Why the Global Economy Is Changing Rapidly | with Julien Bittel (Raoul Pal The Journey Man)
Why the Global Economy Is Changing Rapidly | with Julien Bittel (Raoul Pal The Journey Man)
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) on dips when it hits oversold levels, as it remains the primary beneficiary of increasing global liquidity and is currently supported by its 120-day EMA.

For high-conviction crypto breakouts, watch for Ethereum (ETH) to close above $2,400 and Coinbase (COIN) to break $214 to signal the next major legs higher.

Maintain core long-term positions in NVIDIA (NVDA) and Solana (SOL), as both are essential infrastructure plays for the "Exponential Age" and the rapidly scaling AI compute cycle.

Monitor Tesla (TSLA) for a breakout from its long-term weekly wedge pattern, which could trigger a massive trend reversal as the market revalues it as a robotics and AI agent leader.

Consider Rocket Lab (RKLB) as the dominant public play for the space economy, but be prepared to take profits on vertical moves before a potential SpaceX IPO shifts market demand.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel maintain a highly bullish outlook, viewing current price action as a bull flag consolidation. • The asset is currently holding well above its 120-day exponential moving average (EMA), which acted as resistance in previous months but is now serving as support. • The long-term thesis remains intact: the network is transitioning from a $2.5 trillion asset class toward a $100 trillion valuation as the global financial system migrates to crypto rails.

Takeaways

Avoid Over-trading: The analysts suggest that unless you need the cash, selling is counterproductive given the "exponential" trajectory. • Buy the Dips: View periods where the asset is "oversold" (specifically looking at two standard deviation moves) as opportunities to add to core positions. • Liquidity Correlation: Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. Liquidity (Total Loans and Leases + Fed Balance Sheet). As liquidity flows return to the system, Bitcoin is expected to outperform traditional tech stocks.


Ethereum (ETH)

• Ethereum is showing a similar setup to Bitcoin but is described as "not yet free." • It is currently facing compression near its exponential moving average. • A key breakout level to watch is $2,400; clearing this level is seen as the trigger for the next major leg up.

Takeaways

Patience Required: ETH is lagging BTC slightly in this phase of the cycle, but the "inverse head and shoulders" pattern suggests a potential catch-up trade. • Monitor the $2,400 Level: A sustained close above this price point would signal a shift from consolidation to acceleration.


Solana (SOL)

• Mentioned as a major winner in the "Pro" portfolio, currently up over 200% since being added. • The sentiment remains extremely bullish as it is viewed as a primary beneficiary of the "Exponential Age" and the shift toward high-speed compute.

Takeaways

Core Holding: Solana is treated as a "top-tier" asset within the crypto space, similar to BTC and ETH, due to its speed and adoption.


NVIDIA (NVDA)

• The analysts believe the "Compute Cycle" has only just begun. • Demand for chips is driven by Jevons Paradox: as compute becomes cheaper and more efficient, the demand for it increases exponentially rather than decreasing. • Jensen Huang’s (NVIDIA CEO) presence in China suggests a "Grand Bargain" where NVIDIA may continue selling chips to China under specific terms to avoid geopolitical conflict.

Takeaways

Long-term Horizon: The demand for the semiconductor cycle is expected to last until at least 2030. • Ignore "Overvalued" Calls: Traditional valuation metrics may fail because earnings are scaling at a rate never seen in industrial history.


Anthropic (Private AI Company)

• Highlighted as the fastest-scaling company in human history. • It has reportedly gone from near-zero to $100 billion in revenues in roughly three years (scaling from $10B to $100B in the last year alone).

Takeaways

Benchmark for AI Growth: Anthropic’s growth serves as a "canary in the coal mine" for the sheer speed of the AI revolution. • Compute Hunger: Their massive need for compute (negotiating with Elon Musk and NVIDIA) reinforces the bullish case for the semiconductor sector.


Tesla (TSLA)

• The stock is currently in a large "wedge" pattern on the weekly chart. • Raoul Pal believes that when this wedge breaks to the upside, the market is "not prepared" for the magnitude of the move.

Takeaways

The "Robot" Play: Tesla is viewed not just as a car company, but as a leader in the transition to an economy of "agents and robots." • Watch the Breakout: A break above the long-term downtrend line would signal a major trend reversal.


