Treasury Just Flipped the Setup for BTC & Gold w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki | Trading the Markets Aug. 19, 2026
Treasury Just Flipped the Setup for BTC & Gold w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki | Trading the Markets Aug. 19, 2026
Podcast50 min 56 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

With the US Treasury's expanded bond buybacks starting September 9 lowering bond yields, Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU) are major macro beneficiaries, with BTC poised for a trend reversal if it closes the week above its 20-week moving average.

Ethereum (ETH) is leading the immediate crypto rebound alongside clarifying regulatory tailwinds and remains an attractive trade as long as it holds above its 20-week moving average through Sunday's close.

Monero (XMR) presents a steady, high-conviction trend-following opportunity after confirming a bullish crossover above its 200-day moving average cloud.

For utility-focused decentralized finance exposure, Chainlink (LINK) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) offer high-probability entry points after successfully bouncing back above their 200-day moving averages.

Despite generating market-leading protocol revenue, prospective buyers of Pump.fun (PUMP) should wait for a shallow price pullback before entering, as technical indicators show the token is temporarily overextended.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Macro conditions flipped heavily in favor of Bitcoin following the US Treasury's announcement to double buybacks on 10-year and 30-year bonds starting September 9.
    • The drop in long-term bond yields weakened the US Dollar, driving liquidity out of cash and pushing money further out on the risk curve.
    • The sudden macro shift triggered crypto's largest short squeeze since 2023, propelling BTC up over 6%.
  • Price action has pushed back into the daily moving average cloud and is testing the 20-week moving average.
    • A confirmed close above the 20-week moving average and the weekly high would confirm a macro weekly trend reversal.
  • Early institutional and retail interest is returning, evidenced by positive weekly ETF inflows and the Coinbase Premium Index briefly turning green for the first time since June 11.

Takeaways

  • Watch for BTC to close the week above its 20-week moving average to confirm that the counter-trend rally has transitioned into a durable weekly uptrend.
  • Monitor upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and ETF net inflows to ensure institutional demand remains sustained.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum has shown superior short-term relative strength compared to Bitcoin, surging approximately 8.5% to 10%.
  • ETH successfully broke into its 200-day moving average cloud and has already pushed above its 20-week moving average, confirming a bottom signal on the weekly chart.
  • Recent regulatory developments from the CFTC and SEC offering clearer token classifications and staking/DeFi guidance provide strong fundamental tailwinds.

Takeaways

  • ETH is leading the immediate market rebound; holding above its 20-week moving average through the Sunday weekly close will confirm a robust trend reversal.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • Pump has climbed to become the number 3 protocol across the entire digital asset space in 30-day revenue, trailing only Tether and Circle.
    • Its revenue generation has surpassed high-profile platforms including Hyperliquid and Tron, with value actively accruing back to token holders.
  • The token is displaying parabolic momentum with consecutive weekly gains of 19%, 28%, and 36%.
  • A new launchpad collaboration with prominent crypto figure Ansem is driving additional volume and creating a community attention flywheel.

Takeaways

  • While PUMP is fundamentally strong due to high protocol revenues, its technical setup is currently overextended above the weekly Bollinger Bands (DMARC 6), meaning prospective buyers should prepare for or wait on a shallow consolidation before entering.

Monero (XMR)

  • Monero is exhibiting one of the cleanest, steadiest technical uptrends in the altcoin market without showing signs of extreme overextension.
  • The asset has confirmed a bullish crossover on its 200-day moving average cloud and has flipped its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages to the upside.
  • Three consecutive weekly green signals point to sustained, healthy accumulation rather than a speculative blow-off top.

Takeaways

  • XMR offers a high-probability technical breakout setup for trend followers looking for steady momentum backed by multi-timeframe moving average support.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Hyperliquid staged a sharp V-shaped recovery, bouncing cleanly off its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) after a period of price bleeding.
  • Technical indicators have reconfirmed its broader bull trend, printing new green momentum signals heading back toward its megatrend line.
  • The protocol remains one of the premier decentralized finance revenue generators in crypto.

Takeaways

  • HYPE has resolved its recent pullback and re-established its upward trend, remaining a high-conviction fundamental asset in decentralized derivatives.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • ZEC gained roughly 8% to 10% on the day and is coiling within a tight volatility squeeze pattern.
  • The asset has fully absorbed its prior security/hack scare and is printing bullish momentum indicators on the weekly timeframe.

