With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates in Q1 2026, consider investing in US small-cap stocks which are poised to benefit from increased risk-taking. For exposure to the global decoupling theme, Gold and Bitcoin (BTC) are highlighted as primary assets to hedge against geopolitical instability. A specific stock to research for the rare earths trend is Energy Fuels (UUUU), which is considered a top pick with more upside potential. A longer-term opportunity exists in US refineries and oil service companies that will be involved in rebuilding Venezuela's oil sector over the next few years. Investors should be cautious with Silver due to high speculation and rising margin requirements, making Gold the preferred precious metal play.

Oil & Energy Sector

• The immediate market reaction to the events in Venezuela was muted, with the hosts calling the short-term impact on oil a "nothing burger".
• Venezuela's oil infrastructure is very outdated and its production is not at full capacity (around 1 million barrels a day). Rebuilding it will take many years and billions in investment.
• In the short term, oil supply from Venezuela may actually decline as the U.S. Navy is not allowing ships in or out.
• The long-term effect, over 1-2 years, is that a rebuilt Venezuelan oil industry could add flexibility to global supply, potentially capping oil prices from rising too high. It is not expected to cause a crash in prices.

Takeaways

• Don't expect the situation in Venezuela to cause a major, immediate crash in oil prices. The impact is a long-term story.
• The primary investment play is not on the price of oil itself, but on the companies that will be involved in the rebuilding effort.

US Refineries & Oil Service Companies

• The hosts suggest the main investment opportunity lies with companies that will help rebuild Venezuela's oil sector, particularly US refineries accustomed to processing heavy crude.
• These stocks saw huge rallies on the Friday before and the Monday of the podcast, leading to speculation that some information may have been leaked.
• Despite the initial price jump, the hosts believe this is a long-term story with "legs for another couple of years, maybe even three years."

Takeaways

• This is a multi-year investment theme. While some of the initial easy money may have been made, there is still time to "jump on the bandwagon."
• Investors should research US-based oil service companies and refineries that have the expertise to work with Venezuela's specific type of heavy crude oil.

Gold

• The price of gold was described as going "absolutely through the roof" in response to the geopolitical events.
• The hosts see this as a direct result of the accelerating "decoupling" trend between the US and China.
• Gold is considered a primary asset for a "dollar debasement" and "decoupling" investment thesis.

Takeaways

• Gold is viewed as a strong investment in the current geopolitical climate.
• It serves as a hedge against geopolitical instability and the potential for currency debasement driven by government actions and monetary policy.

Silver

• The hosts expressed a more cautious view on silver compared to gold.
• Risk Factor: There is high speculative positioning in the silver market, with over $20 billion in paper longs.
• Risk Factor: The CME is raising margin requirements, which forces traders to put up more collateral for their long positions, potentially leading to forced selling.
• The hosts question whether silver is still a pure precious metal, as its industrial use has been increasing, making it less of a pure debasement hedge than gold.

Takeaways

• Be cautious with silver. It carries specific risks not present in gold, such as high levels of speculative bets against it.
• The hosts explicitly state they "personally prefer gold and Bitcoin to silver" as bets on the decoupling theme.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• It was mentioned that Venezuela's seized or frozen assets include a 600,000 Bitcoin reserve.
• The hosts believe the US government will likely add these coins to a strategic reserve rather than selling them on the open market, following the playbook established in the previous year.
• This action is seen as potentially bullish, as it removes a large amount of supply from the market.
• Bitcoin, alongside gold, was highlighted as a preferred asset for playing the "decoupling" theme and has shown "pretty solid price action" recently.

Takeaways

• The seizure of Venezuela's Bitcoin is a net positive for the asset, as it's likely to be held off-market.
• Bitcoin is considered a strong strategic investment to hedge against geopolitical turmoil and currency debasement, similar to gold.

Rare Earths & Energy Fuels (UUUU)

• The podcast debunked social media rumors that Venezuela holds large deposits of rare earths like cobalt and antimony, calling them "hallucinations from a large language model."
• A specific stock, Energy Fuels, was mentioned as one of the hosts' "top picks" for investing in the rare earths theme.
• Energy Fuels has reportedly had a "tremendous start to the year," and the hosts believe there is "more in store" for the stock.

Takeaways

• For exposure to the rare earths sector, which is critical to the US-China decoupling theme, Energy Fuels is a specific company to research.
• The investment case is tied to securing supply chains for critical materials outside of China.

US Small Caps & General Market

• A "substantial disinflation impulse" is being observed in the US, with inflation potentially approaching the Fed's 2% target in the first quarter of 2026.
• This disinflation is expected to allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in Q1, which would be bullish for the market.
• Rate cuts are expected to "fuel small caps" and general risk-taking.
• The recent ISM manufacturing print of 47.9 (lower than expected) supports the case for impending rate cuts.

Takeaways

• The macroeconomic environment in the US is becoming favorable for risk assets.
• Upcoming Fed rate cuts could provide a significant tailwind for US small-cap stocks in particular.

Semiconductors

• The hosts noted that the manufacturing cycle is improving, highlighted by "massive chip exports from Korea and Taiwan to the US."
• The semiconductor sector was described as having a "very, very hot start of the year."

Takeaways

• The semiconductor sector is showing strong momentum and could be a key area of growth in early 2026.
• Strong export data indicates robust demand and a positive outlook for the industry.