Danny Moses: Gold's Make or Break Moment is Here
Danny Moses: Gold's Make or Break Moment is Here
Podcast28 min 33 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Treat Apple (AAPL) as a defensive holding rather than a high-growth play while its valuation sits at an elevated 33 times forward earnings.

Accumulate shares of Microsoft (MSFT) on weakness near its strong historical support level of $355 to capture its unique blend of cloud growth and stability.

Anticipate strong near-term earnings from major oil companies like Exxon and Chevron, but prepare for rising political headwinds and public scrutiny over high profits.

Consider accumulating Gold during price pullbacks, as resilient support near $3,900 and macroeconomic vulnerabilities create a strong long-term tailwind.

Detailed Analysis

Apple (AAPL)

  • The stock is trading at very high valuations, near 33 times next year's earnings.
  • While many companies are facing pressure from heavy AI spending, Apple is being rewarded by the market for sitting on the sidelines and acting as a safer, defensive "consumer staple" style play.
  • The company faces risks related to high consumer device pricing and whether everyday consumers will continue paying up for memory chips and AI-enabled phone features.

Takeaways

  • Treat Apple as a defensive holding rather than a high-growth tech stock while valuations remain elevated at 33x forward earnings.
  • Monitor upcoming earnings for consumer adoption rates of higher-priced phone models.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Trading near $383, the stock has faced some stagnation recently compared to the broader AI and semiconductor hype.
  • Critical support levels have held around $355 (seen in April 2025 and March).
  • Considered one of the most important foundational companies globally, blending old-economy stability with new-economy cloud (Azure) and AI initiatives.

Takeaways

  • Look to buy shares of Microsoft on weakness, viewing it as a relatively defensive mega-cap technology play.

Energy Sector (Exxon, Chevron, Valero)

  • Major energy companies are expected to report exceptionally strong earnings, driven by robust refining margins and elevated oil prices.
  • These companies face potential political and bipartisan blowback and negative public scrutiny over high profits, regardless of how they manage their messaging.

Takeaways

  • Anticipate strong fundamental earnings from major refiners and drillers, but prepare for increased regulatory and political headwinds in the aftermath.

Gold

  • Despite pressures from a stronger US dollar, higher interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts, gold has held up resiliently, repeatedly testing and withstanding support around $3,900.
  • Future potential tailwinds include macroeconomic instability, weakening global currencies, and a potential pivot by the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish stance.

Takeaways

  • Consider accumulating gold during pullbacks rather than selling, as macro vulnerabilities create a supportive backdrop for the asset class.
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Episode Description
Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss rising global yields and stress points in markets, focusing on Japan’s weakening yen, deteriorating bond market, and risks around Japan’s role as a major US Treasury holder and potential carry-trade unwind, with BOJ and Fed meetings ahead. They note August’s tendency toward volatility and how attention may shift from strong earnings to macro concerns as AI-driven CapEx pressures free cash flow at hyperscalers, raising valuation questions and fears of open-source competition. They preview key earnings including Apple (seen as a defensive AI conduit despite a rich valuation), Microsoft, Meta, and major energy firms, which may post strong results but avoid political blowback. They discuss mixed consumer signals from Capital One, AmEx, and retailers, reiterate a constructive longer-term view on gold tied to Fed policy, and share updates on Moses’s podcasts, Substack work, and a veterans charity event. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
About RiskReversal Pod
RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Pod

By RiskReversal Media

Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech.  We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions. Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets. Tune into the RiskReversal Pod Monday through Friday for succinct 30 minute pod drops of market analysis that you won't find anywhere else. For new episodes of On The Tape with Danny Moses, search "On The Tape" in your favorite podcast platform. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media