Trump's War on "Artificial Intelligence," Elon v. Scott, and Google's Wall Street Meltdown
Trump's War on "Artificial Intelligence," Elon v. Scott, and Google's Wall Street Meltdown
2 hours ago•Pivot•New York Magazine
Podcast1 hr
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Microsoft (MSFT) is the clearest near-term standout: Azure grew 48%, revenue rose 19%, and capital spending came in below expectations; consider it for diversified exposure to AI and cloud growth.
  • Stay diversified across AI holdings: rising spending and circular financing could amplify a downturn if chip demand or customer returns weaken.
  • Treat Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) cautiously until free cash flow, debt growth, and search-ad performance improve; its latest quarter showed $9 billion in negative free cash flow and $51.4 billion in capital spending.
Detailed Analysis

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Microsoft beat quarterly expectations, with revenue up 19% and Azure cloud revenue up 48%. Capital spending was $45.2 billion, below expectations, and shares rose nearly 4%.
  • The discussion framed this as a strong balance: rapid growth without the level of unexpected spending that has worried investors elsewhere.
  • Microsoft also offered voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 employees while continuing to invest in AI.

Takeaways

  • The episode presented Microsoft as a relative bright spot among large AI investors: its growth was strong while capital spending came in below expectations.
  • Consider both sides of the story: the company’s AI investment is paired with a large workforce reduction, which may have implications for employees and morale.

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL, GOOG)

  • Alphabet missed quarterly earnings expectations for the first time in nearly four years. Revenue still grew 25%, and Google Cloud revenue more than doubled to $30.7 billion, but search advertising revenue grew 12%, below expectations.
  • The company reported negative free cash flow of $9 billion and quarterly capital spending of $51.4 billion. Long-term debt rose from $21 billion to $125 billion year over year.
  • Shares fell sharply after the report—described as down 13% at the time of recording and down roughly 9–10% in the initial post-earnings reaction.
  • Google’s Gemini app had reached 1 billion users, but the hosts raised concerns about whether its AI search product was reliable, citing an incorrect or nonresponsive answer about the 2020 U.S. election.

Takeaways

  • Alphabet’s cloud growth and Gemini user base are notable, but investors in the discussion were focused on whether returns will justify the company’s rising AI spending.
  • Monitor free cash flow, debt, and the performance of search advertising alongside AI adoption. The episode’s concerns about spending and search were presented as risks, not as a specific buy or sell recommendation.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA is investing in Meta as part of a broader AI partnership, while also holding stakes in companies including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
  • The hosts raised concern that some AI financing may be circular: chipmakers invest in companies that then use the funding to buy chips. They questioned whether NVIDIA’s demand is fully organic or partly supported by this financing loop.
  • NVIDIA was reportedly under DOJ scrutiny over its acquisition of Hugging Face and the potential effect on competitors. The episode also cited a report that U.S. intelligence agencies believed NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a Chinese spy; this was presented as reported information.
  • The hosts warned that if investors conclude AI demand is being artificially propped up, financing and valuations could unwind quickly.

Takeaways

  • NVIDIA remains central to the AI buildout, but the discussion highlighted financing structures and customer concentration as important risks to watch.
  • The hosts advised investors generally to remain invested while staying diversified, particularly because the timing and severity of any AI-market correction are unknown.

Meta (META)

  • Meta is partnering with NVIDIA on AI, including work tied to its Muse AI agent, and is seeking to raise nearly $100 billion through a stock offering to fund its ambitions. AMD is also investing in the offering.
  • Meta is expanding video on Instagram, including longer videos and a TV app. The hosts see this as a move to compete with YouTube and other streaming services, backed by Meta’s large user base.
  • One host predicted that Nielsen could report streaming data for Meta by the end of the following year. This was a prediction, not a confirmed milestone.
  • The discussion also flagged a dispute with publishers and creators over terms that could give Meta rights to use or scrape uploaded content.

Takeaways

  • Meta’s video expansion could create a larger advertising and viewing opportunity if it attracts sustained watch time, but the hosts emphasized that the competitive outcome is uncertain.
  • Content creators and publishers should pay attention to platform terms, while investors can watch whether Meta turns its audience and AI capabilities into durable video engagement and revenue.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD is investing $1 billion in Meta’s equity offering as part of the companies’ AI-related activity.
  • The hosts included AMD in their broader concern about AI companies and financing arrangements reinforcing demand for chips.

