This guy beat the S&P500 for 11 years doing (almost) nothing
This guy beat the S&P500 for 11 years doing (almost) nothing
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Use a patient, research-led approach: study a small number of businesses, document why they could succeed and fail, and wait for an attractive price rather than trading frequently.
  • Compare portfolio results with the S&P 500; the reported investor outperformed over 2014–2025, but past performance does not guarantee future returns.
  • Meta Platforms (META) is pursuing AI growth, but the discussion gave no price target or buy recommendation, and leadership in AI can shift quickly.
  • Treat the AI theme as promising but uncertain; the discussion offered no specific public-stock picks beyond META.
Detailed Analysis

Long-term public-stock investing (unnamed investor)

  • The investor reportedly earned an average annual return of 21.8%, compared with 13.5% for the S&P 500, from around 2014 to 2025. He reportedly beat the index in 11 of 12 years, underperforming only in 2022.
  • He held roughly 15 stocks, give or take five, and made an average of just 2.9 buy-or-sell decisions per year. In three of the past ten years, he made no trades; his busiest year had six decisions.
  • His process was to study a small number of businesses deeply, keep detailed notes, read annual reports, and wait for a price he considered attractive. He described studying one unnamed company for about six months before buying when it became cheap enough.
  • The hosts connected this approach to Warren Buffett’s description of his strategy as “lethargy bordering on sloth.”

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a patient, research-led approach: understand a business, document the investment case, and avoid trading simply to feel active.
  • Focus on opportunities within your circle of competence. The investor’s reported results are an individual example, not a guarantee that this process will outperform the market.
  • Consider writing down why an investment could fail before buying, as well as the reasons you believe it could succeed. This can help separate the quality of a decision from its eventual result.

S&P 500

  • The S&P 500 was used as the benchmark for the investor’s reported 13.5% annual return, versus his 21.8%.
  • The account reportedly underperformed the index in 2022, despite beating it in 11 of the 12 years discussed.

Takeaways

  • Use a broad-market index as a comparison when evaluating an active portfolio, rather than judging performance in isolation.
  • The transcript offers no specific recommendation to buy or sell the S&P 500.

Travel and apparel stocks (unnamed)

  • The investor reportedly owned a large travel-related stock and a popular clothing stock.
  • The clothing company was explicitly described as not Lululemon; the examples do not identify the actual holdings.

Takeaways

  • No company names, tickers, valuations, or buy recommendations were provided, so the examples are not enough to support an investment decision.
  • The broader lesson from the discussion is to research businesses you can understand and wait for an attractive opportunity rather than buying based on a sector label.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The hosts said Meta’s stock had responded positively to its AI-related decisions, including its push to build AI capabilities.
  • Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was described as having made a costly bet on virtual reality and the metaverse. The discussion cited roughly $60 billion invested in the effort and said it had not produced a product with popularity comparable to the iPhone.
  • The hosts portrayed Meta as having pivoted toward AI and highlighted its emphasis on a small, highly capable team. They also noted that the apparent leaders in AI can change quickly.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents Meta’s AI efforts positively, but also illustrates that major technology bets can consume substantial resources without delivering the hoped-for adoption.
  • Treat the AI leadership narrative as uncertain: the hosts specifically noted that the perceived leader can change within months. No price target or direct buy recommendation was given.

Scale AI (private company)

  • Scale AI was described as a data-services company that supplies and organizes data used to train AI models.
  • The transcript said Meta bought a large stake in Scale AI and brought in its founder, Alex Wang; the hosts cited a transaction value of roughly $15 billion, while qualifying the details as uncertain.

Takeaways

  • The conversation points to AI data infrastructure as an investment theme, but provides no financial details or direct investment recommendation for Scale AI.
  • Scale AI was discussed in connection with Meta’s AI strategy, not as a publicly traded stock.

Square / Block (XYZ)

  • Jack Dorsey was said to have written 140 reasons Square might fail before starting the company, using a pre-mortem to identify potential problems in advance.
  • Square is discussed as a company-building example, not as a stock investment.

Takeaways

  • The pre-mortem is a useful decision-making framework: list plausible failure points before committing resources, then consider how to address them.
  • The transcript gives no view on Block’s stock, valuation, or investment outlook.

Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (private company)

  • In a story the host said might be a “myth” or “fable,” Elon Musk was described as imagining what he would do if Tesla and SpaceX both failed and he lost his money.
  • The story places this hypothetical around 2008–2009, when both companies were described as being in serious difficulty, including after several failed rocket launches.

Takeaways

  • This was a motivational anecdote, not a current assessment of either company or an investment recommendation.
  • The transcript provides no current financial information, valuation, price target, or buy/sell view for Tesla or SpaceX.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality (VR)

  • AI was presented as a major strategic opportunity for Meta, with an emphasis on strong execution and a small, highly capable team.
  • VR and the metaverse were presented as a costly bet that had not yet produced the broad consumer success Meta sought.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights both the potential and uncertainty of investing around emerging technologies: a large strategic commitment does not guarantee consumer adoption or investment success.
  • No specific AI or VR securities, sector-level price targets, or investment timelines were recommended.
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Video Description
*Investing guide: 35+ money principles from investors/financial operators* https://clickhubspot.com/mojf Episode 873: Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) and Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) talk about an investor who makes 2.9 decisions a year, Zuck’s victory lap and what happened when Sam hired an executive coach. — Show Notes: (0:00) Zero Action Investing (7:55) Premortems (10:05) Zuck's Victory Lap (16:50) The Superpower of 100x Leaders (20:45) Sam Hires an Executive Coach (21:35) Identify the Game You're Playing (30:15) Keep Your Sails Up (33:45) Sam Attacks His Panic Attacks (38:55) Role Playing Hard Situations (41:00) How to Prep for the Scariest Moments — Check Out Sam's Stuff: • Hampton (joinhampton.com): My community for founders. Average member does $25m/year. Many of the guests are members. Get after it...apply: http://joinhampton.com/mfm — Check Out Shaan's Stuff: • Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com • Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents. • Mercury - Shaan uses Mercury across all of his companies. you can too: http://mercury.com/ Mercury is a fintech company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., Members FDIC • I run all my newsletters on Beehiiv and you should too + we're giving away $10k to our favorite newsletter, check it out: beehiiv.com/mfm-challenge My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano /
About My First Million
My First Million

My First Million

By @myfirstmillionpod

two guys, talking about business. we've done it (sold our companies), and now we talk about new ideas, opportunities, and investments. hosted by Shaan Puri & Sam Parr -- produced by Hubspot. sometimes we bring on guests ranging from billionaires to stay at home moms who've got side hustles that are bringing in $10k a month. we like to have fun, and talk about business stuff.