A high-conviction bearish trade is on InMune Bio (INMB) ahead of its imminent Alzheimer's data, with puts at strikes like $5 or $2.50 being a way to position for an expected trial failure. Amgen (AMGN) is a contrarian buy opportunity, as the market over

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)

• The stock was down 34% due to a dispute with Novo Nordisk (NVO). The speaker believes Novo is upset that Hims has not stopped compounding weight-loss drugs, which violates the "spirit of their agreement."
• The speaker questions the initial excitement around the Hims/Novo deal, noting that if Hims is just acting as a pharmacy service, it's a low-margin, unexciting business.
• The core Hims business model is described as buying generic drugs and marking them up at high prices, which the speaker questions the scalability of across all drugs.
• The speaker emphasizes that Hims is a pharmacy/distributor, not a pharmaceutical manufacturer with intellectual property. He views drug distribution as a fundamentally low-margin business.
• He notes that Hims' market share is very small (estimated 0.5% now, maybe 1% by 2030) and doesn't pose a threat to major pharmaceutical companies.
• The speaker mentioned he was previously short HIMS and covered his position after it fell. He is currently not long the stock.

Takeaways

• Extreme Caution Warranted: The speaker advises letting the "dust settle" after the 30%+ drop. The fundamental business model and the implications of the Novo dispute are unclear.
• Avoid Rushing In: He sees no reason to focus on Hims right now, stating, "is it some like opportunity you're never gonna get again? It seems unlikely." The risk/reward is not clear.
• Understand the Business: Investors should be clear that Hims is primarily a distributor, which historically has low profit margins, despite their current strategy of high markups on specific generic drugs.

InMune Bio (INMB)

• This is the speaker's "main focus" and a stock where he has a big position.
• Clinical trial data for their Alzheimer's drug is expected to be released "any day now" (could be tonight, this week, or next week).
• The speaker holds a strong bearish view, stating, "I'm pretty sure it's gonna fail."
• He believes if the data is bad, the stock could drop to $0.50 or the company may even go bankrupt as they would need to raise more money.
• He mentions that investors can express a bearish view by buying puts, with various strike prices available ($2.50, $5, $7.50, $10).

Takeaways

• High-Risk Binary Event: The upcoming data release is a major catalyst that will cause extreme volatility. The outcome is binary: a huge gain or a catastrophic loss.
• Bearish Stance: The speaker is positioned for the trial to fail. Investors considering a position should be aware of this strong bearish sentiment from an informed party.
• Potential Short/Put Opportunity: For sophisticated investors comfortable with high risk, the speaker's analysis suggests that buying puts could be a way to profit from the expected negative outcome.

Amgen (AMGN)

• Amgen released data for its obesity drug, Meritide. The stock reacted very negatively, dropping significantly on the news.
• The speaker believes the market overreacted. He calls the data "good" and "pretty decent," noting that the drug appears more powerful than Zempic.
• He estimates the drug could generate $10 billion in revenue for Amgen.
• The speaker personally bought a little bit of Amgen on the dip.

Takeaways

• Contrarian Buy Opportunity: The sharp drop in Amgen's stock may be a buying opportunity, as the speaker believes the data was much better than the market's initial reaction suggests.
• Cautious Entry Strategy: He advises against "catching the falling knife." A prudent strategy would be to wait for the stock to stabilize and start to rally.
• Specific Price Level: The speaker mentions that if Amgen breaks out above $275, it could be a signal to start buying.

Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)

• Nektar has data coming out "tomorrow" for an atopic dermatitis (eczema) drug. The company has a long history of clinical failures.
• The stock is trading below its cash value, which makes it a tempting, high-risk speculation.
• The company scheduled a conference call to discuss the results. The speaker sees this as a mildly positive sign, suggesting the data is likely not a "complete flop."
• The speaker analyzes the risk/reward as highly asymmetric: a potential 10x return on clean, positive data versus a 30% decline on disappointing data.
• He discusses the competitive landscape (competing with effective drugs like Dupixent and Renvoke) as a major challenge for long-term success, but notes this may not matter for the short-term stock reaction.

Takeaways

• High-Risk, High-Reward Speculation: This is a classic biotech gamble. The company's poor track record is a major red flag, but its low valuation (below cash) provides a potential cushion and creates an attractive risk/reward profile for traders.
• Tempting but Risky: The speaker states, "if you put a gun to my head... I'd probably buy a little bit." This highlights the tempting nature of the trade, but it is not a safe bet.
• Short-Term Trade vs. Long-Term Investment: The analysis suggests this is a play on the immediate data reaction, not necessarily on the long-term viability of the drug, which faces a very crowded and competitive market.

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)

• This is the speaker's "biggest short" position.
• The company recently conducted a financing deal, selling shares at $14.25 when the stock had closed the prior Friday at roughly $19.
• The speaker views this highly dilutive financing at a steep discount as a very negative sign for the company and its stock.

Takeaways

• Bearish Signal: The financing deal is a major red flag. Companies typically only sell stock at such a large discount when they are in a difficult position and need to raise cash.
• Significant Dilution Risk: This action increases the number of shares outstanding, which dilutes the ownership stake of existing shareholders and can put significant downward pressure on the stock price.

Other Investment Mentions

Tesla (TSLA)

• Context: The stock was mentioned as being up 8% on "Robo taxi success."
• Takeaway: Positive developments and news related to Tesla's robotaxi ambitions are a significant positive catalyst for the stock price.

Meta Platforms (META)

• Context: The speaker expressed strong admiration for CEO Mark Zuckerberg, stating, "Zuck always wins in the end, baby."
• Takeaway: This is a strong bullish sentiment on the company's leadership and long-term prospects.

Compass Pathways (CMPS)

• Context: The stock dropped 50% despite meeting the primary endpoint of its clinical trial because "the street wanted more."
• Takeaway: This serves as a cautionary tale for biotech investors. Simply meeting a trial's goal does not guarantee a positive stock reaction; the quality of the data and market expectations are critical.

Defense Sector

• Context: In response to news of a military strike in the Middle East, the speaker explicitly advised against buying defense stocks.
• Takeaway: Do not automatically buy defense stocks on news of military conflict. The speaker calls this an "amateur" move and suggests it is not a profitable strategy.