Finding The Best Stocks In The Market with Josh Brown
Finding The Best Stocks In The Market with Josh Brown
Podcast1 hr 18 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Long-term investors seeking technology exposure could build a position in QQQ gradually through dollar-cost averaging, while accounting for concentration risk and the possibility of a sharp drawdown.
  • Watch Amazon (AMZN)’s next quarterly results: AWS growth exceeding expense growth was identified as a key potential catalyst.
  • Consider Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) only if its shares sell off further and search growth stabilizes; the discussion framed a roughly 10% decline as a conditional buying opportunity, not a firm target.
Detailed Analysis

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL, GOOG)

  • Google was described as a high-quality company, but its shares had fallen substantially from their highs at the time of recording.
  • The discussion highlighted a slowdown in search growth to 12%, along with deceleration in YouTube growth and misses in several reported categories. A key question is whether people are beginning to use AI chatbots instead of traditional search.
  • Josh Brown argued that Alphabet may have an advantage because it can pair its AI models with its own cloud-computing infrastructure. He suggested that, if owning both the model and the compute proves important, a 10% sell-off in Alphabet could look like a buying opportunity in hindsight. This was a conditional view, not a specific recommendation.

Takeaways

  • Track whether search growth and YouTube growth stabilize, and whether AI products can offset any pressure on traditional search.
  • The transcript’s bullish case depends partly on Alphabet’s ability to use its own models and computing infrastructure effectively; that outcome is uncertain.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta’s AI spending and capital-expenditure plans have been a source of investor concern. Its shares have seen sharp rallies and declines, making the stock a volatile holding in the speakers’ view.
  • The launch of Meta’s Muse AI product helped lift the shares, but that rally partly reversed. The speakers also questioned how widely Muse is being adopted and noted that some online platforms are blocking AI agents from completing transactions.
  • Meta’s large user base was presented as a potential advantage for distributing AI products. The discussion also noted Meta’s ability to build its own computing capacity rather than relying entirely on outside cloud providers.
  • A proposed $100 billion equity raise and convertible preferred shares were described as potential sources of dilution and an overhang for shareholders.

Takeaways

  • Follow evidence of real AI adoption and monetization, rather than relying only on product launches or short-term share-price moves.
  • Consider the trade-off between Meta’s potential AI and infrastructure advantages and the capital needs and potential dilution discussed in the episode.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The speaker said he owns Amazon and was awaiting its next quarterly report at the time of recording.
  • The central issue discussed was whether AWS revenue growth can outpace expense growth. The speaker said the stock has tended to react better when cloud growth exceeds expense growth.
  • Amazon’s advertising business was mentioned as a potential asset as digital assistants and AI change how people interact with online services. The company’s investment in Anthropic was also noted.

Takeaways

  • Monitor AWS growth relative to expenses; the discussion identified this as a key driver of investor sentiment.
  • The transcript offered a potential advertising and AI opportunity, but did not establish how much those businesses may contribute to future results.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA was cited as a leading AI-era company, but the speakers emphasized that even the strongest stocks can fall sharply. NVIDIA and other favored stocks fell substantially during the 2022 downturn.
  • The discussion questioned whether some semiconductor demand and earnings may have been pulled forward. NVIDIA’s upcoming results were mentioned as a possible test of whether growth expectations remain supported.
  • The broader semiconductor group was described as being in a bear market at the time, despite strong expected earnings growth in parts of the sector.

Takeaways

  • Treat strong AI demand and past stock performance as separate questions: the company’s prospects may be strong while its shares remain vulnerable to changing expectations.
  • Watch for evidence that demand and earnings growth are continuing, rather than assuming that recent orders will translate into sustained future growth.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Micron was used as an example of a semiconductor stock with a low earnings multiple—about five times earnings was cited in the discussion.
  • The speakers also raised the possibility that semiconductor earnings could be near a peak or that demand had been pulled forward. Micron’s upcoming results were mentioned as a checkpoint.

Takeaways

  • A low earnings multiple does not, by itself, establish that a stock is cheap if earnings may be unusually high or could decline.
  • The transcript’s key watchpoint is whether future results confirm that demand is durable.

Semiconductor Equipment: KLA (KLAC) and Applied Materials (AMAT)

  • KLA and Applied Materials were cited in a discussion of semiconductor companies whose shares had already declined.
  • Applied Materials was said to have been cut roughly in half. The speakers debated whether the sector’s earnings growth was concentrated in a small number of companies and whether earnings expectations could be revised downward.

Takeaways

  • Assess individual companies rather than assuming all semiconductor stocks benefit equally from AI-related demand.
  • The discussion identified falling share prices and the possibility of lower earnings expectations as relevant risks; it did not give price targets or specific buy recommendations.

