The US Treasury is drawing down its general account, creating a massive liquidity injection that supports a continued rally in risk assets through the end of June. Investors should prioritize the "hardware trade" by targeting AI server manufacturers like Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP Enterprise (HPE), which are benefiting from a massive manufacturing upswing. High-conviction opportunities exist in the cybersecurity sector and ServiceNow (NOW) as a violent short squeeze in software continues to unfold. Watch for a potential catalyst in military drone stocks like Unusual Machines (UMAC), which may benefit from upcoming government funding reports. While Bitcoin (BTC) is currently lagging, the abundance of cheap dollar liquidity makes it an opportune time to use leverage in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

Based on the Macro Mondays episode from June 1, 2026, here are the investment insights and market analysis extracted from the discussion between Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno.

US Economy & Macro Outlook

The hosts discussed a surprisingly resilient US economy, driven by strong manufacturing data despite geopolitical tensions.

• ISM Manufacturing Numbers: Reported as "surprisingly strong." The manufacturing sector is accelerating faster than it did pre-war, while the services sector is flatlining.
• AI Build-out Impact: The manufacturing strength is attributed to the "hardware trade" and massive Capex (capital expenditure) required for AI data centers.
• Liquidity Injection: A "nasty hole" in the US budget due to illegal tariff rulings is forcing the Treasury to draw down the Treasury General Account (TGA). This is expected to push liquidity into private banks, potentially fueling a continued rally in risk assets through June.

Takeaways

• Bullish Sentiment: The "now-casting" data suggests the US economy is in a global upswing that many media outlets are missing.
• Leverage Opportunity: The spread between SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and effective Fed funds rates indicates an abundance of dollars, making it cheaper for investors to lever up trades in Treasuries and mortgages.

Software & Cybersecurity

The hosts identified a "SaaS apocalypse" recovery, noting that the market was caught heavily short in this sector.

• Short Squeeze: A violent short squeeze is currently ongoing in the software space.
• ServiceNow (NOW): Mentioned as a specific "fun play" for June. Interestingly, the AI Claude has been recommending this stock despite the potential for AI to cannibalize ServiceNow's business model.
• Cybersecurity: Steno is "heavily allocated" to security software, viewing it as a high-conviction case for the month of June.

Takeaways

• Actionable Trade: Look for momentum in the cybersecurity sub-sector.
• Monitor AI Recommendations: The hosts noted that AI-driven retail investment (people following Claude/Gemini tips) is creating "three to four standard deviation" moves, providing opportunities for both momentum traders and those looking to fade overextended rallies.

Computer Hardware & Servers

The "bottleneck trade" in AI infrastructure remains a primary focus for the analysts.

• Dell Technologies (DELL): Described as trading like a "meme coin" due to massive demand for AI servers.
• HP Enterprise (HPE): Highlighted due to a new production line partnership with NVIDIA (NVDA).

Takeaways

• Growth Potential: The hosts believe the trade in computer server makers has "hardly even started" despite recent gains.
• Hardware over Software: Manufacturing-heavy AI plays are currently preferred over pure-play AI services.

Military Drones & Robotics

While these sectors have underperformed in early 2026, the hosts see a turning point in June.

• Military Drones: Anticipation of a Wall Street Journal report regarding US government funding/equity stakes in drone companies could act as a major catalyst.
• Unusual Machines (UMAC): Specifically mentioned as an interesting (though speculative) play due to political connections (Don Jr. on the board).
• Industrial Robotics: Currently struggling, but the long-term thesis remains intact.
• Autonomous Miles: The portfolio is tilting toward companies with high "recordings" (data), such as Tesla (TSLA) or Waymo, as data is the prerequisite for functional AI robotics.

Takeaways

• Risk Factor: A potential ceasefire between the US and Iran could be a short-term negative for military drone stocks, though the long-term outlook remains bullish.
• Event-Driven Trade: Watch for official confirmation of government funding packages for drone companies in June.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Crypto

The hosts expressed confusion regarding Bitcoin’s recent lack of participation in the broader risk-on rally.

• Lagging Performance: Bitcoin is described as the "only risk asset not participating" in the current liquidity-driven surge.
• Sentiment: Steno admitted to being under-allocated in crypto compared to previous cycles, citing better returns in AI and software.

Takeaways

• Wait-and-See: While a "violent" move upward is possible if momentum returns, the analysts are currently prioritizing AI and manufacturing trades over BTC and Ethereum (ETH).

Geopolitical Risk: Iran & Oil

The breakdown of negotiations between the US and Iran remains the primary "black swan" risk.

• Strait of Hormuz: A resolution is needed by late June or early July to keep the global economic upswing intact.
• Oil Prices: While oil spiked on news of broken negotiations, the broader equity market remains "benign" and calm.
• Timeline: Global reserves of oil and jet fuel are estimated to last another 6–7 weeks. If no deal is reached by then, market volatility will likely increase significantly.