Consider a high-risk short position on Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR), betting that its pivotal HOPE-III trial data, expected in the coming weeks, will disappoint. For the broader AI sector, consider taking profits on strong rallies rather than holding for the long term, as demonstrated by recent successful trades in NVDA and PLTR. Approach the Quantum Computing sector, including stocks like IONQ and RGTI, with extreme caution as it remains highly speculative and volatile. As a core risk management principle, avoid adding capital to losing positions and be disciplined about selling underperformers. Unless you are an expert, avoid using complex instruments like options, which are considered toxic for most investors.

Palantir (PLTR)

• The speaker had a bullish short-term view and recently executed a large, successful trade on Palantir.
• He bought "huge amounts of call options" on the stock, which worked out "pretty well."
• The trade was timed a "day ahead of the market" before a significant rally in AI stocks.
• He has since sold the Palantir exposure after the stock rallied back, noting it was miserable watching it deteriorate before the jump.
• He mentions the stock is "almost 200 again" (Note: This seems to be a slip of the tongue, as Palantir's price is much lower. He likely meant NVIDIA, which he discusses in the same context).
• The speaker believes corporate demand is "extremely high" and conditions are "improving and accelerating," which supported his bullish thesis on the trade.

Takeaways

• This was a short-term tactical trade using options to capitalize on anticipated positive momentum in the AI sector, not a long-term investment.
• The speaker successfully timed a sector-wide rally and took profits after the sharp upward move. This highlights a strategy of capturing short-term gains rather than holding for the long run.
• The underlying bullish thesis was based on strong corporate demand for AI, suggesting the sector may still have positive momentum.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Similar to Palantir, the speaker had a bullish short-term view and made a successful trade.
• He bought "huge amounts of call options" alongside his Palantir trade.
• He has since sold most or all of his exposure to NVIDIA after the rally.
• He notes the stock was "rallying hard up 6%, almost at $200" during the stream.
• The trade was part of a broader bet on a jump in AI stocks.

Takeaways

• This was another successful, short-term tactical trade on a leading AI company.
• The strategy involved using options to profit from a predicted market move and then exiting the position to lock in gains.
• Investors can see this as an example of trading around key market themes (like AI) and the importance of having an exit strategy.

Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR)

• The speaker has a strong bearish conviction and is short the stock.
• He refers to the company as "pretty big scumbags."
• He predicted they would "punt their due date" for their clinical trial data readout.
• The company's earnings call confirmed a slight delay, with top-line results for the HOPE-III trial now expected in the "coming weeks." The speaker interprets this as a likely sign of a "miss."
• From the earnings release, he notes their cash position is $99 million, which is "a little less than we thought," and points out the "fat amount of expense" in R&D.
• The earnings call detailed that the pivotal HOPE-III study is for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and that the FDA will exercise "regulatory flexibility" in reviewing the data, which could be important if the primary endpoint is missed but the cardiac endpoint is hit.

Takeaways

• This is a high-risk, event-driven short trade. The speaker is betting that the upcoming HOPE-III clinical trial data will be negative, causing the stock to drop.
• The announced delay in the data release, even if slight, reinforces the speaker's bearish thesis.
• Investors should be aware of the binary nature of this event. Positive data could cause a significant price increase (a "short squeeze"), while negative data would align with the speaker's position. The company's conference call provides the bull case, which should be weighed against the speaker's skepticism.

Quantum Computing Sector (IONQ, RGTI, BTQ)

• The speaker is "still in Quantum" but has had to adjust his portfolio, indicating a volatile and challenging sector.
• He mentions that IonQ (IONQ) was "underwater all day" and later "down 7%."
• He notes the broader sector is shaky, with "six out of seven quantum stocks" being down on the day.
• He seems relieved that BTQ is "somehow fucking hanging in there" while his portfolio is busy with other trades.
• He analyzes Rigetti's (RGTI) earnings:
  • Revenue was $0.9 million.
  • They have plenty of cash for now due to a low burn rate ($15-25 million per quarter) relative to their cash position. However, he believes they will need to raise more money to compete in the long run.
  • Rigetti announced a new roadmap: a 100-qubit chiplet by the end of 2025 and a 1,000-qubit chip by the end of 2027.

Takeaways

• The quantum computing sector is presented as highly speculative and volatile. The speaker has exposure but acknowledges the difficulty in navigating it.
• For Rigetti (RGTI), the low cash burn is a positive sign of operational discipline, but the need for future financing is a risk. The technology roadmap provides potential long-term catalysts, but these are years away and carry significant execution risk.
• This sector is for investors with a very high risk tolerance and a long-term perspective, as the technology and companies are still in their early stages.

IFRX (InflaRx)

• The speaker has a strong bearish sentiment on this stock, which he currently owns.
• He refers to the position as "shit IFRX" and "dog poopoo."
• He is down 20% or more on the position and expresses regret over the trade.
• He is not adding to the position as it goes down, consistent with his philosophy of not averaging down on losers.

Takeaways

• This serves as a case study in the speaker's investment philosophy: cut your losers or let them go. He is not adding more capital to a losing trade.
• For investors, this is a reminder of the importance of managing losing positions and avoiding the emotional trap of "averaging down" in the hope of breaking even.

CoreWeave (Private Company)

• The speaker provides a detailed financial analysis of CoreWeave, a private company that provides GPU cloud infrastructure, making it a key player in the AI ecosystem.
• Financials:
  • Revenue: $1.364 billion
  • EBITDA: $638 million
  • He notes a "holy shnikes" level of interest expense, which is a significant cost.
  • The business model is extremely capital-intensive, requiring massive spending on new chips (CapEx).
• Analysis:
  • He calculates that if you exclude the cost of buying new chips, the business is very profitable with a 64% gross margin.
  • The core investment question is "how long you think those chips are going to be valuable."
  • He concludes it's "not wildly overvalued" but is a "hard company to understand" because its success depends on continued massive growth to justify the high costs and debt.

Takeaways

• While CoreWeave is private, this analysis provides a valuable proxy for understanding the AI infrastructure business model.
• Companies in this space (including public data center REITs and cloud providers) require enormous capital investment in hardware (like NVIDIA GPUs).
• Investors in this sector should focus on revenue growth, profit margins (excluding hardware depreciation), and the company's ability to manage debt. The technological obsolescence of expensive chips is a major risk factor.

General Investment Philosophy & Trading Advice

• On Options: The speaker states that "options are pretty toxic" and should be avoided "unless you really know what you're doing." He uses them for specific, high-conviction trades but advises against them for most people.
• On Managing Losers: He strongly advises against adding to losing positions. His philosophy is: "If you have a loser, just leave it. Let it go. Sell it." He notes that "the best traders sell their losers right away."
• On Inactivity: He emphasizes that "one of the hardest things in investing is sitting on your hands and not doing anything." He warns against the constant temptation to trade.
• On Starting Out: For those with small capital, his advice is not to trade your own money. Instead, "Work for a trader first" to learn the business without risking your own funds.