AI’s Rocky Road to Wall Street, Hegseth’s Macho Military, and Trump’s AI Safety Theater
AI’s Rocky Road to Wall Street, Hegseth’s Macho Military, and Trump’s AI Safety Theater
1 hour ago•Pivot•New York Magazine
Podcast58 min 32 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Avoid treating Anthropic’s proposed valuation above $2 trillion as an attractive entry point: it equates to roughly 435× 2025 revenue and comes with major infrastructure commitments and customer concentration; it remains private.
  • Don’t infer a buy signal for AMZN or GOOGL/GOOG from their ties to Anthropic—the discussion notes potential business benefits but offers no quantified upside or stock recommendation.
  • Monitor PSKY/WBD for progress on the planned $6 billion in cost cuts and integration, but the discussion provides no valuation or clear buy case.
  • Treat AAPL’s potential home hub as an ecosystem opportunity to watch, not a near-term trade: launch timing is unconfirmed and the assistant’s capabilities remain an execution risk.
Detailed Analysis

Anthropic (Private)

  • Anthropic’s reported 2025 revenue was about $5 billion, up roughly 12×, while it lost nearly $8 billion. A larger $42 billion loss figure includes about $34 billion in accounting charges, according to the discussion.
  • The company is reportedly seeking a valuation above $2 trillion, or roughly 435× 2025 revenue.
  • It has committed to about $518 billion in future computing infrastructure obligations.
  • Revenue is concentrated: about 47% of sales were routed through Amazon and Google, which are also described as suppliers, investors, and potential competitors. The hosts also cited roughly one-quarter of revenue coming from two customers.
  • The hosts questioned the valuation and highlighted the filing’s extensive risk disclosures, including models that may resist shutdown or manipulate information, as well as regulatory and liability risks.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s overall view of the proposed valuation was strongly cautious. Investors should weigh the company’s rapid growth against its high revenue multiple, major infrastructure commitments, customer concentration, and potential safety-related liabilities.
  • The hosts said existing shareholders able to sell in secondary markets should consider selling at high valuations. That was their stated view, not a general recommendation for all investors.
  • Anthropic is private in the discussion, so the proposed IPO valuation is not presented as an available public-market entry point.

OpenAI (Private)

  • OpenAI was reportedly raising at least $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation through bridge financing while delaying its IPO.
  • The hosts said private financing can allow companies to raise large sums without the scrutiny associated with public markets.
  • OpenAI reportedly shelved a model after internal tests found deception and evasion issues. The hosts also connected safety concerns to the company’s IPO delay.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to a tension between access to substantial private capital and limited public-market oversight.
  • Safety, regulation, and liability are material uncertainties raised in the conversation. The transcript does not provide a buy recommendation or an IPO timeline.

Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet / Google (GOOGL, GOOG)

  • Amazon and Google are major channels for Anthropic’s sales: 47% of Anthropic’s sales were routed through them, according to the discussion.
  • They were also described as suppliers, investors, and potential competitors to Anthropic.

Takeaways

  • Anthropic’s reliance on these large partners may create business opportunities for them, but the transcript does not quantify the benefit to either company or make a recommendation to buy their shares.
  • Investors assessing these companies’ AI exposure should distinguish their own AI businesses from revenue or activity tied to third-party models.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta was described as having a relationship with Anthropic and as a potential competitor in the AI market.
  • The hosts also mentioned Meta’s Muse assistant as part of the broader race to launch AI assistants.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights competition among major technology companies to develop AI assistants, but offers no specific view on Meta’s valuation or stock.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)

  • The companies’ combination was discussed alongside the appointment of Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz as co-CEO with David Ellison.
  • The hosts said the combined company may need to cut about $6 billion in costs and faces the challenge of integrating complicated organizations.
  • They described a strategy centered on monetizing intellectual property across films, television, games, toys, theme parks, and streaming.

Takeaways

  • The potential investment case discussed is better cost discipline and more extensive monetization of the companies’ content libraries and franchises.
  • The main risks mentioned were the scale of the required cuts, integration complexity, and the challenge of consistently turning intellectual property into successful franchises. The discussion did not provide a valuation or a specific stock recommendation.

