Texas Flooding, Trump's Tariff Threats, and Elon's Political Party
Texas Flooding, Trump's Tariff Threats, and Elon's Political Party
305 days agoPivotNew York Magazine
Podcast1 hr 15 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Vertical Aerospace (EVTL), which one host called their "biggest investment in 2026" amid a strategic shift towards non-U.S. companies. New government spending is expected to create strong tailwinds for defense contractors and private prison stocks, positioning them as potential winners. Conversely, the broader clean energy and EV sector faces significant headwinds following the removal of the crucial $7,500 EV subsidy. For investors seeking EV exposure, Chinese automaker BYD (BYDDF) is presented as a strong competitor gaining market share from Tesla. Finally, monitor Oracle (ORCL), as a potential acquisition of TikTok's U.S. operations could serve as a major, albeit risky, catalyst for the stock.

Detailed Analysis

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The hosts note that Tesla shares were falling in pre-market trading at the time of the podcast.
  • Elon Musk's political activities, such as his announcement of a new political party, are viewed as a potential negative for the company. A guest on the show suggested that Tesla's board of directors would likely prefer Musk to focus on his business activities rather than political ones.
  • The company is facing significant competitive pressure in China, with sales "falling off there" due to strong competition from companies like BYD, which are producing "great cars."
  • A major headwind for Tesla and the entire EV industry is the new "Big Beautiful Bill," which scrapped EV subsidies. The podcast specifically mentions the $7,500 annual subsidy is going away, which could impact demand. Elon Musk is described as one of the "losers" of this bill.

Takeaways

  • Investors should be aware of several headwinds facing Tesla, including political distractions from its CEO, strong competition in key markets like China, and the loss of significant government subsidies in the U.S.
  • The removal of the $7,500 EV subsidy is a major policy change that could negatively affect Tesla's sales in the United States.
  • The rise of competitors like BYD is a critical factor to monitor, as it directly impacts Tesla's market share and growth potential abroad.

BYD (BYDDF)

  • The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD is mentioned as a formidable competitor to Tesla.
  • The hosts state that BYD has "great cars" and is a primary reason why Tesla's sales are falling in China.

Takeaways

  • BYD is presented as a strong player in the electric vehicle market, particularly in China.
  • For investors interested in the EV sector but concerned about the risks associated with Tesla, BYD could be considered a significant competitor and a potential alternative investment.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • Oracle is mentioned as the likely frontrunner to acquire the U.S. assets of TikTok.
  • The potential deal is described as likely being a partnership between Oracle, Marc Andreessen, and other wealthy individuals.
  • The hosts express skepticism about the deal, questioning whether China would ever truly give up control of TikTok's algorithm, suggesting any sale might be "window dressing."

Takeaways

  • A potential acquisition of TikTok's U.S. operations could be a major catalyst for Oracle.
  • Investors should monitor developments around the forced sale of TikTok, as Oracle is positioned to be a key player. However, the uncertainty and political complexity of the deal represent a significant risk.

Vertical Aerospace (EVTL)

  • Host Scott Galloway made a very specific and bullish statement about the company, calling it his "biggest investment in 2026."
  • He noted that his firm has seen a "serious uptick in investors interested" in the company.
  • This interest is part of a broader trend he's observing, where investors are "no longer defaulting to just investing in American companies" due to the political and economic climate in the U.S.

Takeaways

  • Vertical Aerospace, a British aerospace company, was highlighted as a high-conviction investment idea by one of the podcast hosts.
  • This could be an interesting opportunity for investors looking for non-U.S. exposure and who are interested in innovative industries like advanced air mobility.
  • The mention suggests a growing appetite among some investors to look for opportunities in international markets.

Ripple (XRP)

  • Ripple was featured in a sponsor message on the podcast.
  • The ad highlighted the company's decade of experience in blockchain, over 60 licenses, and "strong institutional trust."
  • It was presented as a provider of blockchain and crypto-powered solutions for financial institutions, enabling secure and fast global transactions.

Takeaways

  • The ad presents a bullish case for Ripple as an established and trusted player in the enterprise blockchain and crypto space.
  • For investors interested in the infrastructure layer of the crypto economy, Ripple is positioned as a company with significant institutional partnerships and regulatory experience.

Investment Themes & Sectors

Defense Contractors & Private Prisons

  • The podcast identifies defense contractors and private prison owners as "big winners" from the newly passed "Big Beautiful Bill."
  • The discussion around ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) highlights a massive increase in funding for enforcement, which directly benefits companies in this sector. Scott Galloway notes the U.S. is funding ICE at five times the rate Nazi Germany spent on its secret police, adjusted for inflation.

Takeaways

  • Government policy and spending priorities outlined in the new bill are expected to create a strong tailwind for companies in the defense and private prison industries.
  • Investors may see opportunities in these sectors due to the significant increase in government funding directed towards them.

Clean Energy & EV Sector

  • This sector is identified as one of the major "losers" of the "Big Beautiful Bill."
  • The primary reason is that the bill "scrapped EV subsidies," specifically the $7,500 annual subsidy that has helped drive consumer adoption.

Takeaways

  • The removal of key government subsidies creates a significant headwind for the entire clean energy and EV sector in the United States.
  • Companies reliant on these subsidies to drive sales may face challenges, and investors should re-evaluate the growth prospects of the sector in light of this policy change.

International (non-U.S.) Investments

  • A strong argument is made that the current political and economic environment in the U.S. is making international investments more attractive.
  • Scott Galloway states that investors are "no longer defaulting to just investing in American companies" and that the U.S. is "pulling up the ladders" of opportunity that once fueled its growth.
  • He uses his own investment in the British company Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) as a prime example of this shift in strategy.

Takeaways

  • The podcast suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by increasing their allocation to non-U.S. companies and markets.
  • The current U.S. political climate and policies may create headwinds for domestic companies while potentially creating opportunities for international competitors.
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Episode Description
Kara and Scott discuss the catastrophic flooding in Texas, and the blame game over forecasts, funding, and warning systems. Then, Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is now law, so who wins, who loses, and what does the bill mean for the future of the country? Plus, Elon forms a new political party, and TikTok reportedly prepares to launch a U.S. app. Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠. Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or at ⁠⁠nymag.com/pivot⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Pivot
Pivot

Pivot

By New York Magazine

Every Tuesday and Friday, tech journalist Kara Swisher and NYU Professor Scott Galloway offer sharp, unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics. They make bold predictions, pick winners and losers, and bicker and banter like no one else. After all, with great power comes great scrutiny. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.