Consider potential weakness in the AI sector, as NVIDIA (NVDA) is showing signs of heading lower after failing to rally on good news. Be cautious with regional banks, as the KRE ETF may be forming a large bearish "head and shoulders" pattern with key resistance around $65. The bullish trade on gold remains intact, supported by strong central bank buying and a long-term price forecast of $4,000 from Deutsche Bank. Expect the US Dollar to continue heading lower, with a potential target of 1.25 for the Euro. Monitor other AI leaders like Broadcom (AVGO) and Oracle (ORCL), as a sell-off to fill their recent chart "gaps" would confirm sector-wide weakness.

S&P 500

• The market had a volatile reaction to the Fed's rate cut announcement, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high of 66.26 before selling off sharply and then closing near unchanged.
• The hosts noted that the market seems to be giving the Fed a "huge pass" and that through the lens of the market, "everything is fine."
• Valuations are considered high, and one host questioned what the next catalyst for the market would be now that the Fed meeting and earnings season are over.
• A key theme is that market participants have learned that sell-offs have been "transitory," and there is a continuous flow of passive investment into the market.

Takeaways

• The market is currently at all-time highs but may be lacking a clear near-term catalyst to move higher.
• Despite high valuations and some underlying economic softness, the prevailing investor sentiment seems to be to buy any dips.
• The lack of a strong reaction to the Fed's rate cut suggests the move was fully priced in, and investors should watch for the next major economic or geopolitical event to drive market direction.

Regional Banks (KRE)

• The regional bank ETF, KRE, initially rallied on the Fed news but gave back some of its gains.
• The hosts expressed disappointment in the group's performance, noting it has not kept up with large-cap banks (BKX) or the broader market (S&P 500).
• This underperformance is seen as a potential warning sign for the broader economy, as regional banks are crucial for small business growth.
• A significant technical warning was issued: The recent high in the KRE around $65 could be forming the right shoulder of a large, bearish head and shoulders pattern that dates back to 2018.

Takeaways

• Investors should watch the KRE for continued underperformance, as it could signal underlying weakness in the U.S. economy.
• The potential for a bearish "head and shoulders" technical pattern is a major risk factor. A breakdown from current levels could lead to a significant decline.
• The group's inability to rally convincingly on what should be positive news (rate cuts potentially helping net interest margins) is a red flag.

AI Sector (NVIDIA, Oracle, Broadcom)

• The hosts highlighted the immense concentration in a handful of AI-related stocks, noting their combined market cap is now larger than the economy of China.
• A warning from analyst Marko Kolonovic was cited, suggesting that if the AI trade "comes undone," the market could "crash."
• NVIDIA (NVDA) was singled out for its weakness, closing down on the day.
  • This was attributed to news that China is telling its tech companies not to buy NVIDIA chips.
  • It was noted that NVDA failed to make a new high despite a stream of positive news about AI-related capital expenditures. The host believes NVDA is "headed lower."
• Broadcom (AVGO) and Oracle (ORCL) were also mentioned as stocks to watch.
  • The host pointed out large "gaps" on their charts from previous earnings reports. Filling these gaps (i.e., the stocks trading down to those levels) would be a bearish signal for the AI sector.

Takeaways

• The AI trade is seen as extremely crowded and a source of systemic risk for the entire market due to its concentration.
• NVIDIA's recent price action is a concern. Its inability to rally on good news and its vulnerability to U.S.-China tensions make it a stock to watch closely for signs of weakness.
• Investors should monitor the price action of Broadcom (AVGO) and Oracle (ORCL). If they begin to sell off and "fill the gaps" on their charts, it could signal that the broader AI-fueled rally is losing momentum.

Gold

• Gold's recent 11% surge to all-time highs was described as a "massive move."
• The hosts noted that gold was rallying at the same time as the stock market, which is unusual. This suggests gold is trading as if there is a "severe risk to the market" that stock investors are ignoring.
• The bullish case for gold is supported by:
  • Continued strong buying from central banks, which now own more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the "first time ever."
  • The expectation of a weaker U.S. dollar.
• Despite a small pullback on the day of the Fed meeting, one host stated, "the gold trade is intact" and that everything he heard from the Fed reinforces his view that gold is "headed higher."
• A Deutsche Bank report was mentioned that raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,000 per ounce.

Takeaways

• The powerful move in gold may be a warning signal of underlying risks that are not being reflected in the stock market.
• The fundamental backdrop for gold appears strong, driven by central bank demand and a potentially weaker dollar.
• Investors may consider gold as a portfolio diversifier or a hedge against potential market turmoil, as suggested by a Wall Street Journal article mentioned in the podcast.

US Dollar (DXY)

• The hosts have a bearish view on the U.S. Dollar.
• The post-Fed price action did "nothing to change my view that the dollar will continue to head lower."
• Specific levels mentioned:
  • Dollar-Euro was seen surpassing 1.19 and is believed to be headed to 1.25.
  • Dollar-Yen is expected to head below 140.

Takeaways

• Continued dollar weakness is the base-case scenario for the podcast hosts.
• A weaker dollar is typically a tailwind for commodities like gold and can also be beneficial for U.S. multinational companies that earn a large portion of their revenue overseas.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin was mentioned briefly in the context of assets that sold off from their highs following the Fed announcement.
• It was grouped with gold as an asset that had seen recent strength but pulled back on the day.

Takeaways

• The podcast provided very little specific insight into Bitcoin, other than noting its price action was correlated with gold's on the day of the Fed meeting.

StubHub (STUB)

• The online ticket seller StubHub had its IPO, trading under the ticker STUB.
• It priced its IPO at $23.50 per share but closed its first day of trading down 5.6%.
• The company is not yet profitable, reporting a Q1 net loss of $35.9 million.
• The IPO was mentioned as part of a broader "tech IPO resurgence."

Takeaways

• The weak debut of STUB suggests that even with a more active IPO market, investors are being selective and may not have an appetite for unprofitable companies.
• Investors interested in the IPO market should watch the performance of recent offerings like STUB as a gauge of market sentiment.

Lyft (LYFT)

• Lyft (LYFT) shares surged 13% to their highest level since May 2022.
• The rally was driven by the announcement that Lyft and Waymo (owned by Google/Alphabet) are expanding their autonomous ride-hailing partnership to Nashville in 2026.
• This news was seen as a major positive for Lyft and a sign of intensifying competition in the robotaxi space for rivals like Uber (UBER), whose shares declined.

Takeaways

• The partnership with Waymo is a significant positive catalyst for Lyft, validating its strategy and giving it a key position in the future of autonomous ride-hailing.
• The robotaxi sector is becoming a more competitive field, and this partnership strengthens Lyft's position against competitors.