7/16/26 -4%
7/16/26 -4%
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Despite the current semiconductor sell-off, Micron (MU) and SK Hynix remain high-conviction long-term plays in the memory sector, though investors should wait for Google and Meta earnings to confirm continued AI infrastructure spending. Ultragenix (RARE) is highlighted as a top-tier long opportunity with the potential to double in value if its Sanfilippo drug is approved and Phase 3 Angelman Syndrome data succeeds later this year. PayPal (PYPL) is positioned as a strategic acquisition target, with expectations that the company will be sold to a larger bidder like SpaceX within the next 12 months. For speculative biotech traders, Tenax Therapeutics (TENX) offers a high-risk binary event ahead of its Levosimendan trial data expected by late August. Conversely, investors should consider shorting Oklo (OKLO) and Lucid (LCID), while avoiding Apple (AAPL) at its current valuation.

Detailed Analysis

Memory & Semiconductor Sector

The sector is currently experiencing a "brutal, vicious" sell-off. Key players like Micron (MU), SanDisk, and SK Hynix are seeing significant declines. Shkreli notes that while the "AI trade" might be unwinding, he remains long on memory, suggesting this could be a "last hurrah" or a pattern of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) that hasn't fully played out yet.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Down 4% despite reporting earnings. There is tension with ASML regarding rumored price increases.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 2%. Shkreli is watching to see if the "memory rally" can decouple from NVIDIA's performance.
  • Intel (INTC): Trading below $100 and looking "particularly weak."
  • Broadcom (AVGO) & AMD: Both down significantly (2-4%).

Takeaways

  • Monitor CapEx Guidance: The future of these stocks depends on upcoming quarterly calls from Google, Meta, and Amazon. If they signal a pause in compute build-out or CapEx spending, these stocks will plummet further.
  • Watch for a "Bottom": Shkreli believes the sell-off might be nearing an end but warns that Micron could still go lower before a true recovery.
  • Hynix vs. Micron: Shkreli prefers Hynix as a long-term play over Micron, though he dislikes the premium on the ADR (American Depositary Receipt).

PayPal (PYPL)

Shkreli predicts that PayPal will not remain an independent company within a year. He describes the company as "too weak" and suggests the board is ready to "call it quits" after years of mismanagement.

  • Potential Bidders: He expects a bidding war to emerge. Specifically, he mentions SpaceX (via Elon Musk) as a potential suitor to bring the company "full circle."

Takeaways

  • M&A Opportunity: Investors should watch for buyout rumors or official bids. Shkreli views the current price action as the start of a potential exit for the company.

Ultragenix (RARE)

A "legendary" rare disease company led by Emil Kakis. Shkreli views this as "one of the best longs ever" due to its stable portfolio and upcoming catalysts.

  • Key Drugs: Crysvita and Dojolvi provide a stable revenue base.
  • Catalysts:
    • GTX-102: Phase 3 data for Angelman Syndrome expected in the second half of the year.
    • GSD1 & Sanfilippo (MPS3A): Both have BLAs (Biologics License Applications) filed.
    • PDUFA Date: August 23, 2026, for a key drug.

Takeaways

  • Long-Term Growth: The company is on a "path to profitability" by 2027.
  • Valuation: Shkreli suggests the stock could double if the Sanfilippo drug is approved, with further upside from the Angelman Syndrome program.

Tenax Therapeutics (TENX)

A speculative biotech play with a major clinical trial readout approaching.

  • Context: The "Revive" study for Levosimendan is the primary focus.
  • Timeline: Data is expected by the end of August 2026.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk Binary Event: Shkreli is not currently long but is "looking to make a call" soon. This is a high-volatility event where the stock will likely move drastically based on the trial results.

Other Notable Mentions

Abbott Labs (ABT) & Dexcom (DXCOM)

  • Abbott reported a "monster quarter," leading to a massive rally (up 12%).
  • Dexcom rose 7% in sympathy, benefiting from Abbott’s strong performance in the medical device space.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Sentiment: Bullish but cautious regarding concentration.
  • Context: Lily is "all in on weight loss" (GLPs). Shkreli notes that while the cash flow is incredible, it creates a management challenge regarding how to diversify away from being a single-product company.

SpaceX

  • Sentiment: Neutral/Stable.
  • Context: Despite some "broken deal prices" in secondary markets, the stock is holding up relatively well at $136. Shkreli does not expect a major sell-off when lockups end.

Shorts & Avoids

  • Oklo (OKLO): Described as one of his "favorite shorts."
  • Bloom Energy (BE): Shkreli exited this position, describing the price action as "nasty" and "sickly."
  • Lucid (LCID): Suggests "shorting every pop" in the stock.
  • Apple (AAPL): Explicitly stated it is "not a good stock" at current levels.
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About Martin Shkreli
Martin Shkreli

Martin Shkreli

By @realmartinshkreli

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