
Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) on dips when it hits oversold levels, as it remains the primary beneficiary of increasing global liquidity and is currently supported by its 120-day EMA.
For high-conviction crypto breakouts, watch for Ethereum (ETH) to close above $2,400 and Coinbase (COIN) to break $214 to signal the next major legs higher.
Maintain core long-term positions in NVIDIA (NVDA) and Solana (SOL), as both are essential infrastructure plays for the "Exponential Age" and the rapidly scaling AI compute cycle.
Monitor Tesla (TSLA) for a breakout from its long-term weekly wedge pattern, which could trigger a massive trend reversal as the market revalues it as a robotics and AI agent leader.
Consider Rocket Lab (RKLB) as the dominant public play for the space economy, but be prepared to take profits on vertical moves before a potential SpaceX IPO shifts market demand.
• Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel maintain a highly bullish outlook, viewing current price action as a bull flag consolidation. • The asset is currently holding well above its 120-day exponential moving average (EMA), which acted as resistance in previous months but is now serving as support. • The long-term thesis remains intact: the network is transitioning from a $2.5 trillion asset class toward a $100 trillion valuation as the global financial system migrates to crypto rails.
• Avoid Over-trading: The analysts suggest that unless you need the cash, selling is counterproductive given the "exponential" trajectory. • Buy the Dips: View periods where the asset is "oversold" (specifically looking at two standard deviation moves) as opportunities to add to core positions. • Liquidity Correlation: Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. Liquidity (Total Loans and Leases + Fed Balance Sheet). As liquidity flows return to the system, Bitcoin is expected to outperform traditional tech stocks.
• Ethereum is showing a similar setup to Bitcoin but is described as "not yet free." • It is currently facing compression near its exponential moving average. • A key breakout level to watch is $2,400; clearing this level is seen as the trigger for the next major leg up.
• Patience Required: ETH is lagging BTC slightly in this phase of the cycle, but the "inverse head and shoulders" pattern suggests a potential catch-up trade. • Monitor the $2,400 Level: A sustained close above this price point would signal a shift from consolidation to acceleration.
• Mentioned as a major winner in the "Pro" portfolio, currently up over 200% since being added. • The sentiment remains extremely bullish as it is viewed as a primary beneficiary of the "Exponential Age" and the shift toward high-speed compute.
• Core Holding: Solana is treated as a "top-tier" asset within the crypto space, similar to BTC and ETH, due to its speed and adoption.
• The analysts believe the "Compute Cycle" has only just begun. • Demand for chips is driven by Jevons Paradox: as compute becomes cheaper and more efficient, the demand for it increases exponentially rather than decreasing. • Jensen Huang’s (NVIDIA CEO) presence in China suggests a "Grand Bargain" where NVIDIA may continue selling chips to China under specific terms to avoid geopolitical conflict.
• Long-term Horizon: The demand for the semiconductor cycle is expected to last until at least 2030. • Ignore "Overvalued" Calls: Traditional valuation metrics may fail because earnings are scaling at a rate never seen in industrial history.
• Highlighted as the fastest-scaling company in human history. • It has reportedly gone from near-zero to $100 billion in revenues in roughly three years (scaling from $10B to $100B in the last year alone).
• Benchmark for AI Growth: Anthropic’s growth serves as a "canary in the coal mine" for the sheer speed of the AI revolution. • Compute Hunger: Their massive need for compute (negotiating with Elon Musk and NVIDIA) reinforces the bullish case for the semiconductor sector.
• The stock is currently in a large "wedge" pattern on the weekly chart. • Raoul Pal believes that when this wedge breaks to the upside, the market is "not prepared" for the magnitude of the move.
• The "Robot" Play: Tesla is viewed not just as a car company, but as a leader in the transition to an economy of "agents and robots." • Watch the Breakout: A break above the long-term downtrend line would signal a major trend reversal.
• Described as a "rocket ship" stock that has gone vertical recently. • It is viewed as the primary way for public investors to play the "SpaceX" theme before SpaceX potentially goes public.
• Speculative Momentum: While the stock is "overvalued" relative to current revenues and is still losing money, it is the dominant "Space" play. • Profit Taking: The analysts suggest taking profits if the stock continues to go vertical, as the eventual SpaceX IPO might "satiate" the demand for space stocks.
• The analysts are heavily bullish on the growth of stablecoins, noting that the market is underestimating how fast they will grow to finance government deficits. • The chart (likely referring to a proxy or private valuation tracker) shows a "huge inverse head and shoulders" pattern.
• Infrastructure Play: Stablecoins are viewed as the "rails" for the new financial system. • Clarity Act: Anticipated U.S. legislation (Clarity Act) is expected to provide the regulatory green light for massive stablecoin expansion.
• Currently consolidating in what looks like a bullish falling wedge. Expected to move higher after this period of consolidation.
• Bullish on the "personalized medicine" and "peptides" (GLP-1) market. View the recent dip as a base-building exercise before an "exploding" move higher.
• Forming an ascending triangle. A close above $214 is the key level to watch for a major breakout.
• Bearish/Cautious Sentiment: Despite the "green energy" thesis, the analysts are nervous because the trade is "too consensus" (everyone is long). There is a risk that China may sell its copper inventories to acquire U.S. dollars.
• Energy to Intelligence: The global economy is shifting from being dependent on "Capital and Labor" to being dependent on "Compute and Energy." • The Super Cycle: There is an increasing probability of a "Super Cycle" where the typical 4-year business cycle disappears, replaced by a permanent "up-cycle" driven by massive AI capital expenditure. • The Grand Bargain: A geopolitical shift is expected where the U.S. and China agree on trade and technology access to avoid war over Taiwan, which would otherwise destroy the AI chip supply chain.

By @raoulpaltjm
Join me on my journey through macro, crypto and the Exponential Age of technology. The world is changing faster than ever ...