Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026
Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026
Podcast31 min 55 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Favor security software for June: the speakers cited heavy short positioning and potential short-covering momentum, though no specific stocks were named and the trade could reverse.
  • Consider Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) for AI-driven server and computer demand; treat DELL cautiously given its unusually momentum-heavy rise.
  • Unusual Machines (UMAC) could benefit from a June catalyst if reported military-drone funding arrangements are confirmed, but the catalyst is unverified and easing conflicts pose a risk.
  • ServiceNow (NOW) was flagged as a possible June short-squeeze trade, not a fundamental endorsement; crowded AI-driven recommendations could amplify moves in either direction.
  • Monitor Bitcoin (BTC) rather than buying solely on a rebound thesis: speakers saw potential for a sharp rally if momentum returns but cited no clear catalyst or price target.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was described as lagging other risk assets during the rally, despite improving software shares and ample liquidity.
  • The speaker said a return of momentum could make a rebound “very violent,” but he had not added to his crypto holdings and was underallocated relative to his usual position.
  • The discussion identified the lack of a clear catalyst for renewed price momentum as a concern.

Takeaways

  • The speakers see potential for a sharp move if momentum returns, but they did not identify a specific catalyst or price target. Their comments support monitoring price action rather than treating a rebound as assured.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • One speaker said he sold some ETH the previous week to pay taxes, explaining that he has a short attention span and finds it difficult to wait while other investments are rising.
  • The sale was presented as a personal portfolio decision, not as a specific bearish call on Ethereum.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offered no specific ETH outlook, target, or recommendation. The sale mainly illustrates the opportunity-cost pressure crypto investors may feel when other assets are rallying.

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Fartcoin

  • The speakers said that when returns and investor greed are high, meme coins such as Dogecoin and Fartcoin might typically be in the conversation—but they were not seeing that enthusiasm at the time.
  • This was used as an indication that crypto sentiment and momentum had cooled.

Takeaways

  • The transcript does not offer a trade recommendation for either coin. Their absence from the market’s current focus was presented as a sentiment observation, not a signal to buy or sell.

Security Software

  • The speakers were positive on security software for June, citing a short squeeze in software shares and market positioning that they described as very short.
  • One speaker said they had doubled down on security names during the software sell-off and remained heavily allocated. No specific security companies or tickers were named.

Takeaways

  • Security software was one of the speakers’ preferred near-term themes. The opportunity they described depends partly on continued momentum and short covering, which can reverse; the transcript did not name specific stocks.

AI Infrastructure and Computer/Server Makers

  • The speakers highlighted Dell Technologies (DELL) after strong results, particularly in AI services, and said they were beginning to see spillovers into consumer products.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) was mentioned in connection with a partnership with NVIDIA (NVDA) on a new production line.
  • They described computer and server makers as a compelling trade and said they believed the theme was still in its early stages. Dell’s sharp rise was also characterized as unusually momentum-driven.

Takeaways

  • The speakers’ thesis is that AI investment is supporting hardware demand, with potential benefits for server and computer makers.
  • A key consideration is that the move may be momentum-heavy: the transcript describes Dell as trading like a “meme coin,” underscoring the possibility of sharp price swings.

Robotics and Autonomous Vehicles

  • The discussion emphasized that robots need extensive real-world recordings to learn practical tasks such as cleaning, plumbing, or cooking. A company called Shift was shown offering cleaning services while collecting footage to train future robots; no stock ticker or investable status was given.
  • The speakers said broadly capable humanoid robots may still be years away, with one estimating five to seven years for the trend to develop.
  • Because they saw less near-term evidence for humanoid robots, they said they had tilted their robotics portfolio toward autonomous miles, where companies such as Tesla (TSLA) and Waymo have already accumulated driving data. Waymo is not a publicly traded company.

Takeaways

  • The speakers expressed long-term confidence in robotics but cautioned that the investment payoff may take longer than the current market cycle.
  • Their stated portfolio adjustment favored autonomous-vehicle data and experience over near-term expectations for humanoid robots. The transcript did not identify specific positions in Tesla or Alphabet.

