Hollywood Was Cooked Before AI, and Now It's Only Getting Worse
Hollywood Was Cooked Before AI, and Now It's Only Getting Worse
2 hours ago•Odd Lots•Bloomberg
Podcast32 min 7 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

No specific stock trade is supported by these insights; they provide no company-level financial analysis or price targets for NFLX, AMZN, or FOXA. Investors in entertainment-related real estate should monitor studio occupancy and production levels, which have fallen sharply, for signs of sustained utilization risk. Within media, prioritize companies with proven hit titles over those relying mainly on large, undifferentiated content libraries.

Detailed Analysis

Netflix (NFLX)

  • Netflix was cited as part of the streaming expansion that helped reshape Hollywood: more shows were made for streaming services as network and cable production declined.
  • The hosts also referenced a reported $1 billion studio project in New Jersey. The discussion linked production moving away from Los Angeles to tax incentives and labor costs, while noting that demand for studio space has weakened.

Takeaways

  • The episode points to a mixed picture for streaming investment: streaming helped drive an earlier production boom, but the industry is now making fewer productions and some studio capacity may be underused.
  • Treat the New Jersey project as evidence of shifting production geography, not proof of Netflix’s overall investment outlook. The transcript gives no company-specific financial analysis or stock recommendation.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon was mentioned alongside Netflix as a streaming service that helped expand the number of shows being produced in the late 2010s.
  • The conversation provided no current production figures, financial details, or specific outlook for Amazon.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offers historical context about streaming’s role in Hollywood, but not enough company-specific information to support an investment conclusion about Amazon.

Fox Corporation (FOXA / FOX)

  • The hosts said that some Fox game shows and studio comedies are filmed in Dublin, Ireland, citing tax incentives and labor costs as reasons productions move abroad.
  • This was presented as part of a broader pattern of productions following favorable economics rather than remaining in Los Angeles.

Takeaways

  • For media companies, production location can be influenced by tax breaks and labor costs. The episode does not quantify the savings or explain their effect on Fox’s results, so this is an industry observation rather than a stock recommendation.

Hollywood Production and Studio Real Estate

  • Los Angeles shoot days peaked at about 40,000 in 2016, were around 37,000 in 2019 and 2022, fell to 25,000 in 2023, and then to 23,000 the following year. The speaker said they later fell to under 20,000.
  • The speaker described production moving to places such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Vancouver, Dublin, and New Jersey, often in response to tax incentives and labor costs.
  • Studio space was financed and built during the earlier production boom, but the speaker said current demand is weaker, creating issues for the studio real estate economy.
  • The downturn also affects local businesses, including restaurants that relied on spending from production crews and writers’ rooms.

Takeaways

  • The episode highlights a potential utilization risk for studio properties: capacity was built during a boom, while production activity has since fallen.
  • Investors assessing entertainment-related real estate can watch production levels, studio occupancy, and the durability of regional tax incentives. The transcript does not identify specific real estate securities or provide price targets.

Streaming Content Libraries

  • The speaker said individual established shows such as Family Guy and The Office can still command significant value.
  • However, older shows compete with one another for viewers, and the speaker suggested that some parts of content libraries may be becoming less valuable.
  • New productions also compete against a large supply of existing shows available through streaming.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests that library value may be uneven: well-known individual titles can remain valuable, while less distinctive catalog content may face greater competition.
  • For media investors, the useful question is not simply how large a company’s library is, but whether its titles continue to attract viewers. No specific licensing values or recommendations were given.

Generative AI and Entertainment

  • The speaker described AI as a threat to entertainment jobs, particularly production-side work, and said job losses could affect the wider Los Angeles economy.
  • They had not heard of a show written by AI, but said AI could already help with tasks such as outlining and might become capable of more.
  • The speaker characterized comedy as especially difficult for AI to produce, while also noting that comedy production is declining.
  • The discussion mentioned contractual protections for writers but did not assess how effective they will be.

Takeaways

  • AI is a potential labor and production-cost risk for the entertainment industry, but the episode does not establish that studios are currently replacing writers or production teams with AI.
  • The transcript names no AI company, stock, or specific investment opportunity. It supports monitoring how studios adopt AI and how labor agreements respond, rather than a particular investment recommendation.

Horror Films and Blumhouse

  • The speaker said horror is a particularly active genre because studios can make mid-budget films they believe have commercial potential.
  • Blumhouse was cited as an example of a low-cost production model, with Paranormal Activity given as an example of a film made on a very small budget that generated substantial returns.
  • The speaker contrasted horror’s perceived theatrical potential with comedy, which they said does not currently have the same perceived upside.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to horror as a comparatively attractive production genre in the speaker’s view, especially when budgets are controlled.
  • This is a general industry observation, not a forecast for any public company. Blumhouse was mentioned as a production company, but no standalone publicly traded stock or specific recommendation was identified.

Salesforce (CRM) and Schneider Electric (SU.PA)

  • Salesforce and Schneider Electric were named as sponsors in the episode’s opening advertisement.
  • Neither company was discussed in relation to its business performance, valuation, or investment outlook.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no investment insight about Salesforce or Schneider Electric beyond their appearance as sponsors.
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Episode Description
Is Hollywood just screwed? Writers are earning less. There are fewer shoots taking place in Los Angeles. And people are freaked out about AI. But according to Hayes Davenport, things were starting to feel bad in Hollywood before chatbots showed up to the scene. Davenport — who’s written for shows like Family Guy and is now creative director of LA Material and the co-host of the fantastic Hollywood Handbook podcast — joined us on stage at the Vermont to give us a history lesson on Hollywood's steady decline from the pandemic to now. We also get into the changing norms of AI use among entertainment professionals and why Davenport is jealous of New York right now. Read more: Jon Voight Spent Months Courting Trump on Tax Help for Hollywood Paramount to Settle Lawsuits, Paving Way for Warner Bros. Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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