Raoul Pal The Journey Man

Adjust your investment timeline, as the peak of this bull market is now expected in late 2026 due to a delayed liquidity cycle. The primary strategy is to own assets that outperform currency debasement, with crypto being the highest conviction long-term holding. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently undervalued relative to macro indicators, presenting a buying opportunity before a massive wave of liquidity arrives in the next 6-9 months. Prepare for a potential "alt season" to begin in that same 6-9 month timeframe, as a strengthening economy is expected to fuel outperformance in assets like Ethereum (ETH). Consider overweighting crypto relative to assets like the Nasdaq, as its current underperformance is viewed as a temporary buying opportunity.

The traditional four-year market cycle has likely extended, with the peak for risk assets now projected for late 2026. This updated timeline suggests the major wave of market liquidity that drives prices higher is still ahead of us. Investors should consider extending their investment horizon to capture the remainder of this potential bull market. The explosive growth phase may be delayed, but this analysis suggests it is still expected to occur. Re-evaluate any plans to sell in 2025 and consider holding positions into 2026 to align with this new cycle peak.

A new 5.4-year debt cycle, not the Bitcoin halving, is now the primary driver for markets. An estimated $8 trillion in new liquidity is expected over the next 12 months, which should significantly boost asset prices. This environment is highly bullish for risk assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks. The current bull market is now projected to peak at the end of 2026, which is later than many anticipate. Investors should consider holding these risk assets for this extended timeframe to capture the full potential upside.