Caterpillar (CAT)

  • Caterpillar was described as a beneficiary of industrial and data-center-related spending, but its shares had risen sharply before pulling back.
  • At the time of recording, the speakers cited a roughly 10% one-day decline and a decline of about 40% from recent highs. They also noted that the stock had risen about 300% from its 2025 lows.
  • The discussion suggested that investors may be reassessing expectations for infrastructure spending as large technology companies indicate they may not need to increase capital budgets as much as previously expected.

Takeaways

  • Caterpillar illustrates how a company can have exposure to a strong investment theme while still facing sharp valuation and expectation swings.
  • Track whether data-center and infrastructure spending plans support further demand, rather than extrapolating recent share gains.

Fortinet (FTNT) and ServiceNow (NOW)

  • Fortinet and ServiceNow were mentioned among stocks experiencing steep declines on the day of recording, with ServiceNow down about 20% and Fortinet down about 10%.
  • The conversation did not offer company-specific analysis or explain the moves in detail.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no clear investment thesis for either stock. Further company-specific research would be needed before drawing a conclusion from the cited price moves.

Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Apple (AAPL), and Netflix (NFLX)

  • Microsoft was said to have fallen as much as 30% from its all-time high at one point during the year discussed.
  • Oracle was mentioned in connection with large AI-related spending commitments and as another company whose capital-spending plans were being closely watched.
  • Apple was described as making all-time highs while much of technology was correcting. The speakers also noted that Apple shares had fallen 10% after a prior quarterly report.
  • Netflix was described as being in a different category from the other large technology companies; its shares were said to have fallen about 50% from a high at one point.

Takeaways

  • These examples show that large, well-known companies can have very different share-price behavior and business drivers; the transcript does not give a unified view on the group.
  • For cloud and AI-related companies, compare spending commitments with evidence of revenue growth. For Apple and Netflix, the discussion provides price context but little company-specific investment analysis.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla was described as an unusual example of a company that came public at a comparatively small market value and later grew to a roughly trillion-dollar company, allowing retail investors to participate in much of that growth.
  • The speakers contrasted Tesla’s public-market history with newer high-profile technology companies that may remain private until they reach very large valuations.
  • Tesla, SpaceX, and other Elon Musk-related projects were mentioned as a possible future combination of AI models and computing infrastructure, but the speakers were uncertain about how those businesses might fit together.

Takeaways

  • Tesla was discussed mainly as an example of how public-market timing can affect who benefits from a company’s growth, not as a specific stock recommendation.
  • The transcript does not provide a valuation view or price target for Tesla.

IQVIA (IQV)

  • Josh Brown said IQVIA had recently appeared on his list of leading stocks, based on factors including its stock trend, company quality, earnings, and sales growth.
  • He described the company as a roughly $26–27 billion market-capitalization business that he had not previously followed closely.

Takeaways

  • The episode’s broader screening approach is to start with companies already showing strong trends and business performance, then research why they are leading.
  • IQVIA was offered as an example of that process, not as a detailed buy recommendation.

Blackstone (BX) and Goldman Sachs (GS)

  • Blackstone and Goldman Sachs came up in a discussion of banks, alternative lenders, and the possibility that those markets may be signaling something about the economic or investment cycle.
  • The speaker did not argue that developments at either firm meant investors should sell the Nasdaq or technology stocks.

Takeaways

  • The transcript raises a broader point: financial-market stress can be worth monitoring without treating it as a direct signal to sell unrelated holdings.
  • No specific view, target, or recommendation for either company was provided.

Anthropic and OpenAI (Private Companies)

  • The speakers discussed both companies as central to the AI investment cycle, while questioning whether they will be the long-term winners across the AI value chain.
  • They raised concerns about the companies’ substantial computing commitments, capital needs, and reliance on external infrastructure. Anthropic was said to be considering building some of its own computing capacity.
  • Anthropic was discussed at a possible $1.5–2 trillion valuation in a future public offering. The speakers also cited rapid revenue growth alongside continuing operating losses, and debated how to interpret those figures and the companies’ infrastructure commitments.
  • The conversation noted that retail investors have had limited access to these companies in private markets and questioned how much incremental demand there would be at very high public-market valuations.

Takeaways

  • For a potential IPO, distinguish revenue growth from profitability and examine the costs and obligations required to provide computing capacity.
  • The discussion does not recommend buying either company. It highlights valuation, capital requirements, infrastructure dependence, and uncertain future demand as issues to assess.

Cerebras and SpaceX (Potential Public-Market Opportunities)

  • Cerebras was cited as an example of a technology company that went public at a very large valuation—about $100 billion was mentioned—rather than entering public markets as a smaller company.
  • SpaceX was discussed as another high-profile private company that may reach the public market at a large valuation. The speakers questioned whether ordinary investors would receive meaningful access to early-stage growth if companies list only after becoming enormous.
  • The discussion also mentioned staggered insider-sale arrangements and faster index inclusion as possible changes in how large IPOs affect investors.

