The recent sharp sell-off in Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) is considered a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors comfortable with high volatility. For Palantir (PLTR), a bearish chart pattern suggests the stock could fall towards a $120 price target, which may present a better entry point. Consider avoiding Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) at its current price, as a pullback towards the $165-$170 range is anticipated. Be cautious with memory stock SanDisk (SNDK), as its massive rally is viewed as a potential bubble that could get cut in half by 2026. Finally, monitor Bitcoin (BTC) as it approaches MicroStrategy's average cost basis near $77,000, as a drop below this key level could trigger market stress.

Gold (XAU) & Silver (XAG)

• Both precious metals experienced a significant sell-off following the news of Kevin Warsh's potential appointment as Fed Chair. Gold was down 7% and Silver was down a staggering 17% in a single day.
• The reason cited for the drop is the expectation that Warsh will be more of an inflation hawk, leading to a stronger US Dollar, which is typically bearish for commodities priced in dollars.
• Despite the sharp decline, the hosts believe the long-term bullish case for gold and silver is still intact and that the move is not over.
• The recent volatility was anticipated, with the hosts previously stating that while fundamentals were strong, the metals were entering a period of extreme volatility.

Takeaways

• The sharp, one-day drop in gold and silver is seen as a reaction to a more "hawkish" Fed policy expectation, which strengthens the dollar.
• For long-term believers in the precious metals thesis, this "rough little patch" could present a buying opportunity. One host explicitly stated they believe you can buy both gold and silver at these lower prices.
• Investors should be prepared for continued high volatility in this sector. The 17% single-day drop in silver highlights the significant risk, earning it the "widow maker" comparison.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin is described as being unable to "get out of its own way," floundering at levels last seen in late November.
• A key point of concern is Bitcoin's underperformance relative to gold. While gold was making new all-time highs, Bitcoin was struggling, which challenges the "store of value" narrative for BTC.
• A specific risk level mentioned is MicroStrategy's (MSTR) average cost basis for its Bitcoin holdings, which is estimated to be near $77,000 per coin. As the price of Bitcoin approaches this level, it could create market stress.
• New risks for Bitcoin in this cycle include the influence of ETFs (which could lead to mass selling) and the stability of large stablecoins. A "break the buck" event in a major stablecoin is presented as a potential disaster scenario.

Takeaways

• Bitcoin's inability to rally alongside gold during a period of risk-asset strength is a major red flag for BTC enthusiasts.
• Investors should monitor the price of Bitcoin in relation to MicroStrategy's average cost basis (around $77,000). A drop below this level could trigger forced selling or other "strange things" in the market.
• The introduction of spot ETFs and the reliance on stablecoins introduce new, systemic risks that were not present in previous cycles.

Apple (AAPL)

• Apple reported a "huge beatdown" quarter with a fine outlook and surprisingly strong results from China (up 38% year-over-year).
• Despite the strong report, the stock was down about 1%.
• The bearish argument is that Apple faces rising input costs from memory and storage suppliers (like SanDisk and Micron), who are experiencing high demand and pricing power.
• The hosts believe Apple will not be able to pass these higher costs on to consumers, which will lead to margin contraction.
• The bullish case is a "second half story" centered on the successful rollout of Apple Intelligence and a new version of Siri. If Apple gets its AI strategy right, it could be a huge boon for the stock.

Takeaways

• A strong earnings report is not always enough to push a stock higher, especially when valuation is high and future margin concerns exist.
• Investors should watch for commentary on input costs and profit margins in Apple's future reports. This is seen as a key headwind.
• The success of Apple's AI initiatives, to be detailed at the upcoming WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference), is the key potential catalyst for the stock in the latter half of the year. A dip in the stock price before this could be a buying opportunity for believers in the AI story.

