tolerance.

Gold

  • One speaker said they had initiated a position in gold and remained bullish, despite recent weakness.
  • They attributed some near-term pressure to technical trading factors and noted that gold does not pay interest, making it less attractive when yields are high.
  • Their longer-term case was based on uncertainty and geopolitical instability, rather than expectations that central banks would resume buying at the pace seen previously.
  • They said central banks had been selling gold to raise cash amid higher oil prices, potentially reducing a source of demand.

Takeaways

  • The discussion frames gold as a potential portfolio diversifier during periods of uncertainty, not as a yield-producing investment.
  • The bullish view is conditional: high yields can weigh on gold, and the speakers did not expect the same level of central-bank buying as before.

Software, Semiconductors, Cybersecurity, and AI

  • One speaker described being heavily invested in software, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and AI as one side of a “balance by extremes” portfolio approach.
  • They said AI-related spending and capital investment were supporting economic growth expectations and helping large technology stocks rise despite higher Treasury yields.
  • The speaker also cautioned that the market could be overlooking the implications of higher rates, and said investors should not assume the market will keep rising indefinitely.

Takeaways

  • These areas were presented as growth-oriented exposures benefiting from AI investment and strong activity.
  • The discussion also highlights valuation and market-risk concerns: higher rates can pressure stock valuations, and enthusiasm for AI may not prevent a broader market downturn.

Commodities and Oil

  • A speaker said they held commodities as part of a portfolio intended to help address inflation.
  • They described oil above $90 a barrel as a potential danger point: if prices stayed elevated amid an ongoing war, the Fed might continue raising rates, increasing the risk of recession.
  • They also discussed a possible diesel-export ban and a potential trucking strike as inflation-related concerns. One speaker said an export ban could ultimately raise inflation rather than reduce it.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents commodities as a possible inflation hedge, while emphasizing that elevated oil prices could also hurt the economy and markets.
  • The oil scenario was discussed as a risk case, not a specific price forecast or recommendation to buy energy investments.

Financials: Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS)

  • The speakers said bank stocks had recently weakened, with financials among the poorer-performing industry groups over the prior five trading days.
  • A flatter yield curve may squeeze banks’ net interest margins when they pay more for short-term deposits while earning on longer-term lending.
  • Bank of America was cited as particularly exposed to lending and consumer banking.
  • Goldman Sachs was discussed as more exposed to deal flow and capital-markets activity, which could weaken if expected activity slows.
  • They also noted that an expected OpenAI IPO had been pushed to 2027, contributing to questions about near-term capital-markets activity.

Takeaways

  • The speakers viewed weakness in financials as a cautionary signal and said they watch the sector to gauge broader market and economic conditions.
  • A flatter yield curve and slower deal activity were identified as pressures; the transcript did not give price targets or recommend buying or selling either bank.

OpenAI

  • OpenAI was mentioned in the context of its IPO being pushed out to 2027.
  • The delay was cited as one reason investors may be less certain about near-term capital-markets activity for banks.

Takeaways

  • The discussion provides an IPO timing reference, not an investment recommendation.
  • No valuation, share price, or public-market ticker was provided.

Healthcare and Consumer Staples

  • The speakers said healthcare and consumer staples have historically tended to perform relatively well leading up to U.S. midterm elections.
  • Healthcare was one of the few sectors that had risen on the day referenced in the discussion.
  • One speaker said they would remain long healthcare into the midterms and expected possible market volatility or a drawdown beforehand, followed by potential relief afterward.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents healthcare and consumer staples as potentially defensive sector exposures during the run-up to the midterms.
  • The expected market pattern is historical, not certain; the speakers also warned that election-related headlines and inflation concerns could make markets bumpy.
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Episode Description
Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss historic moves in U.S. Treasuries, with yields jumping 20 bps in two days, the 5-year above 5%, and the average Treasury yield above 5%, signaling a new inflationary regime and forcing investors to rethink allocations. Despite higher discount rates, stocks have held up due to a rotation back into mega-cap tech and AI-driven CapEx supporting GDP expectations, even as the bond market “story” looks ominous. Thomas outlines a “balance by extremes” approach—overweight AI/tech while holding 10-year Treasuries, gold, and commodities—and warns a prolonged war and $90+ oil could push the Fed into hikes that risk recession. They debate gold’s outlook amid technical pressure and reduced central-bank buying, and review banks rolling over as a flatter curve squeezes net interest margins and weaker deal-flow expectations pressure investment banks. They also flag midterm-election volatility, with healthcare favored, and note Tony Robbins appeared on “The Important Part.” —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
About RiskReversal Pod
RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Pod

By RiskReversal Media

Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech.  We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions. Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets. Tune into the RiskReversal Pod Monday through Friday for succinct 30 minute pod drops of market analysis that you won't find anywhere else. For new episodes of On The Tape with Danny Moses, search "On The Tape" in your favorite podcast platform. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media