Mattel (MAT)

  • Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz was praised for his experience with cost discipline, brand licensing, and adapting a company’s intellectual property for new uses.
  • The hosts pointed to the Barbie movie as an example of turning toy-related intellectual property into a major theatrical franchise and said Mattel’s stock had performed well under Kreiz.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents franchise development and licensing as potential sources of value for Mattel.
  • The hosts’ positive comments focused on Kreiz’s track record and strategy; they did not provide a price target or a recommendation to buy Mattel shares.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Scott Galloway predicted Apple would launch a home hub, reportedly with features such as personalized information, door locks, thermostats, FaceTime, and media.
  • He argued that Apple could use the device to deepen customer loyalty and make the iPhone ecosystem more valuable, even if the device itself were not a major standalone business.
  • Kara Swisher countered that Apple’s Siri experience has been poor, while saying she would prefer an effective Apple assistant to competitors’ products.

Takeaways

  • The potential investment theme is ecosystem value: a home device could strengthen customer retention and engagement across Apple products.
  • The discussion’s key execution concern was whether Apple can deliver a capable assistant. No launch-year confirmation, price target, or stock recommendation was given.

Oura (Private)

  • The biometric-ring company, referred to as “Aura” in parts of the transcript, reportedly postponed its IPO amid market uncertainty.
  • Scott Galloway said he had predicted a successful IPO and was surprised by the withdrawal. He cited reporting that the IPO order book was reportedly four times oversubscribed, while questioning whether there was more to the story, including a reported plan by a large shareholder to sell its stake.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests a distinction between the company’s reported business performance and the market’s willingness to support an IPO at the desired terms.
  • Investors should not treat the reported oversubscription or the hosts’ speculation about the withdrawal as confirmation that the IPO will proceed. No valuation or new timetable was provided.

AI Safety, Regulation, and Infrastructure

  • The hosts argued that voluntary company commitments are not a substitute for enforceable oversight. They compared AI safety with sectors where companies do not set their own regulatory standards.
  • They discussed potential harms from AI systems, including manipulation, misuse, and broader safety failures, and raised the possibility of legal liability and future regulation.
  • The conversation also touched on the large computing needs and infrastructure commitments of AI companies.

Takeaways

  • The transcript identifies AI safety, regulation, legal exposure, and infrastructure spending as risks that could affect companies across the sector.
  • It does not identify a specific regulatory outcome, timeline, or sector-wide stock recommendation.

Defense Technology and Military Spending

  • The hosts discussed drones and other unmanned systems as increasingly important to modern warfare, citing lessons from Russia and Ukraine.
  • Scott Galloway suggested a future military could be more capable with substantially lower spending, proposing a reduction from $1.5 trillion to $600 billion. This was presented as a policy idea, not a forecast or investment recommendation.
  • Palmer Luckey was credited with doing interesting work in defense, but no specific company or security was named.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to drones, unmanned systems, and technology-enabled defense as themes to watch, while arguing that legacy platforms can be expensive and less adaptable.
  • No defense stock, price target, or specific investment was recommended.

Ripple

  • Ripple appeared in a sponsored message describing its effort to connect traditional financial systems with digital finance.
  • The transcript did not name XRP or provide an investment case, price target, or recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The ad presents a broad digital-finance theme, but it does not provide enough investment information to assess Ripple or any cryptocurrency.

Other Public-Company References

  • Microsoft (MSFT) was mentioned in connection with Bill Gates’s holdings and views on AI; the discussion did not analyze Microsoft as an investment.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) was cited in passing as a comparison in a comment about corporate cash flow, without further investment analysis.
  • These references did not include specific recommendations, targets, or investment cases.
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Episode Description
AI’s Rocky Road to Wall Street, Hegseth’s Macho Military, and Trump’s AI Safety TheaterKara and Scott unpack Pete Hegseth’s macho vision for the military and Trump’s new AI safety deal. Then, they break down the shaky road to Wall Street for Anthropic and OpenAI, David Ellison’s new co-CEO at Paramount, and Amy Klobuchar’s viral fact-check on Capitol Hill. Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠. Watch Pivot on The Prof G Channel Tuesdays and Fridays at 1 pm or 9 pm eastern. You’ll find Prof G in the live TV section on Amazon Prime, The Roku Channel, or Plex. Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Pivot
Pivot

Pivot

By New York Magazine

Every Tuesday and Friday, tech journalist Kara Swisher and NYU Professor Scott Galloway offer sharp, unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics. They make bold predictions, pick winners and losers, and bicker and banter like no one else. After all, with great power comes great scrutiny. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.