SanDisk (SNDK) & Memory Sector

• SanDisk reported a "monster number" and saw its stock open up 25%, though it faded to be up only 13% later in the day. The stock is up 160% on the year.
• The company is described as being "sold out" for years with significant pricing power due to demand for flash memory in servers.
• However, the hosts are very skeptical, viewing it as a "meme stock" and warning that customers are likely double or triple ordering, creating an artificial sense of demand.
• A very specific and bearish prediction was made: the stock will "get cut in half and maybe worse at some point in 2026."
• The price action of related memory and storage stocks was seen as a warning sign: Western Digital (WDC) was down 7.25%, Seagate (STX) was down 5.5%, and Micron (MU) was unchanged on the day of SanDisk's massive pop.

Takeaways

• The price action in SanDisk is being viewed as a potential "last mania" of the AI trade. The stock's fade from its opening highs is a very bearish signal for the sector and possibly the broader market.
• Investors buying at these elevated levels are warned about the cyclical nature of the memory business. The current boom is expected to turn into a bust.
• The weakness in related stocks like WDC, STX, and MU on a day of supposedly great news for the sector suggests the market is skeptical of the sustainability of this trend. This is a classic "sell the news" scenario.

Palantir (PLTR)

• The stock is down about 28% from its recent all-time high of $207.5.
• Technically, the stock has formed a "mother of all head and shoulders tops," a very bearish chart pattern.
• The measured move from this technical pattern suggests a potential downside target of about $120.
• Valuation is a major concern, with the stock trading at extremely high multiples of sales, not earnings.
• While the hosts are bearish, they advise against shorting the stock right before its earnings report, as CEO Alex Karp is a good storyteller and could deliver a strong number and guidance.

Takeaways

• Palantir exhibits significant technical weakness, suggesting more downside could be coming.
• For investors who have been waiting to get into the stock, a potential entry point could be around the $120 level, which is the target derived from the head and shoulders pattern.
• The stock is not considered a buy at its current price of $149 due to both technical and valuation risks.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• Expectations for AMD's upcoming earnings are high, with the stock trading near its all-time high of $267.
• The stock previously gapped up from $165 to over $200 in early October.
• The hosts believe the stock is due for a pullback and is "subsequently headed" back to the $165 to $170 level, which would fill the entire gap from the October breakout.
• The hosts are not buyers of AMD at its current price.

Takeaways

• AMD is considered over-extended after its rapid run-up from $165 to $265.
• A potential downside target and a more attractive entry point for the stock is in the $165-$170 range.
• Investors should be cautious heading into the earnings report, as a pullback seems more likely than a significant move higher from current levels.

Google (GOOGL)

• Google has become the new "AI darling" as other big tech names have cooled off, with the stock trading at all-time highs around $335.
• The hosts acknowledge the bull case: Google is a winner in the AI race with its massive installed user base and Google Cloud business.
• However, the primary concern is valuation. The hosts believe the stock is now fairly priced after its run.
• They point to a huge deceleration in expected earnings growth (from 32% this year to just 8% adjusted in 2025) as a reason why the stock should not get a higher valuation multiple.

Takeaways

• While Google is a strong company with a great AI story, the stock is considered fully valued at current levels.
• The hosts do not recommend buying the stock at its all-time highs, as they see limited upside based on current earnings growth projections.
• The stock has reached the price target one host calculated months ago ($335), suggesting the easy money has been made.

Amazon (AMZN)

• The key driver for Amazon's stock is the performance of its cloud division, AWS. The stock previously gapped up when AWS showed re-acceleration.
• If AWS decelerates, similar to what Microsoft saw with Azure, the stock is expected to fall back to the $220 level (it's currently trading at $241).
• A unique angle was presented: Amazon recently announced 16,000 layoffs. The hosts speculate that the company may be hesitant to issue blowout guidance that sends the stock to a new all-time high, as the "optics would be horrible" so soon after announcing major job cuts.

Takeaways

• Amazon's upcoming earnings report is all about AWS. Continued acceleration is needed to justify the stock's price.
• There is a non-fundamental risk that the company may intentionally guide conservatively to manage the public relations around its recent layoffs.
• A beat-and-raise is not seen as a guarantee to take the stock above its prior high of $259. A deceleration in AWS could send the stock down to $220.