Consider buying risk assets on any market weakness, as the long-term trend is supported by an expanding money supply. For Bitcoin (BTC), be prepared for a potential price dip driven by sentiment around its historical four-year cycle. This anticipated dip is viewed as a significant buying opportunity, not a reason to sell. The long-term bullish case for BTC is tied to its expected correlation with the money supply, which is anticipated to strengthen significantly around 2026. Therefore, any short-term volatility is seen as a chance to accumulate for the long term.

Risk Assets

• The speaker is explicitly bullish on risk assets.
• This view is based on the long-term expectation that the money supply (M2) will continue to increase, which historically has been a tailwind for asset prices.
• The speaker acknowledges the potential for short-term volatility and dips but views them as opportunities.

Takeaways

• The overall message is to be a buyer of risk assets during periods of market weakness.
• Investors with a long-term horizon might consider using any market dips to add to their positions, as the speaker believes the long-term trend for risk assets is upward.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker discusses the well-known four-year cycle in Bitcoin, noting that a significant portion of the market (30-50%) and many early adopters ("OG Bitcoiners") believe in it.
• This collective belief could lead to an "extended dip" in the price of Bitcoin.
• However, the speaker does not believe this potential dip will be "deep" and explicitly states it will be a "buying period".
• The long-term bullish case is tied to the expectation that Bitcoin's correlation to the M2 money supply will "return pretty aggressively in 2026".
• Since the speaker believes M2 is "only going higher", they are a confident buyer of Bitcoin for the long term.

Takeaways

• Expect a Dip, Prepare to Buy: Investors should be prepared for a potential price dip in Bitcoin, driven by sentiment around the four-year cycle. This is presented as a buying opportunity, not a reason to sell.
• Long-Term Macro Catalyst: The core long-term bullish thesis is based on the expansion of the money supply. The speaker anticipates this will become a major driver for Bitcoin's price, especially around the year 2026.
• Sentiment is Bullish: Despite the potential for a short-to-medium term dip, the overall sentiment expressed is strongly bullish.