Consider shorting Newegg (NEGG), as its recent growth is seen as a temporary boost with a price target of $10 within three months. Another high-conviction short is ATYR Pharma (ATYR), which is expected to go to zero soon. On the long side, Abivax (ABVX) is a top pick due to strong clinical data for what could become a multi-billion dollar drug. For a higher-risk, long-term play, Equillium, Inc. (EQ) was recently purchased with the potential for a 20x to 30x return if its drug pipeline succeeds. Finally, quantum computing company IonQ (IONQ) is viewed as an overhyped short opportunity.

Newegg (NEGG)

• The speaker is short Newegg.
• He believes the company's recent growth was a one-time tariff boost and not indicative of a fundamental turnaround from its "permanent slump."
• He notes that the company lost money in the first half of 2025.
• He mentions that while the second half of the year generally generates cash for the company, they are down to $59 million in cash.
• He states, "In three months, stock will be at ten," implying a price target of $10.
• He trimmed a small part of his short position when the stock went up but plans to reshort it if it goes higher.

Takeaways

• The speaker has a strong bearish conviction on Newegg, viewing its recent positive performance as temporary.
• Investors should be wary of the company's financial health, particularly its cash burn and first-half losses.
• The speaker has a specific price target of $10 within a three-month timeframe, suggesting he expects a significant decline.

Abivax (ABVX)

• The speaker is long Abivax and expresses strong bullish sentiment, stating, "I hope you're long with me."
• He mentions the stock price hitting $76 and almost $80, which he sees as a huge positive.
• He has high praise for the CEO, Mark, calling him "one of the few biotech CEOs I trust."
• He believes the company has great data and its drug is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug.
• He acknowledges the inherent risks in biotech, stating that "things do go wrong sometimes," such as manufacturing impurities or unexpected toxicity.
• He uses Abivax as an example of de-risking an investment. He preferred to wait for the positive data to come out and buy at a higher price (e.g., $50-$55) rather than take a "50-50 coin flip" on the clinical trial outcome before the data was released.

Takeaways

• This is a high-conviction bullish idea based on strong clinical data and trust in management.
• The speaker believes the drug has blockbuster potential (multi-billion dollar).
• While the primary clinical risk appears to be over, investors should still be aware of potential execution risks like manufacturing, which have derailed promising drugs in the past.

Equillium, Inc. (EQ)

• The speaker announced he just bought shares in EQ, making it a new position.
• He expresses a very bullish long-term thesis, stating: "if EQ works, I don't see why I wouldn't get the Ambevac price. 2030x." (Note: "Ambevac" is likely a misstatement of Abivax).
• This suggests he sees a potential for a 20x to 30x return on his investment if the company's drug is successful, arbitraging the valuation gap between EQ and what he perceives as a comparable company (Abivax).
• He acknowledges this is a long-term play: "It's a while from now, but that's the point... I'm willing to hold it. And I'm willing to buy more if it drops."

Takeaways

• EQ is presented as a high-risk, high-reward biotech investment.
• The investment thesis is based on the potential for its drug to succeed, leading to a massive re-rating of the stock to a valuation similar to Abivax.
• This is a long-term hold, and the speaker is prepared for volatility and plans to potentially add to the position over time or on weakness.

ATYR Pharma (ATYR)

• The speaker has an extremely bearish view on this stock.
• He makes a direct and stark prediction: "ATYR will be at zero soon."
• Later in the stream, he notes the stock is up 9% on the day and says the eventual fall will "taste even sweeter."

Takeaways

• This is a high-conviction short idea.
• The speaker expects the company to fail completely, with the stock price going to $0. No specific reasons were given in this transcript, only the strong negative sentiment.

IonQ (IONQ)

• The speaker is short IonQ and has been since around January.
• He is pleased with the stock's underperformance, stating "the fact IonQ is below 40 I take it as a win."
• He believes the hype from the 2024 run-up has peaked and that the stock has "done nothing" since January.
• He dismisses the company's prospects, stating, "I think it's a joke."

Takeaways

• The speaker is bearish on this quantum computing company, viewing it as overhyped.
• The short thesis has been in place for several months, and he remains confident in the position despite the stock's volatility.

Palantir (PLTR)

• The speaker is currently on the sidelines with Palantir.
• He states, "I'm not interested in Palantir yet."
• However, he indicates he would be a buyer at a lower price: "a little lower I would be."
• He uses it as an example of a company with one major asset (enterprise AI software), meaning its fortune is tied to a single theme.

Takeaways

• Palantir is a "watch list" stock for the speaker.
• The sentiment is neutral at the current price but would turn bullish on a significant price drop. Investors interested in the name might consider waiting for a better entry point.

Investment Themes & Other Mentions

Indian Stocks

• The speaker expresses interest in analyzing Indian stocks in the future, specifically mentioning Reliance and its subsidiary Reliance Jio.
• He notes the value of sell-side research for foreign stocks because it's harder to get a "feel" for them compared to American companies.
• Takeaway: India is a market of interest for future opportunities, but no specific, actionable ideas were presented beyond naming Reliance as a potential company to analyze.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin was mentioned only in passing as a topic for an upcoming specialty podcast ("about bitcoin and quantum").
• Takeaway: No investment thesis or opinion on Bitcoin was provided in this transcript.

CoreWeave (Private Company)

• A significant portion of the discussion revolved around CoreWeave, a private company that provides GPU infrastructure for AI.
• The speaker speculates humorously that major customers like Microsoft and OpenAI could delay paying their massive bills, creating a cash flow problem for CoreWeave. ("We'll pay in 2028," "Sue Microsoft, your only customer. See how that goes.")
• Takeaway: This is an important thematic risk for the AI sector. While CoreWeave is private, its financial health is a barometer for the AI supply chain. Any real trouble with its receivables could have knock-on effects for GPU suppliers like Nvidia (NVDA) and signal changing power dynamics between AI model creators and infrastructure providers.

Other Stock Mentions

• Intuit (INTU) & Workday (WDAY): Mentioned as big software names that were "taking it on the chin" (down 7% and 4% respectively). The speaker noted the Intuit drop was a "big huge name for us," implying a successful short position.
• Rocket Mortgage (RKT): Described as "highly risky," with the speaker noting he doesn't know what will happen to it.
• Cassava Sciences (SAVA): Mentioned in the context of a past successful investment pivot and also for hiring a commercial head before trial results, which the speaker finds humorous.