The Metal Trade That Could Unlock AGI ft. Jordi Visser
The Metal Trade That Could Unlock AGI ft. Jordi Visser
Podcast1 hr 2 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider a long-term investment in silver (SLV), as its critical role in the physical build-out of AI is expected to create a structural shortage for over a decade. To power this AI revolution, invest in the solar energy sector through ETFs like TAN, which is poised to benefit from the massive demand for new power generation. Rebalance your portfolio towards commodity-rich international markets, with Brazil specifically named as a top investment for this year. At the same time, exercise extreme caution with traditional software stocks like Salesforce (CRM), as their business models face significant disruption from AI-driven competition. Finally, view Ethereum (ETH) as a key utility asset for the new digital economy, which may outperform Bitcoin (BTC) as the cycle progresses.

Detailed Analysis

Silver (SLV)

  • Jordi Visser describes silver not as a precious metal, but as a critical industrial metal that is the "gateway to intelligence in machines."
  • It is an essential component for the physical build-out of Artificial Intelligence, required in massive amounts for:
    • Drones (both commercial and military)
    • Humanoid robots
    • Solar panels
    • Every smart device
  • The speakers believe a shortage of silver will exist for the next 15 years due to this insatiable demand from the AI and energy transition.
  • Silver is considered price inelastic in this context. Even if the price were to increase 10x, it would still represent a very small fraction of the total cost of a data center, meaning demand is unlikely to fall even if prices rise dramatically.
  • The recent "parabolic" move in silver's price is seen not as the end of a cycle, but the beginning of a new phase where the physical connection to AI begins.

Takeaways

  • There is a strong bullish case for a long-term investment in silver.
  • The demand is not cyclical but structural, driven by the multi-decade, multi-trillion-dollar build-out of AI hardware and renewable energy infrastructure.
  • Investors could consider gaining exposure not just to the physical commodity, but also to silver mining equities, which are described as being relatively cheap and poised to benefit.

Commodities & Materials

  • The speakers argue we are in the early stages of a new commodity super cycle.
  • Unlike past cycles driven by energy, this one is driven by the demand for minerals and materials needed for the AI race. This includes copper, silver, and other rare earth metals.
  • The global build-out to "put intelligence into everything" is estimated to be an $85 trillion endeavor over the next 15 years.
  • Current investor portfolios, particularly those tracking the S&P 500, are seen as dangerously underweighted in materials and energy (around 5%) and heavily overweight in technology and software (around 50%). A major rebalancing is expected.
  • The core investment thesis is to be long assets that are scarce and take a long time to produce (like minerals) and avoid assets that are becoming abundant (like software).

Takeaways

  • Consider increasing portfolio allocation to the materials and energy sectors.
  • This theme is expected to be a long-term cycle, benefiting small-cap and value stocks related to commodities.
  • Look for opportunities in companies that are bottlenecks in the AI supply chain—the ones that dig things out of the ground.

Software Sector (e.g., Salesforce - CRM)

  • A very bearish view was expressed for the traditional Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sector.
  • The world of software is facing "abundance" and hyper-competition, which is described as "very, very dangerous for investors."
  • AI enables the instant creation of competing software businesses and allows for deep customization, which legacy, one-size-fits-all SaaS platforms like Salesforce are not built for.
  • New, AI-native businesses are unlikely to become customers of these older software platforms.
  • The speakers believe the "new AI bubble" is investors trying to buy the dip in software stocks, which they see as a mistake. Quoting Elon Musk, it's noted that while hyperbolic, the idea that many software companies could go to zero is "kind of true."

Takeaways

  • Exercise extreme caution with investments in traditional SaaS companies. Their business models are at high risk of disruption.
  • High valuations, which were based on strong future growth, are now in question as growth is expected to stall or decline due to AI-driven competition and commoditization.
  • Re-evaluate your portfolio's exposure to software, as you may be more heavily invested than you realize through broad market index funds.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speakers are bullish on Bitcoin, but for a different reason than is commonly cited. They believe its primary benefit comes from a world of deflation, not inflation.
  • AI is described as the "largest deflationary shock of all time." In a world where goods, services, and software become abundant and cheap, a verifiably scarce asset like Bitcoin becomes uniquely valuable.
  • The recent sideways price action following the ETF approval is viewed as a healthy consolidation (a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" event) rather than a bearish sign.
  • Bitcoin is described as the "only true store of value in the abundant world."

Takeaways

  • View Bitcoin as a long-term holding and a key hedge against the massive deflationary wave being created by AI.
  • Its scarcity is its most important feature in a future where digital and physical goods can be replicated with increasing ease.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • A direct analogy was made: "Ethereum is utility, Gold is Bitcoin."
  • The speakers noted that the ETH/BTC ratio chart has tracked the silver/gold ratio chart very closely.
  • Ethereum's recent outperformance against Bitcoin is seen as a very positive sign, similar to how silver began to outperform gold before its major price move. This suggests ETH is entering the "utility" phase of the cycle, where it's being recognized for its role in building the new digital economy.