Takeaways

  • A high-profile IPO is not automatically an attractive investment: consider the valuation, access to shares, and how insider sales may affect trading.
  • The episode provided no specific purchase recommendation or price target for either company.

CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS)

  • CoreWeave and Nebius were mentioned as AI-computing infrastructure companies whose shares had fallen sharply.
  • The speakers raised the possibility that companies with heavy financing needs could be vulnerable if funding becomes harder to obtain. They also said that, even if a provider runs into trouble, its computing facilities could remain valuable and be acquired or used by another company.
  • A possible funding slowdown could benefit established cloud providers and lower the cost of computing, chips, electricity, and memory, although it could hurt companies that own those assets.

Takeaways

  • These companies offer exposure to AI infrastructure but also face financing and execution risks highlighted in the conversation.
  • Evaluate the durability of customer demand and funding access; the speakers did not provide a specific view on either stock’s valuation.

Quanta Services (PWR) and AI Infrastructure

  • Quanta Services was mentioned as an example of a company that could benefit from construction and infrastructure needs associated with data centers.
  • The speakers also named power providers, chip manufacturers, memory suppliers, and software companies as possible beneficiaries of AI spending, while stressing that they did not know which part of the value chain would capture the most profit.

Takeaways

  • AI infrastructure is a broad investment theme, not a guarantee that every related company will benefit equally.
  • The episode’s central question was which businesses can turn demand for AI computing into durable profits; it did not name a definitive winner.

QQQ and Broad Market Index Exposure

  • The speakers discussed the QQQ as a way to gain exposure to large Nasdaq-listed companies and suggested that investors who believe in long-term technology innovation might consider systematic investing, such as dollar-cost averaging.
  • Josh Brown defended market-cap-weighted indexes as a low-cost way for long-term investors to own large, established companies. He said their composition changes over time as successful companies grow and weaker ones shrink in importance.
  • The speakers also warned that large companies make up a substantial share of major indexes, creating concentration risk. They discussed a possible 25% drawdown as a hypothetical scenario, not a forecast.

Takeaways

  • The transcript favors having a planned investment process over reacting to daily market moves. For long-term investors, gradual contributions can reduce the pressure to time an entry point, but do not remove market risk.
  • Consider whether a market-cap-weighted portfolio’s concentration in the largest companies fits your time horizon and risk tolerance.

Tax-Loss Harvesting, Custom Indexing, and 130/30 Strategies

  • The discussion described strong markets as making tax losses scarce, leading to increased interest in 130/30 and 140/40 strategies. In a simplified 130/30 example, a portfolio uses long and short positions to seek market exposure while creating opportunities to realize losses.
  • Custom indexing was presented as a way to pursue index-like returns while harvesting losses from individual holdings. The speakers emphasized that after-tax returns, costs, and client circumstances matter.
  • Josh Brown also noted that reducing volatility can limit upside over the long term, while other portfolio strategies may be designed to shift toward cash or manage risk during severe declines.

Takeaways

  • Tax-focused strategies may be relevant for investors with taxable gains, but their usefulness depends on costs, taxes, implementation, and individual circumstances.
  • Understand what a strategy owns, how it uses leverage or short positions, and what it is designed to do in falling markets before investing.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was mentioned only as a comparison: the speakers said some investors viewed NVIDIA as a Bitcoin-related play in 2022.
  • The transcript gave no Bitcoin investment thesis, price view, or recommendation.

Takeaways

  • No actionable Bitcoin insight was provided in this discussion.
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Episode Description
Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management and co-host of The Compound and Friends, joins Dan Nathan for a wide-ranging conversation recorded on a volatile morning for AI stocks. They dig into why Josh calls this “the age of AI” rather than a trade. They also cover why he thinks the long-term winners will have to own their compute end to end, and whether Anthropic’s upcoming IPO can draw real retail demand at a $1.5–2 trillion valuation. Josh also explains his framework for finding the best stocks in the market: start with the stocks that are already going up. He covers how Ritholtz uses custom indexing and 130/30 strategies to harvest tax losses. And he makes the case that Elon Musk may have built the last trillion-dollar company that everyday investors got to ride from the start. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
About RiskReversal Pod
RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Pod

By RiskReversal Media

Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech.  We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions. Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets. Tune into the RiskReversal Pod Monday through Friday for succinct 30 minute pod drops of market analysis that you won't find anywhere else. For new episodes of On The Tape with Danny Moses, search "On The Tape" in your favorite podcast platform. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media