Anthropic's IPO Filing, Elon's Talarico Obsession, and Elizabeth Holmes' Box Office Surprise
Anthropic's IPO Filing, Elon's Talarico Obsession, and Elizabeth Holmes' Box Office Surprise
1 hour ago•Pivot•New York Magazine
Podcast1 hr 4 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat Anthropic’s proposed IPO as a watchlist opportunity, not a confirmed buy: no offering price or valuation is disclosed, and the discussed $2 trillion figure is speculative.
  • Before investing, assess whether its rapid revenue growth can support its major infrastructure commitments, cash needs, and customer concentration.
  • Monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) as competitive risks to paid, cloud-based AI; the discussion provides no price targets or specific buy recommendations.
Detailed Analysis

Anthropic (Private; proposed IPO)

  • The company has filed for an IPO, but it has not disclosed how much it plans to raise or an offering price.
  • The filing reported $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier. The hosts described its growth as extraordinary.
  • The filing reported a very large net loss. Scott Galloway argued that much of the reported loss—about $72 billion—was an accounting charge from converting convertible debt into equity, rather than cash operating losses. He also cited an underlying loss estimate of about $9 billion; the transcript does not reconcile these figures in detail.
  • Anthropic has committed more than $600 billion to future cloud-computing deals, according to the discussion. The hosts also noted that five customers accounted for roughly a quarter of revenue.
  • Galloway speculated that the company could be valued at about $2 trillion at its IPO. This was his estimate, not a disclosed valuation or price target: he reasoned from a roughly $40 billion annualized revenue run rate and a hypothetical path to $200 billion in revenue.
  • The co-founders, including CEO Dario Amodei, would retain 50.1% of voting power, according to the filing.
  • Risks discussed included high infrastructure spending, the need to sustain rapid growth, dependence on major customers, limited power availability, possible regulation and public distrust, opposition to data centers, and competition from NVIDIA and Meta. The hosts also highlighted Anthropic’s own warnings about AI safety and misalignment.

Takeaways

  • Anthropic’s growth could make the IPO a major AI investment opportunity, but the transcript provides no offering price or confirmed valuation. Treat the $2 trillion figure as speculation, not a basis for an investment decision.
  • Before evaluating an offering, examine cash losses and cash needs alongside revenue growth, the economics of cloud commitments, customer concentration, and how much control public shareholders would have.
  • The key question raised by the discussion is whether revenue can keep growing fast enough to justify the company’s substantial infrastructure commitments.

AI infrastructure and data centers

  • The hosts discussed a sharp increase in spending on computing infrastructure and argued that the constraint may be electricity and power availability, not just chips.
  • They described the sector as involving substantial capital expenditures and “circular deals,” while warning that some cloud-computing providers could struggle if AI-company growth slows.
  • Elon Musk was described as criticizing data-center expansion while also having business interests in compute infrastructure; the hosts cautioned that this could reflect his own commercial interests.

Takeaways

  • For investors considering AI infrastructure, the discussion points to power access, utilization, financing, and the durability of customer demand as important factors to investigate.
  • Rapid AI growth does not by itself ensure that every data-center or cloud provider will earn attractive returns; the hosts specifically warned that the spending commitments could become difficult to support if growth falters.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA was identified as a competitive threat to Anthropic. The hosts discussed the possibility of NVIDIA putting GPUs directly into client devices such as phones, potentially reducing reliance on large language models running in cloud data centers.
  • No NVIDIA price target or specific buy/sell recommendation was given.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights a potential competitive shift between cloud-based AI and AI processing on devices. Investors could watch whether on-device computing meaningfully reduces demand for cloud-based AI services and infrastructure.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta was described as a competitive threat because it has its own AI model, offers it for free, and has a large existing audience and business relationships.
  • The hosts cited its model’s popularity in the app store and Meta’s reach among consumers and businesses. No valuation, price target, or specific recommendation was discussed.

Takeaways

  • Meta’s existing distribution and ability to offer AI tools for free could put pressure on paid AI providers. The transcript does not establish how that competition will affect Meta’s own financial results.

OpenAI (Private)

  • OpenAI was discussed mainly as a comparison with Anthropic and as a possible future IPO. The hosts noted differences in how the two companies account for revenue and suggested Anthropic’s IPO could affect expectations for an OpenAI offering.
  • No OpenAI IPO date, valuation, offering price, or investment recommendation was provided.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offers no basis for estimating OpenAI’s public-market value. Any comparison with Anthropic should account for differences in revenue recognition and business costs, as raised by the hosts.

SpaceX and Starlink (Private)

  • SpaceX was used as a valuation comparison: Galloway said a hypothetical $2 trillion Anthropic valuation might look inexpensive relative to SpaceX and some other companies. He did not provide a SpaceX valuation.
  • The hosts also discussed reports that Elon Musk restricted Ukraine’s access to Starlink, which he acknowledged while disputing Ukraine’s account of the circumstances. They framed the episode as a governance and accountability concern, not a financial analysis.
  • No SpaceX price target or investment recommendation was given.

Takeaways

  • The transcript raises potential governance and political risks around a private company whose technology has strategic importance. It does not provide enough financial information to assess SpaceX as an investment.

Skydance (Private)

  • The hosts said Musk reportedly invested about $1 billion in David Ellison’s Skydance. The discussion gave no information about the investment terms, valuation, or expected return.

Takeaways

  • The reported investment is a notable private-market transaction, but the transcript does not provide enough detail to assess its potential return or implications for other investors.

Cryptocurrency (No specific asset named)

  • Crypto was mentioned only in passing: Galloway contrasted young people trading crypto through Robinhood with their participation in voting.
  • No cryptocurrency, investment thesis, price, or recommendation was discussed.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no actionable insight on any specific cryptocurrency.
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Episode Description
Kara and Scott break down Anthropic’s IPO filing — the revenue, the losses, and the risks to humanity. Then, with just a week to go before the midterms, Elon Musk pours millions into the Texas Senate race, and James Talarico fires back. Plus, Elon admits to restricting Ukraine’s Starlink access, and Kara gives her review of the hit Elizabeth Holmes documentary, "You Can See Everything." THIS EPISODE CONTAINS SPOILERS FOR "YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING!" A new Pivot newsletter is coming. Subscribe to the Pivot Post and get more from Kara and Scott every week: http://pivotshow.com Kara and Scott are going on tour! Tickets are still available in New York, Minneapolis, LA, San Francisco and Denver: https://www.PivotTour.com Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email Pivot@voxmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Pivot
Pivot

Pivot

By New York Magazine

Every Tuesday and Friday, tech journalist Kara Swisher and NYU Professor Scott Galloway offer sharp, unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics. They make bold predictions, pick winners and losers, and bicker and banter like no one else. After all, with great power comes great scrutiny. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.