There's a Mind-Boggling Number of Rich People in America
There's a Mind-Boggling Number of Rich People in America
1 day agoOdd LotsBloomberg
Podcast59 min 44 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should target lower-middle-market private equity and search funds consolidating fragmented service sectors like HVAC, plumbing, and pest control, which deliver average annualized returns in the low 20% range. Deploying capital into multi-location dental practices and specialized outpatient clinics captures resilient cash flows and massive roll-up value fueled by ongoing medical provider shortages. Backing auto dealership networks provides highly defensive returns secured by state-level franchise protections, geographical monopolies, and high-margin financing and repair services. Business operators should structure enterprises as S-Corporations or LLCs to secure effective tax rates below 30%, while monitoring proposed tax deduction caps on income exceeding $400,000. Venture investors should approach high-flying generative AI platforms like Suno—currently targeting a $5 billion valuation—with caution due to severe copyright and intellectual property downside risks from major media rights holders.

Detailed Analysis

Pass-Through Businesses & S-Corporations

  • The vast majority of wealth generation in the top 1% and 0.1% in the U.S. stems from pass-through entities (such as S-Corps and LLCs) rather than publicly traded C-corporations.
    • Pass-through entities avoid corporate taxes; income and losses pass directly to owners, often bypassing payroll taxes and Medicare surcharges.
    • In 2017 tax reforms, pass-through business tax rates were lowered from 37% to below 30%.
    • Between 2001 and 2021, value added per worker grew from $34,000 to $52,000; owners captured $15,000 of that $18,000 increase, while workers received the remainder.
    • While framed politically as "small businesses," Treasury data indicates only 20% of pass-through income belongs to genuinely small operations; the rest belongs to large, highly profitable private enterprises.

Takeaways

  • Structuring business ventures or professional practices as pass-through entities (such as S-Corps) provides substantial tax advantages compared to standard salaried (W-2) compensation.
  • Investors should monitor potential tax policy risks, particularly proposals aiming to cap pass-through deductions for incomes exceeding $400,000 or $1,000,000.

Auto Dealerships & Regional Monopolies

  • Auto dealers rank as the number one industry generating pass-through business income in the top 0.1% of earners.
    • Profitability is heavily driven by legal and franchise protections that create geographical barriers to entry, preventing manufacturers from adding competing local dealerships.
    • Dealers capture strong margins on high-markup ancillary services, including warranty repairs, parts, and financing origination, rather than just the initial vehicle sale.
    • Well-run dealership networks often achieve massive scale through consolidation before selling to private consortiums or large dealer groups for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Takeaways

  • Businesses benefiting from state-level franchise protections, geographical monopolies, and high-margin recurring add-ons (financing, service, warranties) offer exceptionally durable cash flows.

Private Equity & Search Funds (Small-to-Mid Market Buyouts)

  • An immense wave of private business wealth is transitioning as the Baby Boomer generation retires, creating opportunities for private equity and search funds to acquire founder-owned companies.
    • Private equity roll-ups are actively deploying capital into unglamorous, fragmented industries like HVAC, plumbing, pest control, cabinet manufacturing, and specialty healthcare services.
    • Search funds—where entrepreneurs raise capital to acquire a single small business (a "mini-LBO")—often operate with 40% to 50% bank leverage rather than the higher leverage ratios typical of mega-cap private equity.
    • While the median search fund return is negative due to failed search attempts, the average annualized return for completed deals is in the low 20% range, with top performers achieving up to 100x returns.

Takeaways

  • Capital deployment into fragmented, cash-flow-positive service businesses (via search funds or lower-middle-market private equity funds) offers an attractive risk-adjusted profile with significant operational upside.

Healthcare Practices (Dentistry & Doctors' Offices)

  • Doctors' offices represent the number one category of pass-through profits among four-digit BEA industries in the top 1%, with dental practices ranking at #21.
    • Total dental industry revenue in the U.S. exceeds the combined revenue of the NFL, NBA, and MLB.
    • Owners who scale from single-practitioner setups to multi-location practices capture substantial profits by leveraging associate labor while shielding profits through pass-through entity structures.
    • High demand, pricing power, and artificial supply restrictions (e.g., OECD comparisons showing roughly 30% fewer doctors per capita in the U.S.) sustain premium profit margins across private medical practices.

Takeaways

  • Multi-location dental and specialized outpatient healthcare practices represent highly lucrative cash-flow assets, making them prime candidates for private equity roll-up strategies or direct ownership.

Suno (AI Music Generation)

  • Suno, an AI-generated music platform, is pitching investors on a valuation exceeding $5 billion.
    • The platform enables users to generate complete songs across various genres from text prompts, user-uploaded lyrics, or audio samples.
    • Significant legal and financial risk exists regarding whether training models infringed on copyrights held by record labels and artists, and whether those rights holders must be compensated.

Takeaways

  • Generative AI media platforms carry rapid growth potential and multi-billion-dollar private valuations, but investors face substantial downside risk from ongoing intellectual property litigation with established media rights holders.
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Episode Description
In 2014, the economists Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick were asked by the Treasury to conduct a study on the tax burden of private business owners. It was tricky to figure out how much these sorts of business owners — auto dealers, contractors, the like — actually owed in taxes: After Reagan's 1986 tax reforms, pass-through businesses and other accounting tricks became widespread enough to obscure this class of wealthy Americans hiding in plain sight. The research they conducted led to their new book The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There, and one of their central findings is that there are about three million private business owners who have an average wealth of around $25 million. They call this group “Main Street Millionaires” and their influence on the economy and politics in the US is considerable. We speak with Zidar and Zwick today about how they measured the actual number of rich people in America by sifting through reams of tax forms, why income inequality started to rise in tandem with the growing number of pass-through businesses, and how it's possible that the collective revenue of the nation's dentists far exceeds that of the NFL. Read more: Tech’s New Rich Are Suffering From ‘Sudden Wealth Syndrome’ Jobless Tech Workers Are Being Left Out of San Francisco’s AI Boom Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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