AI Faceoffs at the Super Bowl, Bob Iger's Heir Apparent, and WaPo's Brutal Cuts
AI Faceoffs at the Super Bowl, Bob Iger's Heir Apparent, and WaPo's Brutal Cuts
92 days agoPivotNew York Magazine
Podcast1 hr 13 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider the recent price drop in Alphabet (GOOGL) as a potential buying opportunity, as its staggering earnings growth and massive AI spending signal long-term strength. The market has misinterpreted the company's aggressive investment in AI as a negative, but it is a key advantage over competitors. Disney (DIS) is also presented as an undervalued value buy, with its strong Parks and Streaming assets being held back by its legacy TV business. A potential spin-off of networks like ESPN is a key catalyst that could unlock significant value for shareholders. Investors should look for any strategic restructuring at Disney as a signal to buy.

Detailed Analysis

Anthropic (Private Company)

  • The company is launching a series of Super Bowl ads for its AI chatbot, Claude, that poke fun at competitor OpenAI's plan to introduce ads into ChatGPT.
  • The ads are described as "genius" and a pivotal moment that could lead to Anthropic becoming more valuable than OpenAI within 12 months.
  • Their branding strategy focuses on a key differentiator: Claude will not have ads. This is seen as:
    • Relevant: Users are uncomfortable with the idea of an AI monetizing their most intimate questions and conversations (e.g., therapy, medical advice).
    • Sustainable: It's a position they can own unless OpenAI backtracks on its ad plans.
  • The campaign is already considered a success, generating significant buzz before the game even airs.

Takeaways

  • While Anthropic is a private company and not directly investable for the public, its strategy highlights a major competitive battle in the AI sector.
  • The "ad-free" vs. "ad-supported" business model will be a key theme to watch. Anthropic is positioning itself as the more trustworthy, private alternative, which could attract users and enterprise customers.
  • This represents a significant branding and competitive threat to OpenAI's dominance.

OpenAI (Private Company)

  • The company is facing a major branding attack from Anthropic regarding its decision to introduce ads to ChatGPT.
  • The podcast hosts believe this is a major strategic error, making the platform feel less trustworthy, especially for sensitive use cases like therapy, which is a primary use for AI chatbots.
  • The sentiment is strongly bearish. Scott Galloway stated, "I think OpenAI is fucked."
  • He believes the company is being attacked from all sides:
    • From the side: By Anthropic with superior branding and positioning.
    • From above: By Alphabet (Google), which has a massive user base, more data, and immense resources to pour into its own AI.
    • From below: By open-source AI models.
  • The hosts believe OpenAI may have already reached its peak valuation, with a planned fundraising round at $850 billion potentially being the "high watermark."

Takeaways

  • Investors with exposure to OpenAI (for example, through its major partner Microsoft) should be aware of the rapidly increasing competitive pressures.
  • The decision to introduce ads is viewed as a significant vulnerability that competitors are exploiting effectively.
  • The company's long-term dominance is being questioned, with the hosts suggesting its valuation may be at or near its peak.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • The company's recent earnings report was described as "nothing short of staggering."
  • Key performance metrics were very strong:
    • Google Search revenue is up 17% since ChatGPT was released, showing it has successfully defended its core business against the AI threat.
    • YouTube revenue grew by 9%.
    • Google Cloud revenue surged by 48%.
  • Alphabet plans a massive increase in capital expenditures (capex) to between $165 and $175 billion in 2026, which is more than double the 2025 spending, with the investment going towards AI.
  • The market reacted negatively to the high capex announcement, causing the stock to drop. However, the hosts view this spending as a "feature, not a bug," as it demonstrates Alphabet's financial power and commitment to winning in AI.

Takeaways

  • Alphabet is showing incredible strength across all its major business segments, proving its resilience and ability to innovate.
  • The company is not just defending its turf but is aggressively investing to lead in the AI era.
  • The negative market reaction to the high spending could be interpreted as a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors who believe in the company's AI strategy.

Disney (DIS)

  • The company's earnings beat expectations, with the Experiences division (parks and cruises) reporting over $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time.
  • The hosts reiterated their belief that the company's stock is undervalued due to its conglomerate structure.
  • A "good bank, bad bank" strategy was proposed to unlock value:
    • The "Good Bank" (Core Assets): The Parks, the Studio (IP creation), and the Streaming services (Disney+). These businesses are growing, have strong synergies, and are seen as the future of the company.
    • The "Bad Bank" (Legacy Assets): The linear TV networks like ESPN, ABC, FX, and National Geographic. These are described as an "anchor" and an "overhang" on the stock, as the market assigns their low valuation multiple to the entire company.
  • The hosts believe that if Disney were to sell or spin off the linear networks (even for $1), the remaining company would be worth more.
  • The stock is seen as a potential target for an activist investor if the new leadership doesn't move to restructure the company.

Takeaways

  • Disney possesses incredibly valuable and growing assets in its Parks, IP library, and Streaming services.
  • The primary drag on the stock's performance is the declining linear TV business.
  • Investors should watch for any strategic moves to separate the core growth assets from the legacy media assets. Such a move would likely be a major positive catalyst for the stock price.
  • The stock is presented as a potential value buy for investors who believe in the strength of the core assets and the likelihood of a future restructuring.

Investment Theme: Risk to US Big Tech

  • A prediction was made that foreign nations, particularly in Europe, will begin to push back against the dominance of US technology companies.
  • This pushback is described as a form of "reciprocal tariff" against US economic policies.
  • Nations may start banning or restricting US platforms under the guise of protecting citizens (e.g., children's mental health), with the underlying motivation being economic and geopolitical.
  • Platforms and services mentioned as potential targets include:
    • Social Media: Meta (Facebook/Instagram), YouTube (Google), X
    • Business Services: Zoom, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey

Takeaways

  • This represents a significant geopolitical risk for large US multinational companies that rely on global growth.
  • Investors in Big Tech should be aware that the era of unchecked global expansion may be facing headwinds as other countries seek to promote local alternatives and assert their own economic power.
  • This could negatively impact future revenue and growth for companies like Meta, Alphabet, and others with large international footprints.
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Episode Description
Pivot takes a look at Anthropic's surprise Super Bowl offensive against OpenAI, and Scott explains why he thinks they are "the definition of intelligent branding." Also, Kara and Scott unpack Alphabet's blockbuster earnings, and what a potential Clinton testimony in the Epstein case could mean. Then: Disney finally names Bob Iger's successor after years of drama, and The Washington Post slashes a third of its workforce in devastating layoffs. Is this Kara's moment to step in and buy it? Scott has some thoughts. Watch this episode on the ⁠⁠Pivot YouTube channel⁠⁠.Follow us on Instagram and Threads at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcastofficial⁠⁠.Follow us on Bluesky at ⁠⁠@pivotpod.bsky.social⁠⁠Follow us on TikTok at ⁠⁠@pivotpodcast⁠⁠.Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Pivot
Pivot

Pivot

By New York Magazine

Every Tuesday and Friday, tech journalist Kara Swisher and NYU Professor Scott Galloway offer sharp, unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics. They make bold predictions, pick winners and losers, and bicker and banter like no one else. After all, with great power comes great scrutiny. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.