Takeaways

  • There is a bullish outlook on Ethereum, particularly relative to Bitcoin.
  • If you believe in the thesis that the AI build-out requires physical utility metals like silver, then by analogy, the digital economy build-out requires a utility platform like Ethereum.

Solar Energy (TAN ETF)

  • The massive energy requirement for AI is a major theme. Solar is identified as the "only outcome" for scaling power generation quickly enough to meet this demand.
  • The TAN (Invesco Solar ETF) was specifically mentioned as a trade recommendation to gain exposure to this theme.
  • China has already doubled the entire world's solar supply in a single year, and the speakers believe the US and Europe will be forced to follow suit out of necessity.

Takeaways

  • The AI revolution is also an energy revolution. Investing in the power generation required for AI is a critical, parallel theme.
  • Consider an allocation to the solar sector via ETFs like TAN or individual solar-related companies to capitalize on this unavoidable infrastructure build-out.

International Equities (Europe & Brazil)

  • Europe: A contrarian bullish view was presented. European economies are heavily weighted towards manufacturing, materials, and green energy, positioning them perfectly for the hardware-focused super cycle. They are expected to outperform the tech-heavy U.S. market.
  • Brazil: Named as a "favorite investment for this year." As a commodity-rich nation with significant mineral resources, Brazil is seen as a primary beneficiary of the structural demand for raw materials.

Takeaways

  • Look beyond the U.S. for opportunities. A portfolio rebalancing towards international markets may be prudent.
  • Consider exposure to European equities, which are less exposed to the at-risk software sector, and commodity-producing emerging markets like Brazil.

NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens)

  • The speaker expressed a newfound bullishness on NFTs, viewing them as one of the three most interesting areas of crypto (along with Bitcoin and stablecoins).
  • NFTs are framed as "cultural memory packets." In a time of unprecedented technological change, they serve as scarce, digital artifacts that capture the stories, memes, and cultural moments of our era.
  • The value proposition is compared to Andy Warhol's art for the Baby Boomer generation; these digital assets will hold significant meaning and value for the generations living through this transition.

Takeaways

  • Re-evaluate NFTs beyond the "digital art" narrative. Their long-term value may come from their ability to function as scarce, historical records of a pivotal moment in human history.
  • In a world of digital abundance, the scarcity and cultural significance of key NFT collections could make them highly valuable.
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Episode Description
🔥 *Download Raoul Pal's 4-year investing roadmap for free:* https://rvtv.io/41fVHWF On the latest episode of The Journey Man, filmed with a live audience at Crypto Gathering 2026 in Miami, Raoul Pal sits down with Jordi Visser, head of AI macro nexus research at 22V, to discuss the commodity supercycle, the advancements in robotics and AI, the abundance vs. scarcity trade, the decline of software companies, and much more. Recorded January 24, 2026. 👉 Abra provides custody, trading, yield and BTC-backed loan products for digital assets for HNW and corporate clients. Abra provides full service treasury management for digital asset treasuries and corporations. Buy and hold digital assets in segregated accounts with multi-sig security. Visit https://www.realvision.com/abra to learn more. Timestamps: 00:00 Abra Sponsor 00:54 Welcome to The Journeyman 02:38 Macro, Crypto & AI Converge 05:06 Silver: The Metal Behind AI 08:00 The $85T AI Buildout 11:05 Resources, Geopolitics & Power 14:20 Europe’s Strategy vs the US 17:16 AI = Deflation Shock 20:19 Why Long-Duration Assets Break 23:02 Scarcity vs Abundance Investing 26:13 Stimulus, Politics & the AI Race 29:04 Why Silver Is Non-Negotiable 32:17 Is Software Actually Investable? 35:44 Agents Replace SaaS 38:53 Why Big Tech Can’t Adapt Fast Enough 42:05 Commodities: Rent or Own? 45:26 Solar, Power & Grid Bottlenecks 48:39 Energy Taxes & AI Economics 50:14 AGI Fears & the Human Question 53:18 Advice for Gen Z 55:22 AI as a Learning Weapon 56:49 NFTs as Cultural Memory 57:38 Final Thoughts & Outro Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Connect with me: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ My other work: Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3LHYIaH Global Macro Investor: https://globalmacroinvestor.com The Exponentialist: https://realvision.com/thefuture EXPAAM: https://expaam.com Connect with Real Vision™: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Get a FREE membership: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Raoul Pal: The Journey Man
Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

By Real Vision Podcast Network

The world is changing faster than ever before. This comes with life-changing opportunities but also unprecedented challenges. In The Journeyman, I talk to the greatest minds at the nexus of macro, crypto, and technology to figure out exactly what the Exponential Age means for us all. I uncover the big trends, potential investment opportunities, and economic risks and rewards, and ask the big questions on how this impacts us, our businesses, and our societies. Brought to you by Real Vision.