Consider taking profits on Monero (XMR) as it is significantly overextended; avoid buying now and watch for a potential re-entry after a correction towards its 10-day moving average. Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching strong resistance between $100,000 and $103,000, where it is expected

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker notes that Bitcoin is the main story, having experienced a notable technical breakout and setting a new daily cycle high.
• Several factors are contributing to the positive momentum:
  • Favorable Inflation Data: Recent data has eased fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve, boosting risk-on sentiment.
  • ETF Inflows: There has been a resurgence in ETF inflows, with the previous day marking the largest net inflow of the year so far. Institutional buying is starting to make a more meaningful contribution to price appreciation.
  • Regulatory Clarity: Ongoing discussions around the Clarity Act are seen as a net positive, providing much-needed regulatory clarity for the crypto space, which is boosting overall sentiment.
  • Spot Volume: Spot buying volume is well above average, the highest since mid-November. This is a positive sign as it indicates buying from long-term investors rather than short-term traders.

Takeaways

• Bullish Sentiment: The overall sentiment for Bitcoin is bullish, with several fundamental and technical factors aligning for a potential move higher.
• Key Resistance Levels to Watch:
  • The Bull Market Support Band (composed of the 20-week simple and 21-week exponential moving averages) is the first major resistance zone.
  • The psychological $100,000 level is a significant hurdle.
  • A cluster of trading activity creates resistance around the $103,000 level. The speaker expects Bitcoin could "run out of steam" in the $100,000 - $103,000 range.
  • The 200-day moving averages are also resistance around $106,000 - $107,000.
• Potential for a Correction:
  • Bitcoin is nearing the end of a 60-day cycle, which often precedes a price correction.
  • If rejected from the resistance zone, a correction of 12-13% could bring the price down to the $87,000 level.
  • Because the peak is occurring late in the cycle, any potential correction is expected to be "short and sort of abrupt" rather than a slow bleed.
• Long-Term Bullish Confirmation: A break and hold above the $116,000 level would be a very strong signal that the longer-term bear market is over and a new macro uptrend has begun.

Privacy Coins (Sector)

• The "privacy coin" narrative is described as "really heating up" and the sector has been "absolutely ripping."
• The speakers believe this sector could be one of the stronger performing sectors of 2026.
• Drivers for the trend include:
  • Functionality: The ability to transact privately without being traced.
  • Speculation: General speculative hype is amplifying the price moves.
  • Regulatory Push: Increased surveillance and reporting requirements for on-chain activity, particularly in the EU and UK, are pushing users toward privacy-focused alternatives.
• Zcash (ZEC) was mentioned as having a breakout a month or two prior, which helped kickstart the current narrative. It was also noted that ZEC has a high concentration of whale holders who can significantly influence the price.

Takeaways

• Strong Narrative: The privacy coin theme is a powerful narrative to watch in the current market.
• Potential for a Reset: While the long-term trend looks strong, the sector has run up significantly and could be due for a "bit of a reset" or correction.
• Risk Factor (U.S. Investors): The speakers caution that holding or transacting with privacy coins could attract extra scrutiny from tax authorities like the IRS. It was anecdotally mentioned that simply reporting ownership of these coins could put you "on some kind of list."

Monero (XMR)

• Monero has been performing exceptionally well, with one community member's trade idea showing a 45% gain in about two days.
• The trade was entered at a $520 Monero price, and the price has since surpassed the $750 target, trading at $775 during the podcast.
• The chart is described as "overheated" and "wildly overextended."
• Several technical indicators are flashing sell signals or suggesting an overbought condition:
  • A perfected DeMark 9 sell setup.
  • Trading far outside the upper Bollinger Bands.
  • The price is significantly above its 10-day moving average, suggesting a 20-30% drop would be needed just to revert to the mean.

Takeaways

• Do Not Chase: The speakers strongly advise against buying Monero at its current price. Chasing a chart that has already run up this much is a high-risk strategy.
• Consider Taking Profits: For investors already holding XMR, now might be a good time to consider taking some profits off the table.
• Potential Re-entry Point: A better opportunity to buy may present itself after a correction. A pullback to its 10-day moving average was specifically mentioned as a potential area to consider entering a position.