Consider holding European and Japanese banks into 2026, as they are expected to benefit from a pro-cyclical environment and potential easing of US bank regulations. For international diversification, look to country-specific ETFs like Korea (EWY) for semiconductor exposure and Poland (EPOL) for the Ukraine rebuilding theme. UiPath (PATH) is a high-conviction stock idea for 2026, positioned to capitalize on AI's evolution into automating complex white-collar tasks. The Drones & Defense Tech sector represents a massive investment theme for 2026 due to a structural shift in military procurement. Finally, analysts are bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) for 2026, viewing it as a macro asset that will benefit from global liquidity cycles.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• A Reddit post from December 2023 was highlighted for accurately predicting Bitcoin's all-time high on October 6th, 2025, based on a historical cycle pattern.
• The hosts expressed skepticism that this simple cyclical pattern, likely tied to the halving cycle, will hold true indefinitely.
• The reasoning is that Bitcoin has matured as an asset and is now more influenced by the broader macro liquidity and business cycle.
• The involvement of major institutional players like BlackRock has turned Bitcoin into more of a macro asset than a niche tech play.
• Despite the pro-cyclical environment in 2025, assets like banks ("boomer assets") performed better than Bitcoin, as the liquidity came from commercial banks rather than central banks.
• The hosts believe Bitcoin will do well in 2026.

Takeaways

• View Bitcoin not just through its internal halving cycles, but as a macro asset sensitive to global liquidity and business cycles.
• While the hosts are bullish for 2026, investors should note that in certain economic environments (like the one in 2025), other asset classes may capture the upside from liquidity creation more effectively.
• The prediction of the next all-time high being in July 2028 based on the historical pattern is noted, but the hosts believe it could happen sooner.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• The hosts recalled their successful call during the "DeepSeek sell-off" in 2025. At the time, the consensus was that cheaper AI model training would hurt NVIDIA.
• Their contrarian view was that the commoditization of AI would accelerate the AI CapEx (Capital Expenditure) cycle, as more companies would be incentivized to invest. This view proved to be correct.
• As an example of widespread adoption, they mentioned a very small municipality in Denmark purchasing its own NVIDIA H200 chip rack for a local AI version. This signals deep commercialization of the technology.

Takeaways

• The bullish thesis for NVIDIA and the broader AI infrastructure space remains strong. The key driver is the ongoing, and even accelerating, investment cycle in AI.
• A key risk to monitor for this trade would be any sign that the major hyperscalers are slowing down their rate of investment in AI.
• The widespread adoption of AI hardware, even by small, non-tech entities, is a powerful indicator of the theme's longevity.

Investment Theme: Banks

• Banks had a great year in 2025, particularly in Europe and Japan. The strong performance of the Spanish ETF (EWP) was attributed to its heavy concentration in bank stocks.
• The hosts still hold bank positions in Europe and Japan and believe it's a good idea to continue holding them into 2026.
• A major catalyst for 2026 is the expected easing of bank regulations in the US, specifically the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR).
  • This is seen as "incredibly pro-cyclical" because it will allow banks to take on more risk and increase lending.
  • This could fuel a "melt-up year" in markets in the first half of 2026.
  • However, it also increases the risk of a more significant bust down the road.

Takeaways

• Consider exposure to the banking sector, especially in Europe and Japan, as a way to play the ongoing pro-cyclical global environment.
• The potential easing of US bank regulations is a significant tailwind for the sector and the market as a whole, potentially leading to euphoric market conditions in 2026.
• Investors should be aware that this policy also increases long-term systemic risk.

Investment Theme: Drones & Defense Tech

• Drones are identified as a "big topic" and a massive investment theme for 2026.
• The technology is fundamentally changing modern warfare, as seen on the front lines in Ukraine, where cities are covered in a "spider web" of fiber optic cables for wired drones to circumvent jamming.
• This shift will force a massive reallocation of military procurement budgets towards drones, counter-drone technology, and related infrastructure.
• DroneShield (DRO.AX), an Australian company, was mentioned as a specific play in this space.
  • The hosts were very early investors and saw gains of up to 300%.
  • However, the stock "fell off a cliff" after company insiders sold large amounts of their equity, reducing the position's gain to around 40%.

Takeaways

• The drone sector represents a significant growth opportunity driven by a structural shift in military spending.
• Investors should look for companies involved in drone manufacturing, counter-drone systems, and related components.
• The DroneShield example serves as a cautionary tale: even with a correct macro thesis, be mindful of company-specific risks like insider selling and consider taking profits on volatile, high-flying stocks.

UiPath (PATH)

• Highlighted as a specific single-stock idea for 2026.
• The company operates at the intersection of AI and robotics process automation (RPA).
• The investment thesis is tied to the evolution of AI from a "model to an agent," where AI begins to automate not just manual tasks but also complex decision-making in white-collar professions like financial services and consulting.
• This is seen as a key driver for future productivity gains.

Takeaways

• UiPath is a potential way to invest in the next phase of AI adoption, focused on automating cognitive and decision-making tasks.
• This is a play on a long-term trend of increasing productivity in the service and knowledge sectors through AI.

Investment Theme: International Equities

• Several international markets significantly outperformed the US in 2025.
  • Korea (EWY ETF): A top performer due to its heavy exposure to the semiconductor industry, which benefited from rising memory chip prices.
  • Poland (EPOL ETF): Performed well based on the thesis that it will be a primary beneficiary of funds flowing into the rebuilding of Ukraine.
  • Spain (EWP ETF): A surprise top performer (+72%), driven by its cyclical and bank-heavy market composition.
• This outperformance was aided by a weak US dollar and a uniform cyclical upswing across the globe.
• The hosts expect a similar pro-cyclical year in 2026, which should continue to benefit non-US markets.

Takeaways

• Investors should diversify beyond the US market. A pro-cyclical, weak-dollar environment can be very favorable for international equities.
• Look for country-specific ETFs that provide exposure to strong, localized themes (e.g., semiconductors, regional rebuilding, or favorable sector concentrations).
• The hosts believe the conditions that led to international outperformance in 2025 are likely to persist into 2026.

Speculative & Narrative-Driven Themes

• Rigetti Computing (RGTI):
  • This quantum computing stock was the portfolio's best performer in 2025 (+250%), acting as a "levered AI bet."
  • It's described as a pure "narrative trade," as the company is not profitable and a technological breakthrough is not expected until 2029 or later.
• Space Tech:
  • The hosts believe Space Tech could become the "AI levered bet" for 2026, taking over the role that stocks like Rigetti played in 2025.
  • They are seeing the "first signs" of this narrative taking hold.

Takeaways

• High-risk, narrative-driven stocks like RGTI can produce outsized returns but are extremely speculative and detached from current fundamentals. These should be treated as high-risk, tactical positions.
• Investors looking for the "next big thing" should start researching the Space Tech sector, as it may be the next theme to capture market attention and momentum in 2026.