The Rest of the Story, 2025
The Rest of the Story, 2025
134 days agoPlanet MoneyNPR
Podcast28 min 22 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Apollo Global Management (APO) as a long-term investment to capitalize on the multi-trillion dollar "global industrial renaissance" in energy and infrastructure. The recent failure of the government's "Click to Cancel" rule provides a direct tailwind for Rocket Companies (RKT), whose Rocket Money segment helps users manage unwanted subscriptions. The growing demand for mental healthcare services presents a significant opportunity for Teladoc Health (TDOC), which owns the popular online therapy platform BetterHelp. Investors should be cautious of the natural diamond industry, as the wholesale price of a high-quality, 1-carat lab-grown diamond has plummeted to just $137, posing a severe threat to traditional miners. Finally, remember that Amazon's (AMZN) high-margin advertising business is a powerful growth driver and a key part of the company's investment thesis.

Detailed Analysis

Rocket Companies (RKT)

  • The podcast discussed Rocket Money, a company that helps users manage and cancel unwanted subscriptions, which was acquired by Rocket Companies.
  • The business found success by pivoting to a subscription model itself—charging a subscription to help people cancel other subscriptions.
  • The company was acquired for over a billion dollars after its revenue grew significantly.
  • The CEO of Rocket Money stated the business continues to grow, noting that the average user added three new subscriptions over the past year.
  • Rocket Money processed over 10 million cancellations for its users in the last year alone.
  • A major factor discussed was the failure of the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) proposed "Click to Cancel" rule. This rule would have required companies to make canceling a service as easy as signing up. Its failure in court means the difficulty of canceling subscriptions—the core problem Rocket Money solves—is likely to persist.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The discussion suggests a positive outlook for Rocket Money's business model, which is a segment of the larger Rocket Companies (RKT).
  • Favorable Market Trend: The continued growth of the "subscription economy" acts as a strong tailwind. As consumers sign up for more services, the need for a management and cancellation tool like Rocket Money increases.
  • Regulatory Benefit: The failure of government regulation to simplify the cancellation process inadvertently strengthens Rocket Money's value proposition. For investors in RKT, this could be seen as a positive factor for continued growth in this business line.

The Diamond Industry (Lab-Grown vs. Natural)

  • The podcast provided an update on the rapidly falling price of lab-grown diamonds, highlighting a major disruption in the jewelry market.
  • A 1-carat, high-quality lab-grown diamond was purchased for a wholesale price of just $137.
  • For context, a natural diamond of similar quality would cost between $4,000 and $5,000.
  • The retail price for that same 1-carat lab-grown diamond has already fallen from approximately $1,000 to $800 over the past year, showing that the low wholesale costs are beginning to impact consumer prices.

Takeaways

  • Bearish on Traditional Diamonds: The huge price gap and ongoing price decline in lab-grown diamonds is a major threat to the traditional natural diamond industry. Companies that mine and sell natural diamonds may face severe pressure on their profits and market share.
  • Commoditization of Lab-Grown Diamonds: The incredibly low wholesale price suggests that lab-grown diamonds are becoming a commodity, where price is the main differentiator, not brand or quality. This will likely lead to thin profit margins for producers.
  • Investor Caution: Investors should be wary of companies heavily exposed to the natural diamond market. The core value of natural diamonds—their perceived scarcity—is being fundamentally challenged by a technologically identical and vastly cheaper product.

The Subscription Economy (Investment Theme)

  • The podcast explored the "subscription economy," a theme pioneered by companies like Salesforce (CRM) that has now expanded into nearly every sector.
  • The discussion highlighted the downside for consumers, termed the "subscription trap," where people are oversubscribed and find it intentionally difficult to cancel services.
  • A key development was the striking down of the FTC's "Click to Cancel" rule by a federal court. This means that for now, companies will not be forced by a broad federal rule to make cancellations easier.