Rocket Lab (RKLB)

• Described as a "rocket ship" stock that has gone vertical recently. • It is viewed as the primary way for public investors to play the "SpaceX" theme before SpaceX potentially goes public.

Takeaways

Speculative Momentum: While the stock is "overvalued" relative to current revenues and is still losing money, it is the dominant "Space" play. • Profit Taking: The analysts suggest taking profits if the stock continues to go vertical, as the eventual SpaceX IPO might "satiate" the demand for space stocks.


Circle (Private/Stablecoins)

• The analysts are heavily bullish on the growth of stablecoins, noting that the market is underestimating how fast they will grow to finance government deficits. • The chart (likely referring to a proxy or private valuation tracker) shows a "huge inverse head and shoulders" pattern.

Takeaways

Infrastructure Play: Stablecoins are viewed as the "rails" for the new financial system. • Clarity Act: Anticipated U.S. legislation (Clarity Act) is expected to provide the regulatory green light for massive stablecoin expansion.


Other Notable Mentions

Sui (SUI)

• Currently consolidating in what looks like a bullish falling wedge. Expected to move higher after this period of consolidation.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

• Bullish on the "personalized medicine" and "peptides" (GLP-1) market. View the recent dip as a base-building exercise before an "exploding" move higher.

Coinbase (COIN)

• Forming an ascending triangle. A close above $214 is the key level to watch for a major breakout.

Copper

Bearish/Cautious Sentiment: Despite the "green energy" thesis, the analysts are nervous because the trade is "too consensus" (everyone is long). There is a risk that China may sell its copper inventories to acquire U.S. dollars.


Investment Themes: The "Universal Code"

Energy to Intelligence: The global economy is shifting from being dependent on "Capital and Labor" to being dependent on "Compute and Energy."The Super Cycle: There is an increasing probability of a "Super Cycle" where the typical 4-year business cycle disappears, replaced by a permanent "up-cycle" driven by massive AI capital expenditure. • The Grand Bargain: A geopolitical shift is expected where the U.S. and China agree on trade and technology access to avoid war over Taiwan, which would otherwise destroy the AI chip supply chain.

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Video Description
Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel open their biweekly “Shooting the Shit” episode to all members and subscribers in this special release, which is normally exclusive to Real Vision Alpha members. The two break down the forces driving markets right now, from global liquidity and crypto regulation to AI, compute, energy, and stablecoins, and explain why the old business-cycle framework may be losing power as the exponential age accelerates. 🔥 *Download Raoul Pal's 4-year investing roadmap for free:* https://rvtv.io/41fVHWF Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction: The Exponential Age & Universal Code Thesis 1:40 - Trump, AI & Crypto: The Political Acceleration 4:07 - The US-China Grand Bargain: Trade, Taiwan & Nvidia 6:16 - Are We Mid-Cycle? The Case for a Supercycle 9:09 - Inflation, Compute Demand & Anthropic's Explosive Growth 11:37 - Crypto & Equity Chart Rundown (BTC, ETH, Circle, Tesla, Solar) 21:51 - Dollar, Rates & Copper: What to Watch 24:35 - Global Liquidity vs. Bitcoin: The Dominant Framework 30:02 - Portfolio Performance & Why You Shouldn't Trade Crypto 34:05 - The Buildout Has Only Begun: AI, Robots & the CapEx Supercycle 37:26 - Compute & Energy: The New GDP Formula 39:14 - The Economic Singularity & Why Old Macro Frameworks Are Broken 44:44 - Closing: Adapt Your Framework or Get Left Behind Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Connect with me: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ My other work: Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3LHYIaH Global Macro Investor: https://globalmacroinvestor.com The Exponentialist: https://realvision.com/thefuture EXPAAM: https://expaam.com Connect with Real Vision™: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Get a FREE membership: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf #raoulpal #crypto #macro #julienbittel #realvision #globalliquidity #ai #crypto #stablecoins #macro #macroeconomics #liquidity #exponentialage #bitcoin #markets #digitalassets #finance #artificialintelligence #futureoffinance
About Raoul Pal The Journey Man
Raoul Pal The Journey Man

Raoul Pal The Journey Man

By @raoulpaltjm

Join me on my journey through macro, crypto and the Exponential Age of technology. The world is changing faster than ever ...