A major shift in the traditional 4-year business cycle suggests the current economic expansion has been extended. This new, longer cycle is expected to provide a supportive environment for risk assets for a longer period than many anticipate. The subdued performance in crypto markets is a direct result of this extended cycle, stretching out the expected bull run. Investors should consider extending their time horizons, as the rally may be a slower grind higher rather than a quick, explosive event. This favorable environment for assets like crypto is now forecasted to persist well into late 2026.

Macroeconomic Outlook / Business Cycle

• The speakers have identified a major change in their investment framework, centered around the traditional 4-year business cycle.
• This cycle, often tracked using the ISM (Institute for Supply Management index), is no longer following its historical "perfect sine wave" pattern.
• The Cause: In 2021-2022, low interest rates allowed for a significant extension of debt maturity, moving the average from around 4 years to 5.4 years.
• The Effect: This has created a new, longer business cycle. The speakers forecast that this new cycle will likely extend "well into late 2026," which will have a significant impact on asset prices.

Takeaways

• Investors should be cautious about using historical 4-year cycle models to time the market, as the underlying economic structure has changed.
• The current economic cycle may have more room to run than many expect, potentially providing a supportive environment for risk assets until late 2026.

Cryptocurrency

• The speakers directly address why crypto markets have been "more subdued than people expect."
• This underperformance relative to historical cycle expectations is attributed to the new, longer business cycle. The typical explosive rally has been dampened and stretched out over a longer period.

Takeaways

• Adjust Timelines: Investors in cryptocurrency should consider extending their time horizon. The bull market may be more of a slow grind higher over a longer period rather than a quick, explosive event.
• Patience Over Panic: The subdued price action is explained by a macro-level cycle extension, not necessarily a fundamental weakness in the crypto space itself. This suggests that patience may be a more prudent strategy than selling based on the market's failure to meet past cycle expectations.
• Future Outlook: The analysis implies that the positive environment for assets like crypto could persist into late 2026, suggesting the cycle's peak may be further away than many anticipate.