Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead? ft. Yat Siu
Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead? ft. Yat Siu
Podcast1 hr 13 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

For diversified exposure to the Web3 and altcoin ecosystem, consider investing in the fintech company Currency (CURR), which is set to merge with the massive Web3 investment firm Animoca Brands. The core long-term thesis suggests that the altcoin market, representing the application layer of crypto, will eventually become significantly larger than Bitcoin. Key infrastructure blockchains to watch are Solana (SOL), for its focus on tokenizing real-world assets, and Toncoin (TON), for its massive distribution advantage via the Telegram app. While Bitcoin is viewed as a foundational "digital gold," the most significant growth is expected from these application-focused tokens. For a more traditional technology play, the long-term bullish case for AI leader NVIDIA (NVDA) is considered intact, as it provides the essential hardware for the ongoing technological shift.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The discussion highlights the importance of a long-term, "macro" view when it comes to Bitcoin. The speakers recall when BTC was $3,000 in 2018 and Ethereum was $80, emphasizing that despite short-term volatility, the overall trend has been positive.
  • The traditional "four-year cycle" tied to the halving is described as a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by the beliefs of early crypto holders.
  • It's suggested that as more institutions enter the market, who do not follow this "religious cycle," the volatility of these cycles will soften and potentially disappear over time.
  • A key thesis presented is that while Bitcoin will be the "digital gold" and potentially the largest single asset, the collective market cap of altcoins (the application layer) will eventually be much larger. The analogy used is the global stock market ($128 trillion) being significantly larger than the gold market ($27 trillion).

Takeaways

  • Investors should consider a "zoom out" approach, focusing on the long-term trend rather than getting caught up in short-term cycle-based trading, unless that is their specific strategy.
  • The influence of the four-year halving cycle may diminish as the market matures and institutional capital, which operates on different principles, becomes more dominant.
  • While Bitcoin is a foundational asset, the larger growth opportunity in the crypto space may lie in the application-focused tokens and platforms (altcoins).

Altcoins (General Ecosystem)

  • The podcast presents a strong bullish case for the altcoin ecosystem, arguing it represents the "applications layer" of the new digital economy, similar to how companies like Google and Facebook were the application layer of the internet.
  • Yat Siu's main thesis is that altcoins collectively will exceed Bitcoin's market cap by 10 times in the mid-to-long term.
  • This category includes everything from smart contract platforms and gaming tokens to Real World Assets (RWAs) and meme coins, which are described as experiments in tokenizing culture and rapid capital formation.
  • The growth of this sector is seen as a key driver for bringing the next wave of users into crypto, as people often enter through a specific application (like a game or an NFT) rather than by buying Bitcoin directly.

Takeaways

  • The most significant long-term growth in the crypto market is projected to come from the diverse ecosystem of altcoins that provide specific utilities and applications.
  • Investors looking for higher growth potential should consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to the broader altcoin market, beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • This represents a higher-risk, higher-reward strategy compared to holding only major cryptocurrencies. Diversification across different types of altcoins (e.g., infrastructure, gaming, AI) could be a prudent approach.

Animoca Brands & Currency (CURR)

  • Animoca Brands is presented as a "permanent capital vehicle" that acts as a proxy or index for the broader Web3 and altcoin ecosystem.
  • The company holds a vast portfolio of over 628 companies across key growth sectors like Web3 gaming, AI, infrastructure, and Real World Assets (RWAs).
  • Animoca is in the process of going public on the NASDAQ through a reverse merger with Currency (CURR).
    • The merger terms are 95.5% for Animoca shareholders and 5% for existing CURR shareholders.
    • The public listing is intended to attract institutional investors and make the company an "ambassador for utility crypto."
  • CURR is not just a shell company; it's a fintech business with 13 million users in Southeast Asia, providing remittance services, which is seen as a perfect use case for crypto integration.

Takeaways

  • Investing in the publicly traded stock CURR is presented as a direct way to gain diversified exposure to Animoca's extensive portfolio of private and public Web3 companies.
  • This could be an attractive option for investors who want to bet on the growth of the entire crypto application layer but prefer the familiarity and regulatory structure of a traditional stock.
  • The existing business of CURR provides a strategic foothold in emerging markets that are prime for crypto adoption, adding a layer of synergy to the merger.

NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens)

  • The conversation emphasizes that NFTs are a powerful technology that goes far beyond the "PFP (Profile Picture) craze."
  • The core value of NFT technology is its ability to create digital scarcity and verifiable digital property rights for unique assets at a massive scale.
  • Future use cases are expected to be enormous, including:
    • Music: Creating a "decentralized Spotify" where artists have direct ownership and revenue streams.
    • Intellectual Property: Proving origination for creative works like dance moves, protecting creators from theft.
    • Tokenizing Culture: Assigning tangible, tradable value to cultural assets and communities.
  • Despite the market cooldown, the NFT space still generates $300 to $500 million in sales every month.

Takeaways

  • Investors should view NFTs as a foundational technology for the future of digital ownership, not just a fad for collectible art.
  • The real, long-term opportunity lies in platforms and companies that use NFT technology to disrupt industries like music, intellectual property, ticketing, and creator economies.
  • Owning "blue-chip" NFTs like CryptoPunks was mentioned as having been a better leveraged bet on the Ethereum ecosystem than holding ETH itself, suggesting high-quality NFTs can be a strong performing asset class.

Investment Themes & Sectors

Web3 Gaming

  • Context: Described as a "very natural onboarder" for bringing new users into the crypto ecosystem. While many gaming tokens have underperformed, the underlying gaming projects are often profitable businesses.
  • Takeaway: Web3 gaming is a critical sector for driving mass adoption. The key to successful investments will be identifying projects that create fun, engaging games first and integrate tokenomics in a sustainable way.

Solana (SOL)

  • Context: Solana is highlighted for its ambition to become a foundational layer for "internet capital markets," enabling the trading of tokenized stocks and other financial assets. It was mentioned that Solana is involved in an experiment to tokenize Animoca Brands' equity.
  • Takeaway: Solana is positioning itself as a key infrastructure play for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and the future of finance. Its performance may be tied to its success in attracting these high-value use cases.

Toncoin (TON)

  • Context: Animoca is a "big supporter" of TON because of its strategic value as a "distribution rail" through its deep integration with the Telegram messaging app. This provides a massive, built-in user base, bypassing the restrictions of traditional app stores.
  • Takeaway: Blockchains with strong, existing distribution channels like TON have a significant competitive advantage. This makes them a potentially valuable infrastructure investment for the growth of Web3 applications.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • Context: Mentioned as a company with great financial results. The speaker expressed a bullish view, dismissing the "AI bubble" narrative by stating that AI is here to stay and the demand for GPUs will remain fundamentally strong.
  • Takeaway: The long-term investment thesis for AI infrastructure leaders like NVIDIA is considered robust, as they provide the essential hardware for a technological revolution that is still in its early stages.
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Episode Description
🔥 *The Future of Finance is HERE: Join the waitlist* https://rvtv.io/3IQ5Bs6 ⚪ Raoul Pal and Yat Siu, co-founder of Animoca Brands, discuss how crypto is evolving into a fully institutional, tokenized, and AI-driven economy, with altcoins, NFTs, and real-world tokenization set to grow far beyond Bitcoin. They argue that cultural adoption, financial inclusion, and blockchain-based property rights will reshape global markets as the industry matures. Recorded November 21, 2025 ⚪ X: @ysiu 📣 Bitwise has been all-in on crypto since 2017 and has more than 20 crypto-based products to help investors get the access they need. Bitwise manages the world’s largest crypto index fund, one of the top Bitcoin ETFs, and one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking solutions. Bitwise has over $10 billion in assets under management and employs over 100 people in the US and Europe to manage a range of products, including ETFs, private alpha strategies, and SMAs for large investors. 👉 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing. 📣 Ready to see how Square can transform your business? 👉 Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠square.com/go/realvision⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more! #squarepod 📣 Start investing today - ⁠https://gemini.com/realvision⁠. 👉 Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Gemini Intergalactic UK, Ltd is registered with the Financial Conduct Authority, under Firm Reference Number: 921817 Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Connect with me: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ My other work: Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3LHYIaH Global Macro Investor: https://globalmacroinvestor.com The Exponentialist: https://realvision.com/thefuture EXPAAM: https://expaam.com Connect with Real Vision™: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Get a FREE membership: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Raoul Pal: The Journey Man
Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

By Real Vision Podcast Network

The world is changing faster than ever before. This comes with life-changing opportunities but also unprecedented challenges. In The Journeyman, I talk to the greatest minds at the nexus of macro, crypto, and technology to figure out exactly what the Exponential Age means for us all. I uncover the big trends, potential investment opportunities, and economic risks and rewards, and ask the big questions on how this impacts us, our businesses, and our societies. Brought to you by Real Vision.