Military Drones and Unusual Machines (UMAC)

  • The speakers were positive on military-drone stocks, citing a potential Wall Street Journal-reported arrangement in which drone companies could receive funding in exchange for equity stakes.
  • They said confirmation of such packages could provide a catalyst, drawing a comparison with a prior surge in quantum-related stocks after funding packages were confirmed.
  • Unusual Machines (UMAC) was singled out as having risen sharply; one speaker also noted the involvement of Don Jr. in the company.
  • A risk noted in the discussion is that military drones are tied to conflict: if one or more wars end, that could be negative for the sector. The speakers nevertheless expressed a favorable longer-term view.

Takeaways

  • The speakers saw potential for a June momentum trade if funding arrangements are confirmed, but the anticipated catalyst was not yet confirmed in the discussion.
  • They also viewed drones as a longer-term theme, while explicitly flagging the risk that easing conflicts could weaken demand or sentiment.

ServiceNow (NOW)

  • One speaker said ServiceNow had risen sharply and described an ongoing short squeeze.
  • He noted that the AI assistant Claude had reportedly been recommending the stock, even though he viewed ServiceNow as vulnerable to cannibalization from Claude’s launch. He called the situation “peak meta” and floated it as a possible June momentum play.
  • The discussion also warned that AI-generated recommendations could lead investors to crowd into the same trades, creating unusually large moves and potential opportunities to fade them.

Takeaways

  • ServiceNow was discussed as a momentum and short-squeeze trade, not as a straightforward fundamental endorsement.
  • The speakers highlighted crowding risk: synchronized recommendations may push prices sharply in either direction. No price target was given.

Quantum-Related Companies

  • The speakers referred to a recent surge in quantum-related companies after funding packages were confirmed, using it as an example of how official confirmation can trigger a sharp move.
  • No company names, tickers, or specific quantum investment recommendations were provided.

Takeaways

  • The relevant takeaway was about catalyst-driven momentum: confirmation of funding can move shares quickly. The transcript does not provide enough detail to identify a specific investment.

Oil and Strait of Hormuz Exposure

  • Oil prices rose after reports that U.S.–Iran communications had broken down and tensions had increased. The speakers characterized the ceasefire and peace process as fragile.
  • One speaker estimated that reserves could provide roughly six to seven weeks of cushion, but said a deal or prolonged ceasefire involving at least a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be needed during June or early the following quarter to sustain the economic upswing.
  • A further risk discussed was disruption to Red Sea shipping, including possible Houthi attacks on vessels. The speakers said such attacks could produce “nasty days” in markets.
  • Despite the geopolitical tension, they described the immediate equity-market response as relatively calm and said the conflict had so far been less damaging to the global economy than many had feared.

Takeaways

  • The speakers identified the Strait of Hormuz, oil flows, and the Red Sea as key variables to watch for inflation and market risk.
  • Their economic outlook depends in part on a timely resolution or partial reopening. The transcript gives no oil price target.

U.S. Macro, Inflation, and Liquidity

  • The speakers said U.S. inflation momentum had been roughly flat since the first week of May, a surprise given the unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation.
  • The latest ISM data were described as strong, especially for manufacturing and new orders. The speakers expected manufacturing to benefit from AI-related hardware and data-center investment, while services were not accelerating as much.
  • They said liquidity could improve over the next four to six weeks because the U.S. Treasury was underestimating issuance needs and might draw down its Treasury General Account. They linked abundant dollar liquidity and cheaper leverage to increased market leverage and a possible continuation of the rally.
  • They also said tariff revenue was much weaker than hoped after two legal rulings against tariff policies, creating a budget shortfall and possible tariff repayments.

Takeaways

  • The speakers’ near-term macro view was constructive: strong manufacturing data, flatlining inflation momentum, and expected liquidity support were seen as favorable for risk assets.
  • The outlook remains dependent on continued liquidity and the geopolitical situation. The transcript also highlights that leverage can amplify market moves and that tariff-related budget uncertainty may affect Treasury funding.

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Episode Description
Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon — and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors. 🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future Timestamps: 00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone? 02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France 04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking? 05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup 07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones 08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall? 09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI 11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point 14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx? 15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case 18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War? 20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade 21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 Rebound #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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