keith is late again - 10/8/26 -23% since 7/1
keith is late again - 10/8/26 -23% since 7/1
YouTube2 hr 50 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Monitor Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) earnings for capital-spending signals that could support or weaken the SanDisk (SNDK), Micron (MU), and memory-and-storage trade; avoid oversized positions without a specific thesis.
  • Intel (INTC) was a tentative value-oriented long after significant weakness, but the discussion offered no clear catalyst or price target, so treat it as a higher-uncertainty idea.
  • The bearish ideas in Wolfspeed (WOLF) and Rigetti (RGTI) lacked price targets and detailed fundamental support; given volatility and limited evidence, do not treat them as established short recommendations.
  • After a drawdown, reduce position sizes, avoid trying to recover losses quickly, and define what would invalidate each trade before entering.
Detailed Analysis

SanDisk (SNDK)

  • Keith was long SanDisk, described as a preferred trade. The discussion tied the stock to demand for storage products from data centers.
  • The speakers identified upcoming earnings commentary from Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon as a potential catalyst, particularly their planned spending on products from SanDisk, Micron, and SK hynix.
  • Martin questioned whether Keith’s SanDisk position was too large and criticized the lack of a distinct thesis beyond general market exposure.

Takeaways

  • Watch major technology companies’ earnings and capital-spending commentary for clues about storage demand.
  • The discussion was not uniformly bullish: the speakers also warned against oversized positions and trades without a specific company-level thesis.

Seagate Technology (STX) and Micron Technology (MU)

  • Seagate was mentioned alongside SanDisk as part of the storage trade; the transcript refers to positions in both, but does not clearly establish who held each one.
  • Micron and SK hynix were discussed as beneficiaries of technology-company spending on memory and storage.
  • A Micron worker strike was a topic of discussion. Workers were reportedly seeking bonuses equivalent to five or six years of salary, and Micron’s bonus offer had been rejected.
  • Martin described pairs trading—trading the relative performance of stocks such as SanDisk and Micron—as a strategy he likes.

Takeaways

  • The memory and storage thesis depends partly on large technology companies’ spending plans, so earnings commentary may be important.
  • The Micron labor dispute is a company-specific uncertainty raised in the discussion; the speakers did not quantify its potential business impact.
  • Pairs trading was presented as a way to focus on relative stock performance, but it requires a well-supported view of how the companies compare.

Intel (INTC)

  • Martin said he liked the Intel trade, describing the company as having been “so beat up.” The conversation also raised, but did not resolve, whether tariffs might help Intel.
  • No price target or specific timeline was provided.

Takeaways

  • The stated bullish case was based on the stock’s weakness, but the transcript offered little detail about Intel’s business outlook.
  • Treat the tariff question as unresolved rather than as a confirmed catalyst.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • Martin said he was buying AMD, but was uncertain about the company’s GPU rollout.
  • Keith suggested that customers were buying AMD GPUs based on informal conversations. Martin dismissed this as unverified and urged him to check with people who could provide stronger evidence.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s key question was whether AMD’s GPU rollout is succeeding.
  • Validate claims about customer demand with reliable evidence; the speakers specifically criticized relying on unsupported anecdotes.

Wolfspeed (WOLF)

  • Martin urged Keith to look at Wolfspeed and later described it as a potential short, placing it among what he considered lower-quality semiconductor companies.
  • The stock was described as volatile during the discussion, rising sharply and then retreating. Martin also referred to company news, without specifying its details.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presented Wolfspeed as a bearish idea, but also showed how quickly its price could move around news.
  • Any short thesis would need to account for volatility and company-specific developments; no price target was given.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI)

  • Martin suggested shorting Rigetti, describing it as a quantum-computing stock and calling it a “scam.” He pointed to its chart as support for the idea, but did not provide a detailed fundamental analysis.

Takeaways

  • This was an explicitly bearish trading idea, not a fully developed investment case.
  • The transcript offered no valuation analysis or price target, so the short thesis should not be treated as substantiated by the discussion alone.

ASML (ASML)

  • Martin said he had shorted ASML slightly, but cautioned that he was not a fan of shorting very high-quality companies.
  • He acknowledged that high-quality stocks can fall, while arguing that he would rather look for weaker companies to short.

Takeaways

  • The sentiment was cautious and mixed: Martin had a small short position but expressed reservations about the approach.
  • The discussion highlighted the risk of betting against a company viewed as having a strong competitive position.

Moderna (MRNA)

  • Martin said he shorted Moderna at the market open and later confirmed that the position was still short.
  • He argued that many companies could now make the relevant products, but did not provide a detailed analysis of Moderna’s business or a price target.

Takeaways

  • The transcript expresses a bearish position, based partly on increased competition.
  • The discussion did not establish how much competition matters to Moderna’s outlook or identify a specific catalyst.

Abivax (ABVX)

  • Martin said he liked Abivax as a long-term position and described it as a good long that would require patience.
  • No price target or expected holding period was provided.