Takeaways

  • The prolonged consolidation and volatility squeeze indicate that ZEC is primed for an imminent, larger directional breakout to the upside.

Chainlink (LINK)

  • Chainlink is breaking out from an extended bottoming pattern, posting multiple green momentum dots and closing above its megatrend indicator.
  • Price has moved back above the 200-day moving average, supported by durable oracle usage and broader interest in crypto infrastructure.

Takeaways

  • LINK is flashing early-stage trend reversal signals, making it an appealing setup for investors seeking utility-focused assets emerging from bear-market bottoms.

Morpho (MORPHO)

  • Morpho has strongly outperformed the broader crypto market, holding above its previous peak levels while many altcoins experienced 50% to 80% drawdowns.
  • The project is generating consistent DeFi lending revenues and continues to fly under the radar relative to its fundamental performance.

Takeaways

  • MORPHO represents a resilient DeFi blue-chip candidate that has already demonstrated relative strength against market-wide downturns.

Solana (SOL)

  • Solana is showing signs of recovery after clearing previous red negative momentum signals and retesting resistance levels established in June.
  • While its broader trend has turned positive, its immediate daily momentum is slightly lagging behind ETH and BTC.

Takeaways

  • SOL is in a constructive basing phase, but investors should look for a decisive breakout above previous summer resistance levels before expecting accelerated upside.

Gold (XAU)

  • Gold is a primary macro beneficiary of the Treasury's bond buyback program and falling real interest rates.
  • Lower yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries combined with a falling US Dollar are mechanically driving capital out of defensive cash accounts and into non-yielding hard stores of value.

Takeaways

  • Macro tailwinds remain firmly bullish for Gold as systemic liquidity conditions ease and real bond yields decline.

Robinhood Ecosystem (HOOD)

  • The newly launched Robinhood Layer 1 blockchain has quickly reached #13 in global blockchain rankings by active protocols (187 active protocols) and revenue.
  • The platform benefits from a massive addressable market by converting traditional finance retail users directly on-chain, accompanied by high activity in native meme tokens and NFTs.

Takeaways

  • The native token ecosystem on the Robinhood chain is currently an early-stage, speculative environment; investors should watch for the emergence of established decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on the network as indicators of mature investment opportunities.
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Episode Description
Bijan Maleki and Kris Bullock are back to break down a potentially important shift in the macro setup for crypto. With the U.S. Treasury stepping up long-dated bond buybacks, long-end yields are falling and the dollar is weakening - conditions that could become increasingly supportive for bitcoin, gold, and other risk assets. Kris also digs into PUMP, which has recently overtaken Hyperliquid in 30-day protocol revenue, and explains why he’s considering adding it to the Real Vision model portfolio. They compare the setup with HYPE, run through the usual crypto charts, and look for the strongest opportunities across the market. 👉 Have a question for Kris? Join the live show every Monday at 1pm ET in the RV Discord. Register here: https://discord.gg/FTQsrUhD9Z. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Why Crypto Is Surging: Treasury Buybacks & Falling Yields 02:04 - Treasury Buybacks, the Dollar & Bullish Financial Conditions 03:00 - SEC & CFTC Crypto Policy: What Happens Without the CLARITY Act? 04:02 - Crypto’s Biggest Short Squeeze in Years 07:39 - ETF Flows & U.S. Crypto Demand Show Signs of Life 10:54 - Bitcoin Rally: Is a Trend Reversal Starting? 13:59 - Ethereum, Solana & Sui: Which Crypto Is Leading? 17:41 - Hyperliquid Rebounds as HYPE Flips Bullish 18:35 - PUMP Beats Hyperliquid on Crypto Revenue 22:10 - Ansem’s Solana Launchpad & the Meme Coin Economy 26:20 - Venice & Morpho: Crypto’s Relative Strength Leaders 29:40 - PUMP, Morpho or Bitcoin? Kris Eyes His Next Trade 32:41 - Robinhood Chain: The New Crypto Ecosystem to Watch 42:28 - Zcash & Monero Break Out as Privacy Coins Rally 46:51 - Ondo, Aerodrome & the DeFi Tokens to Watch Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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