Consider Hyperliquid (HYPE) for its exceptional strength driven by a token buyback mechanism, or its publicly traded proxy PER for US investors seeking exposure. With Bitcoin facing short-term headwinds, gold and silver are presented as a stronger investment after a healthy correction has reset their bullish trend. The AI-focused pharmaceutical sector is outperforming the broader market, with companies like Eli Lilly (LLY), Novartis (NVS), and Merck & Co. (MRK) showing resilience. These companies are leveraging AI to accelerate drug development, providing a strong tailwind for growth. Exercise caution with Bitcoin (BTC), as it may see further downside toward a support level of $64,000 before a potential long-term bottom in Q2 2026.

US Stock Market Indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell)

• The overall market sentiment is bearish due to geopolitical tensions (Iran nuclear talks) and signs of decreasing liquidity (M2 money supply has rolled over).
• Major indices are losing key technical support levels.
  • The S&P 500 has broken below its major daily moving averages.
  • The Nasdaq has broken below its bull market support band (20-week moving average), which is described as "especially ugly and definitely noteworthy." This is partly attributed to a transition where large, bloated software companies are losing value while some mid-caps are doing well.
  • The Russell 2000 is also losing its support levels.

Takeaways

• The market is in a precarious position. The speaker is watching to see if the current dip is a short-term reaction to news or the beginning of a larger downturn.
• A key indicator to watch for a market recovery is the Global M2 money supply. A reversal in its downward trend would be a positive sign for risk assets.
• For the Nasdaq, a crucial sign of stabilization would be reclaiming the 20-week moving average.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The short-term outlook is bearish, with the speaker's bias being "definitely to the downside."
• Bearish Signals:
  • The chart looks "ugly."
  • The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at "bear market low levels," indicating it's entering oversold territory.
  • There is a high probability of "more downside to come."
• Potential for a Bounce:
  • Bitcoin is described as "pretty overextended to the downside" and "very, very oversold."
  • It has had five consecutive red monthly candles, a rare occurrence that has only happened two or three times in its history, suggesting a bounce is due.
  • There is a CME gap up to approximately $84,000. The speaker notes this could act as a "bullish catalyst" for a "reflexive bounce" to fill that gap. However, the base case is that after such a bounce, Bitcoin would see another leg down.
• Key Support Levels:
  • A "massive support" zone is identified based on 2024 trading activity and the 2021 cycle highs.
  • Top of the support range: Low $70,000s.
  • Middle of the range: Around $64,000, described as a "pretty reasonable level."
  • Bottom of the range: Mid-$50,000s, though this is seen as less likely.
• Longer-Term Outlook:
  • A market bottom is anticipated sometime in Q2 2026. This is based on the expectation that liquidity will improve, a new Fed chair will be in place (May), and positive economic data (PMI prints) will emerge.
  • This bear market is not expected to be as severe as previous cycles (e.g., 80-90% drops). The reasoning is that the macro-economic backdrop is more favorable now (economic expansion, ending quantitative tightening) than in past cycles.

Takeaways

• Investors should be prepared for more potential downside in Bitcoin in the short term, with key support levels to watch in the $64,000 to low $70,000 range.
• A short-term rally to the $84,000 level is possible to fill a CME gap, but this would likely be a temporary "reflexive bounce" before heading lower.
• The long-term outlook is more optimistic, with a potential market bottom and reversal expected in Q2 2026. The current downturn is likened to "turning around an aircraft carrier" – it will take time.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

• Sentiment is extremely bullish. It's called the "single brightest spot" in the crypto market.
• HYPE was up 6% on a day when the rest of the market was down significantly.
• Key Driver: The platform recently introduced trading for commodities perpetual contracts (perps), allowing users to trade assets like gold and silver.
• This has created a "flywheel effect":
  1. The new feature attracts traders and trading volume.
  2. High volume generates massive fees for the protocol.
  3. The fees are used to buy back the HYPE token.
  4. The buybacks increase the token's price, attracting more attention.
• The speaker notes that if HYPE reaches its all-time high, it would be a 2x from its current price.

