Bitcoin Soars, Japanese Bonds Buckle | Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays: October 6, 2025
Bitcoin Soars, Japanese Bonds Buckle | Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays: October 6, 2025
Podcast34 min 26 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider investing in Japanese equities, as a potential new Prime Minister is expected to usher in an era of significant government spending that could boost asset prices. Gain exposure to copper, a key commodity benefiting from China's massive electrical grid expansion for EVs and AI data centers. The explosive growth of AI is creating a secondary boom in the energy sector, with electricity becoming the primary bottleneck and investment opportunity. Look for investments in companies supporting this energy demand, particularly in solar power and the nuclear power supply chain. Finally, the long-term automation and robotics cycle presents a powerful theme as companies invest heavily to counter a shrinking labor force.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The podcast discussed the current crypto cycle, noting that while some on-chain analysts predict an imminent cycle top based on previous cycle lengths (e.g., October 6, 2025), the host believes each cycle is different and driven by the current macro landscape, which is not yet showing signs of peaking.
  • There is a significant potential long-term tailwind from government adoption. Currently, governments are estimated to own less than 2.5% of all Bitcoin. The hosts compare this to central banks in the "global south" buying gold, suggesting a similar trend could eventually happen with Bitcoin, though it is still "very, very early days" for Western governments to participate in this cycle.
  • A psychological shift among retail investors was highlighted. Many new investors feel that even a large price increase (e.g., to $200k) won't make them rich from a small investment (e.g., $1,000). This sentiment is important for the broader crypto market.

Takeaways

  • Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a long-term store of value for preserving purchasing power, similar to gold, rather than a "get rich quick" asset. The days of easy, massive overnight gains may be over.
  • Investors looking for exponential returns might start looking towards smaller, more speculative altcoins. If this sentiment spreads, it could trigger a stronger "altcoin season" as capital seeks higher risk and reward.
  • The macro environment (e.g., manufacturing cycles, inflation) is a more reliable indicator of the market cycle than simply comparing it to previous Bitcoin cycles. The current macro picture suggests the cycle is not over yet.

Investment Theme: Automation, Robotics & CAPEX

  • A major investment theme discussed is the capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle driven by automation and robotics.
  • The hosts argue that a shrinking labor force in the U.S., caused by changes in migration policy, is forcing companies to invest heavily in automation to maintain productivity.
  • This trend is considered to be "just getting started" and is broader than just the current AI-related data center buildout.

Takeaways

  • The need for automation is a powerful, long-term trend driven by fundamental demographic and policy shifts in the U.S.
  • Investors should look for opportunities in companies related to automation, robotics, and the broader CAPEX cycle, as this theme is expected to have significant longevity.

Investment Theme: Japanese Equities

  • The likely appointment of a new Prime Minister in Japan, Takahichi, is seen as a major bullish catalyst. She is described as a "big spender" who will likely pursue a policy of fiscal dominance (using government spending to drive the economy).
  • This aligns with a global trend of governments using fiscal policy more actively, which tends to be inflationary and supportive of asset prices.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been stepping back from market interventions, which has allowed the private banking system to begin creating credit again. This is seen as a healthier, more sustainable driver of economic activity than central bank money printing.
  • The Nikkei index was up 5% on the morning of the podcast, indicating strong market enthusiasm for these developments.

Takeaways

  • Japan represents a significant investment opportunity due to a major shift in government policy and a revitalized private credit cycle.
  • The hosts compare the current uniform global growth environment, including Japan, to the 2005-2007 period, which was very positive for global equities. This suggests a favorable environment for investing in Japanese stocks.

Investment Theme: Copper

  • Copper was highlighted as a key position in the hosts' model portfolio.
  • The investment thesis is driven by a massive industrial shift in China, moving away from traditional construction and towards building out its electrical grid.
  • This shift is primarily fueled by two major trends: the explosion in Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the buildout of solar power infrastructure to meet the energy demands of AI.
  • In the U.S., the inflationary impact of tariffs on copper is expected to be slow and drawn out into 2026 because companies built up large inventories ahead of time. This prevents a sudden price shock and creates a more stable demand environment.

Takeaways

  • Copper is a key "picks and shovels" play on the EV and AI/clean energy super-trends.
  • The strong, structural demand from China's grid expansion provides a powerful tailwind for the commodity. Investors can gain exposure through copper miners, ETFs, or futures.

Investment Theme: AI-Driven Energy Demand

  • The hosts identified the energy required to power AI as one of the "most fundamental super trends" right now.
  • The primary bottleneck for the AI boom is no longer GPUs, but electricity. Global electricity demand is accelerating at an "incredible" rate.
  • As an example of this demand, some U.S. states already see data centers consuming up to 40% of their total daily electricity.
  • This massive energy need is driving investment in solar power and is also causing a strategic shift towards nuclear power.

Takeaways

  • The AI revolution is creating a secondary boom in the energy sector. The most significant bottleneck, and therefore investment opportunity, is in electricity generation and infrastructure.
  • Investors should consider opportunities in sectors that will benefit from this demand, such as solar energy companies and potentially nuclear power companies and related supply chains.
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Episode Description
🔥 *Join the waitlist: https://rvtv.io/3IQ5Bs6* Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the latest news and trends driving markets, from inflation and labor data to Bitcoin’s rally and the Japanese bond market action. 📣 This episode is brought to you by Bitwise Asset Management*. Bitwise has been all-in on crypto since 2017 and has more than 20 crypto-based products to help investors get the necessary access. Bitwise manages the world’s largest crypto index fund, one of the top Bitcoin ETFs, and one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking solutions. Bitwise has over $10 billion in assets under management and over 100 people in the US and Europe to help manage everything from ETFs to private alpha strategies to SMAs for large investors. 👉 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them*. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing 📣 Binance is a leading global blockchain ecosystem behind the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume and registered users. Binance is trusted by more than 280 million people in 100+ countries for its industry-leading security, transparency, trading engine speed, protections for investors, and unmatched portfolio of digital asset products and offerings from trading and finance to education, research, social good, payments, institutional services, and Web3 features. Binance is devoted to building an inclusive crypto ecosystem to increase the freedom of money and financial access for people around the world with crypto as the fundamental means. 👉 Learn more at https://realvision.com/binance 📣 Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. 👉 Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Music license ID: WJ6TRPVHFD About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com/join Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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