Historical midterm patterns suggest a relief rally in Bitcoin (BTC) may not mean downside risk is over, so avoid treating a near-term bounce as confirmation of a lasting recovery. If a post-midterm decline occurs, the speaker expects it may be milder and shorter than in previous cycles, but this is uncertain and no price target or timeframe is provided.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The discussion compares Bitcoin’s price action around U.S. midterm elections:
  • In 2014, Bitcoin rallied about 39%, but then fell 53%.
  • In 2018, Bitcoin mostly consolidated before a 52% decline.
  • In 2022, Bitcoin fell about 25% on midterm day and reached a bear-market low shortly afterward.
• The speaker says the time between the post-midterm decline and the bear-market low has been getting shorter, while the decline from the midterm period to the low has been getting shallower.
• The speaker’s outlook is that any relief rally around the midterms could be followed by more downside, but that decline may be milder and resolve more quickly than in prior cycles.

Takeaways

• The historical comparison suggests midterm-related relief rallies may not signal that downside risk has passed.
• The speaker expects a potentially shallower, quicker downturn, but this is a cycle-based view—not a guaranteed outcome or a specific trading recommendation.