The AI Wealth Gap: Why 40x Deflation Changes Everything w/ Dave Blundin, Salim Ismail, Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross | EP #208
The AI Wealth Gap: Why 40x Deflation Changes Everything w/ Dave Blundin, Salim Ismail, Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross | EP #208
Podcast1 hr 49 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The massive energy demand from AI is creating a "guaranteed boom" for nuclear power, positioning companies like uranium supplier Cameco and financier Brookfield for significant growth. The market for GLP-1 drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is set to expand dramatically as prices fall and new medical uses are discovered. For a speculative play on urban air mobility, consider Archer Aviation (ACHR), which has a contract to provide air taxi services for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. As the cost of AI plummets, hardware enablers like Groq (GROQ) represent a key "picks and shovels" investment for powering the next wave of innovation. These opportunities are all driven by the powerful macro trend of AI cost deflation, which is reshaping major industries.

Detailed Analysis

Anthropic

  • The company is reportedly overtaking OpenAI in the enterprise Large Language Model (LLM) API market share.
  • It is trusted by enterprises, such as banks, for use with sensitive data due to its focus on reliability and security.
  • The company's strategy is heavily focused on code generation as the key path to more advanced AI.
  • Financial Projections: Anthropic is projecting $70 billion in revenue and $17 billion in cash flow by 2028, with an impressive 77% profit margin.
  • Market Perception: It is viewed as the "friendly little brother" to other AI giants like Google and OpenAI, allowing it to navigate the competitive landscape more easily. The CEO, Dario Amodei, is seen as having a strong strategy and grabbing the "high ground" on building AI that is "good for the world."

Takeaways

  • Anthropic represents a more focused, enterprise-oriented (B2B) investment thesis in the AI space compared to the consumer-focused (B2C) approach of OpenAI.
  • Its strong projected profit margins suggest a potentially more stable and financially sound business model in the medium term.
  • Investors looking for exposure to the corporate adoption of AI should consider Anthropic and its ecosystem as a key player with a strong competitive position in a lucrative market.

OpenAI

  • While a leader in the AI space, its market share in the enterprise API market is reportedly being overtaken by Anthropic.
  • The company's strategy appears more focused on the consumer market and directly competing with Google.
  • Financial Projections: OpenAI is projecting $100 billion in revenue but is expected to be unprofitable until 2029.
  • Business Model: The company is following a strategy similar to Amazon's early days, famously articulated by Jeff Bezos: prioritizing massive investment in growth (data centers, model development) and market capture over short-term profitability. Sam Altman is signaling to investors that he intends to "burn a trillion dollars" to build out infrastructure.

Takeaways

  • Investing in OpenAI (or its backers like Microsoft) is a bet on a high-growth, high-risk strategy aimed at achieving massive scale and market dominance.
  • The lack of profitability until 2029 is by design, not a sign of weakness. This is a long-term play on the belief that achieving a dominant position in AI will eventually lead to immense profits, similar to how Amazon "flipped the switch" to profitability after years of investment.

Investment Theme: AI Cost Deflation

  • A key insight from the podcast is the concept of 40x year-over-year hyper-deflation in the cost of AI intelligence, a figure attributed to Sam Altman.
  • This rate of improvement is 20 times faster than Moore's Law and is described as the "nuclear core" that will inevitably drive down the cost of everything else, from healthcare to food production.
  • The podcast hosts argue that betting against this trend is a "really, really risky position to take," as the improvements from back-to-back 40x gains will be "mind-blowing."

Takeaways

  • This is a powerful macro investment thesis. The rapid decrease in the cost of intelligence is one of the most significant economic forces at play today.
  • Investors should look for companies that are either enablers of this trend (AI model creators, hardware manufacturers) or beneficiaries (industries that can leverage cheap AI to drastically cut costs and innovate).
  • The deflationary effect will create massive business opportunities in solving the world's biggest problems, such as the cost of living.

Moonshot AI (China) & Groq (GROQ)

  • Moonshot AI, an Alibaba-backed company, has launched an ultra-low-cost, high-performance AI model called Kimi.
  • The Kimi models are noted to be top performers on industry benchmarks, nearly on par with Anthropic's models.
  • Cost Breakthrough: The training cost for their powerful model was only $4.6 million, a 30-40x reduction compared to what might be expected. This makes powerful AI accessible to a much wider range of companies and countries, reducing the reliance on US capital markets.
  • Hardware: These models run on Groq (GROQ) hardware, which is praised for its "blazing speeds" and "incredible performance."

Takeaways

  • The emergence of low-cost, high-performance models from China challenges the idea that only US tech giants with access to billions in capital can compete at the frontier of AI.
  • This trend democratizes AI development, potentially accelerating innovation globally.
  • Hardware companies like Groq (GROQ) that enable this efficiency are a critical part of the AI ecosystem and represent a key investment opportunity. They provide the "picks and shovels" for the AI gold rush.

Investment Theme: Energy for AI (Nuclear)

  • The buildout of AI data centers is creating an unprecedented demand for energy. The podcast cites Eric Schmidt's testimony that the US needs 92 gigawatts of new power by 2030.
  • A major partnership was announced between the US government, Brookfield, and Cameco for an $80 billion initiative to build new nuclear reactors.
  • The reactors are Westinghouse AP1000 models, which are modern, Generation 3+ designs considered fail-safe and suitable for placement near population centers.
  • The capital flowing into data center construction and power is projected to reach $1.2 trillion per year by 2030.