Takeaways

• HYPE is showing exceptional strength and is bucking the overall market trend due to its new commodities trading feature and resulting token buyback mechanism.
• It represents a unique play that is capturing value from the interest in both crypto and precious metals.

Hyperliquid Strategies (PER)

• Sentiment is bullish, positioned as a "beta play on Hyperliquid."
• PER is a publicly traded company that holds HYPE tokens in its treasury.
• Key Advantage: It offers exposure to the HYPE ecosystem for investors in jurisdictions like the US where the HYPE token may not be easily accessible. It can be bought through standard brokerage accounts like Robinhood or Kraken.
• The company is conducting a $30 million stock buyback program, which provides continuous buying pressure on the stock.
• PER acts as an "amplifier" to HYPE's performance; when HYPE goes up, PER is expected to go up even more.

Takeaways

• For investors who cannot directly buy the HYPE token, PER offers a way to gain exposure to its success.
• The combination of its holdings and its own stock buyback program makes it a strong complementary investment to the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)

• Sentiment is very bullish. The speaker states they would "rather be in gold right now than Bitcoin."
• The recent "massive correction" in gold and silver is viewed as a "healthy reset" that was needed.
• Gold:
  • Corrected almost all the way down to its 20-week moving average.
  • Crucially, the weekly uptrend did not break, which is considered a "really, really strong signal" of underlying strength.
• Silver:
  • Also had a significant reset, and its trend remains strong.
• The speaker believes the correction is over and that metals are positioned to "keep running."

Takeaways

• Precious metals are considered a "better bet" than crypto in the current market environment.
• The recent pullback provided a healthier technical setup, and the underlying bullish trend remains intact, suggesting more upside is likely.
• Investors looking for a safe haven or an asset with current momentum might consider gold and silver. A related crypto play is PAX Gold (PAXG), a token pegged to the price of gold.

AI-Focused Pharmaceutical Companies

• Sentiment is bullish. This sector is highlighted as "doing well and is continuing to do well," even bucking the broader market downturn.
• Thesis: These pharmaceutical companies are heavily investing in and implementing AI to accelerate drug trials and data processing. This allows them to bring new drugs to market "much more rapidly and much more cheaply."
• This AI-driven efficiency is expected to help them "outperform" for the rest of the year and provide "strong wind in their sails."
• Companies on the Watchlist:
  • Eli Lilly (LLY): Mentioned specifically for its strong earnings and an 8% gain on a red market day.
  • Novartis (NVS)
  • Merck & Co. (MRK)
  • McKesson (MCK)

Takeaways

• The intersection of AI and pharmaceuticals is a promising investment theme that is showing resilience against broader market weakness.
• Investors looking for growth sectors with strong narratives could research these companies, which are leveraging technology to innovate and improve their business models.

IREN (IREN)

• Sentiment is cautiously optimistic but with notable headwinds.
• Positive: IREN has successfully diversified its business model. It has pivoted from being just a Bitcoin miner to also providing AI compute power with its data centers, tapping into a high-demand market.
• Negative: As a Bitcoin miner, its profitability and stock price are still significantly influenced by the price of Bitcoin. It will be "negatively impacted by Bitcoin being in the gutter right now."
• Conclusion: While the AI pivot is a smart move, the speaker questions if it's the "best" investment right now compared to other AI plays that don't have the headwind of a falling Bitcoin price.

Takeaways

• IREN is an interesting hybrid play on both AI and Bitcoin.
• The investment's success is tied to two distinct narratives. It will likely perform best when both the AI sector and Bitcoin are doing well.
• Given the current bearish outlook on Bitcoin, other pure-play AI companies might offer a clearer path to growth in the short term. However, IREN could be a very powerful investment when Bitcoin's trend reverses.