Takeaways

  • The sentiment was bullish, with patience emphasized.
  • The transcript did not provide supporting company-specific details, so it does not establish the basis or risks of the bullish view.

Precigen (PGEN)

  • Martin said he had been early to Precigen, without giving a current rating or explaining the original thesis.

Takeaways

  • This was a reference to a past investment view, not a specific current recommendation.

Revolution Medicines (RVMD)

  • Martin noted that RVMD had dropped about 9% and said the team was adding a position. The exact instrument or trade structure is unclear in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The discussion indicates interest in buying after a sharp decline, but does not explain the investment thesis.
  • Because the trade structure and rationale are unclear, the comment is not enough to assess whether the dip was viewed as an opportunity or a short-term trade.

Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)

  • Martin said EBS might be worth buying, while noting that a reported price increase appeared to have been announced earlier and might not be new information.

Takeaways

  • The mention was tentatively bullish, but the speakers questioned whether the apparent catalyst was already reflected in the news.
  • Verify the timing and significance of any price-change announcement before treating it as a fresh catalyst.

Biohaven (BHVN)

  • The speakers noted that Biohaven had announced a deal with $80 million upfront. They did not describe the deal terms or state a clear view on the stock.

Takeaways

  • The upfront payment is a material deal detail, but the transcript does not provide enough context to judge its effect on Biohaven’s valuation.

Liquidia (LQDA) and United Therapeutics (UTHR)

  • The speakers discussed a legal matter involving Liquidia and United Therapeutics. They said the companies had filed a stipulation, but the terms were unclear and the filing was described as sealed.
  • Liquidia reportedly rallied somewhat on the news. Martin speculated that the filing could reflect a settlement, but this was not confirmed.

Takeaways

  • The situation was framed as potentially positive for Liquidia, but the key terms were not available in the discussion.
  • Avoid treating settlement speculation as confirmed; the outcome and implications depend on what the stipulation actually says.

MongoDB (MDB)

  • Keith appeared to be trading MongoDB. Martin criticized the trade, urged him to exit, and said it might be a short, while also noting that Keith did not understand the company.
  • Martin expressed a broadly bearish view of software, arguing that AI could undermine the sector. The transcript did not provide a company-specific analysis of MongoDB.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was bearish on software and critical of trading a company without understanding its business.
  • The broad claim about AI and software was an opinion, not a detailed forecast; the transcript provides no price target or specific catalyst for MongoDB.

Qualcomm (QCOM), Broadcom (AVGO), and SMH

  • Martin suggested that Keith should consider trading Qualcomm and Broadcom, describing them as major semiconductor companies.
  • He also identified SMH, the semiconductor ETF, as a way to express broad semiconductor exposure, while warning that a portfolio of mostly semiconductor longs could amount to a sector bet rather than stock-specific analysis.

Takeaways

  • Consider whether a portfolio is intended to express a broad sector view or a company-specific thesis.
  • The speakers did not give price targets or explicit buy or sell calls for Qualcomm, Broadcom, or SMH.

Lumentum (LITE) and Optical Stocks

  • The opening discussion noted that optical stocks had seen considerable activity recently, with Lumentum given as an example.
  • No specific trade, valuation view, or catalyst was provided.

Takeaways

  • Optical stocks were identified as an active area to monitor, but the transcript does not establish a bullish or bearish view on Lumentum.

Viatris (VTRS) and an Unclear Acquisition Target

  • The speakers said that a company transcribed as “Asira” had been bought by Viatris. The target’s name is unclear in the transcript.
  • The acquisition was noted as market news, but no view was given on Viatris or the deal’s investment implications.

Takeaways

  • The transcript does not provide enough reliable detail about the acquired company or deal terms to support an investment conclusion.

Alphabet (Google), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN)

  • These companies were mentioned as sources of upcoming earnings commentary on technology spending, particularly capital expenditure related to memory and storage products.
  • Martin said that spending plans could matter for SanDisk, Micron, and SK hynix.

Takeaways

  • Their earnings commentary could provide useful information about demand for data-center and memory-related products.
  • The discussion did not make specific recommendations on these large-cap technology stocks.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir was mentioned at $204, but the transcript did not provide a clear view on the stock or explain the price reference.

Takeaways

  • No investment conclusion can be drawn from the price mention alone.

Trading and Risk Management

  • Martin advised Keith to trade smaller while recovering from a drawdown, rebuild confidence gradually, avoid forcing trades, and take small losses rather than letting losing positions grow.
  • He warned against trying to recover losses quickly with a large position and criticized holding multiple losing trades in the hope they would rebound.
  • He also questioned Keith’s concentration in semiconductor-related longs, suggesting that broad market or sector exposure might be easier to obtain through an index or ETF.

Takeaways

  • The clearest general lesson in the discussion was to manage position size and avoid turning a drawdown into a larger loss.
  • Before entering a trade, be clear about the thesis, the reason it might work, and what would invalidate it.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
let's get this $
About Martin Shkreli
Martin Shkreli

Martin Shkreli

By @realmartinshkreli

Investing, music, science, math, technology, programming, medicine and more!