Takeaways

  • Analyzing Subscription Businesses: When evaluating a company that uses a subscription model, investors should consider how much of its revenue might depend on customers who forget to cancel or find the process too difficult. Businesses that rely on this "trap" may face future regulatory or reputational risk.
  • Winners and Losers: The persistence of the "subscription trap" is a positive for companies that benefit from this inertia in recurring revenue. It is also a direct tailwind for businesses that help consumers fight back, such as Rocket Money (owned by RKT).
  • Focus on Value: The most durable subscription-based companies will be those that provide clear and consistent value, leading to high customer satisfaction and low churn, rather than those that rely on making it hard for customers to leave.

Apollo Global Management (APO)

  • A sponsor message from Apollo Global Management highlighted a specific, long-term investment thesis.
  • The firm is focused on what it calls the "global industrial renaissance."
  • Apollo estimates that key sectors like energy, infrastructure, and technology will need $75 to $100 trillion in new investment over the next decade to modernize and meet demand.
  • The firm positions itself as a primary source of the "long-duration capital" required for these large-scale, long-term projects.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sector Outlook: Apollo is signaling a strong belief in the long-term growth prospects of the industrial, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • Investment Thesis for APO: An investment in APO could be viewed as a way to gain diversified exposure to this massive, multi-trillion-dollar trend of industrial and energy modernization, as the firm is actively investing in these areas.
  • Long-Term Horizon: This is presented as a decade-long theme, making it more suitable for long-term investors than for those looking for short-term gains.

Paramount (PARA)

  • The podcast ended with a brief update about a lawsuit filed against Paramount.
  • The estate of the late radio host Paul Harvey is suing Paramount for allegedly using an audio clip in a show without permission.
  • The lawsuit is seeking financial damages and the removal of the audio from the show.

Takeaways

  • Minor Headline Risk: For a company the size of PARA, this lawsuit is a minor issue and is unlikely to have a material impact on the company's finances.
  • Monitor for Patterns: While this single event is not a major concern, investors in media companies should always monitor for any pattern of intellectual property (IP) disputes. A series of such lawsuits could indicate a larger, more costly problem with a company's content and legal processes.

Teladoc Health (TDOC)

  • A sponsor message from BetterHelp, which is owned by Teladoc Health, was featured.
  • The ad promoted therapy as a tool for managing stress, particularly around the holidays, framing it as a positive and normal form of self-care.

Takeaways

  • Growing Market for Mental Health: The ad's messaging reflects the broader cultural trend of destigmatizing and normalizing mental health services.
  • Potential Driver for TDOC: As the parent company of BetterHelp, one of the largest online therapy platforms, TDOC is positioned to directly benefit from the increasing demand for accessible mental healthcare. This societal shift represents a significant potential growth driver for the company.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon Ads was the lead sponsor of the podcast episode.
  • The ad copy emphasized how Amazon Ads leverages the company's "first-party signals" (i.e., its own customer data) to help other brands reach the right customers.

Takeaways

  • More Than E-Commerce and Cloud: This serves as a reminder that Amazon's advertising business is a powerful and fast-growing segment, representing a third pillar of the company alongside its retail and AWS cloud-computing businesses.
  • High-Margin Business: Amazon's ability to monetize its vast trove of customer shopping data through advertising is a high-margin revenue stream. This segment is a key contributor to Amazon's overall profitability and an important part of the investment case for AMZN.
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Episode Description
Most stories keep going even after we set down our microphones and the music fades up. That's why, at the end of each year, we look back and we take stock.  We call this tradition "The Rest of the Story." And we bring you updates on the stories we've reported, and from the people we've met along the way. Today, we check in on an engineer and patent attorney who made a safer saw; we get an update on the Planet Money game; an update on money in Gaza; and we have updates on a diamond that may or may not have had a second life.  Listen to the original stories: The Subscription Trap  Planet Money buys a mystery diamond  In Gaza, money is falling apart  BOARD GAMES 1: We're making a game   How to save 10,000 fingers  This episode of Planet Money was produced by Luis Gallo, edited by Alex Goldmark, fact-checked by Vito Emanuel, and engineered by Debbie Daughtry. Pre-order the Planet Money book and get a free gift. / Subscribe to Planet Money+ Play the new version of our game here. Version 4. Listen free: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts. Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.  Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices NPR Privacy Policy
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