Takeaways

  • The episode gave no AMD-specific operating outlook or valuation view. The investment is best understood as part of the broader AI financing story, whose risks include circular funding and a rapid reversal if AI spending slows.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The hosts discussed a possible Tesla–SpaceX merger and Scott Galloway’s argument that such a deal could favor SpaceX shareholders at Tesla shareholders’ expense.
  • Galloway also cited Tesla’s declining deliveries and sales as context for his criticism.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was skeptical about the potential alignment of interests in a Tesla–SpaceX deal. Investors should distinguish Tesla’s operating performance from speculation about a merger; no deal terms or recommendation were provided.

SpaceX (Private)

  • SpaceX was mentioned as a potential merger partner for Tesla and as one of the companies in which NVIDIA reportedly holds a stake.
  • No valuation, transaction terms, or specific investment recommendation for SpaceX were discussed.

Takeaways

  • SpaceX is a private-company exposure in the transcript, not a publicly traded stock. The discussion mainly raised questions about how a potential merger could affect Tesla shareholders.

Anthropic (Private)

  • Anthropic was described as growing rapidly: its revenue was said to have increased 14-fold in the first half of the year.
  • The hosts discussed a hypothetical scenario in which Anthropic could reach $200 billion in annual revenue by 2028 if growth continued. They also suggested that its revenue per employee could eventually surpass NVIDIA’s.
  • These figures were used in a discussion of how a future IPO might be valued; they were speculative, not company guidance or a stated price target.

Takeaways

  • The episode presented Anthropic as a potentially fast-growing AI company, but the revenue scenario depends on continued exceptional growth and does not establish what the company is worth.
  • As a private company, Anthropic is not directly available to most public-market investors; the discussion offered no specific investment recommendation.

OpenAI (Private)

  • OpenAI was named among the companies in which NVIDIA reportedly holds a stake.
  • The episode did not provide company-specific financial results, valuation details, or a direct investment thesis.

Takeaways

  • OpenAI was mentioned as part of NVIDIA’s broader investment and partnership network, not as a standalone opportunity with enough detail for an investment conclusion.

Netflix (NFLX) and the Streaming Sector

  • The hosts described Meta’s expansion into longer video and TV as a potential challenge to YouTube and other streaming platforms.
  • The episode cited streaming-viewing shares of 16% for YouTube and 8% for Netflix, with smaller shares for Disney, Amazon Prime Video, Roku, Paramount+, Tubi, Peacock, and Warner Bros. Discovery.
  • One host said Netflix had recently faced poor momentum but expressed confidence in its management team and said he had been looking at the stock. He suggested it could recover, but did not give a price target or a specific recommendation.
  • The hosts identified YouTube as Meta’s likely primary target, while also noting that Meta’s ability to attract and retain creators remains an open question.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to intensifying competition for video viewing and advertising. Meta’s entry could pressure existing platforms, but the episode did not establish which services would lose the most.
  • Netflix was discussed as a possible recovery candidate based on management strength, while the viewing-share figures show YouTube’s current scale. Treat both as points to investigate rather than a definitive ranking of future winners.

AI Investment Theme

  • The hosts described AI infrastructure spending as an arms race, with companies committing large sums to compute while investors look for evidence that revenue and returns will catch up.
  • They warned that AI-related growth could continue, but that a correction could be severe if spending outpaces returns or if circular financing weakens.
  • They compared the current technology cycle with earlier infrastructure and internet booms, noting that transformative technologies can survive even when individual companies suffer large losses or fail.

Takeaways

  • The episode’s broad investment message was to stay diversified rather than assume every AI-linked company will benefit equally.
  • Watch for evidence that AI spending is producing sustainable revenue and cash flow, and be mindful of the concentration and financing risks discussed.
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Episode Description
Kara and Scott unpack Trump's bizarre attempt to ban the term “AI,” Elon Musk finally taking aim at Scott, and the final countdown to the midterms. Then, they discuss Microsoft's earnings win, Alphabet's Wall Street stumble, and Nvidia's increasingly circular AI investments. Plus, former Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer faces backlash over using AI to describe her daughter.Subscribe to Pivot Post at pivotshow.com.Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Pivot
Pivot

Pivot

By New York Magazine

Every Tuesday and Friday, tech journalist Kara Swisher and NYU Professor Scott Galloway offer sharp, unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics. They make bold predictions, pick winners and losers, and bicker and banter like no one else. After all, with great power comes great scrutiny. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.