Takeaways

  • The demand for energy from AI is described as a "guaranteed boom." This makes the nuclear energy sector a compelling long-term investment.
  • Companies involved in the nuclear supply chain, from uranium suppliers like Cameco to reactor manufacturers like Westinghouse and financiers like Brookfield, are well-positioned to benefit.
  • The deal structure, which involves government-guaranteed loans, de-risks these large-scale projects for private investors, creating a "golden era" for capital deployment in the energy sector.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Elon Musk is rumored to be unveiling a new version of the Tesla Roadster that may have the ability to fly or hover.
  • The technology is expected to come from SpaceX in the form of cold gas thrusters, allowing the car to perform short "hops" or hover slightly above the ground.
  • This project is highlighted as an example of Elon Musk's brilliant strategy of replacing a traditional marketing budget with "inspirational and cool" science projects that generate massive public interest and attract top engineering talent.

Takeaways

  • While a "flying car" is exciting, the key investment insight is the reinforcement of Tesla's brand and innovation engine.
  • This strategy strengthens the company's moat by creating a powerful narrative, motivating its team, and attracting the best talent, all without spending on traditional advertising. It supports the bull case that Tesla is more than just a car company; it's an innovation platform.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • An anecdote was shared about individuals in Iran, where the local currency is failing.
  • In this environment, "everything's Bitcoin." People are reportedly spending up to a third of their income on an iPhone and data plan specifically to be able to manage their Bitcoin.
  • This highlights a real-world use case for Bitcoin as a store of value and a parallel financial system in countries experiencing severe economic instability and currency devaluation.

Takeaways

  • This story reinforces the core investment thesis for Bitcoin: it serves as a non-sovereign, censorship-resistant asset that provides a financial lifeline for people in countries with unreliable monetary systems.
  • This points to a long-term bullish driver for Bitcoin's adoption as a global store of value, independent of its price fluctuations as a speculative asset in developed markets.

Investment Theme: Longevity & Biotech

  • GLP-1 Drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy):
    • The US government is taking steps to slash the price of these drugs to as low as $149 per month.
    • New research shows they are not just for weight loss and diabetes, but can also cut the risk of repeat strokes by half.
    • The podcast hosts see this as the beginning of "universally basically abundant health span drugs."
  • CRISPR / Gene Editing:
    • New companies like Preventive (backed by Sam Altman) and Manhattan Genomics are being funded to develop CRISPR technology for editing human embryos.
    • This represents a paradigm shift from selecting the "best" embryo in IVF to actively altering an embryo's genetics.
    • This is currently banned in the US, so these companies are exploring operating in other countries like the UAE.

Takeaways

  • GLP-1s: The combination of falling prices and expanding medical applications suggests a massive market expansion for the pharmaceutical companies that produce these drugs (e.g., Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly). This is a strong bullish signal for the sector.
  • CRISPR: This is a high-risk, high-reward "frontier tech" investment. It faces significant ethical and regulatory hurdles, but the potential to eliminate genetic diseases before birth is revolutionary. Investing in this space is a venture-capital-style bet on a potentially world-changing future.

Urban Air Mobility (eVTOLs)

  • The podcast distinguishes between Tesla's potential "hopping" car and true "flying cars" or eVTOLs (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft.
  • Specific companies mentioned in the eVTOL space include Joby Aviation (JOBY), Archer Aviation (ACHR), and Ehang.
  • A key milestone mentioned is that Archer Aviation has a contract to provide air taxi services for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.

Takeaways

  • The eVTOL sector represents a pure-play investment in the future of urban transportation.
  • While still speculative, concrete milestones like the Archer Olympics contract provide tangible evidence of progress and commercialization.
  • These companies offer a direct way to invest in the "flying car" future that has long been a part of science fiction.
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Episode Description
If you want us to build a MOONSHOT Summit, email my team: moonshots@diamandis.com  Get access to metatrends 10+ years before anyone else - https://qr.diamandis.com/metatrends   Dave Blundin is the founder & GP of Link Ventures Salim Ismail is the founder of OpenExO Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross is a computer scientist and founder of Reified – My companies: Apply to Dave's and my new fund: https://qr.diamandis.com/linkventureslanding      Go to Blitzy to book a free demo and start building today: https://qr.diamandis.com/blitzy   _ Grab dinner with MOONSHOT listeners: ⁠https://moonshots.dnnr.io/⁠ Connect with Peter: X Instagram Connect with Dave: X LinkedIn Connect with Salim: X Join Salim's Workshop to build your ExO  Connect with Alex Website LinkedIn X Email Listen to MOONSHOTS: Apple YouTube This week's outro song: https://suno.com/song/c9e369d0-b182-4114-9dae-9b8861164c52  – *Recorded on November 15th, 2025 *The views expressed by me and all guests are personal opinions and do not constitute Financial, Medical, or Legal advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Moonshots with Peter Diamandis
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis

By PHD Ventures

Tracking the future of technology and how it impacts humanity. Named by Fortune as one of the “World’s 50 Greatest Leaders,” Peter H. Diamandis, MD, is a founder, investor, advisor, and best-selling author. Join Peter on his mission to uplift humanity through technology. Follow Peter on X - https://x.com/PeterDiamandis