It's worse than you think w/ Tulip King, Eli Ben-Sasson and Saeed Badreg
It's worse than you think w/ Tulip King, Eli Ben-Sasson and Saeed Badreg
YouTube3 hr 40 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat Bitcoin (BTC) cautiously near support: consider reducing risk rather than opening a short, and monitor the $70,000 area as a possible pullback—not a firm target.
  • For a relative-value trade, consider long BTC / short memory stocks, recognizing it is a speculative view and not a guaranteed hedge.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a higher-risk growth idea tied to sustained on-chain trading and market share; verify current revenue and competition before investing.
  • Zcash (ZEC) offers a long-term privacy and post-quantum-security thesis, but adoption is uncertain and the cited trillion-dollar valuation was speculation, not a target.
  • Avoid treating Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL) activity as automatic token value: track revenue, fees, and how each token captures ecosystem growth.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The market outlook was described as bearish in the near term, with Bitcoin near an important support area. The speaker cautioned that shorting here could mean selling into support.
  • The speaker did not expect Bitcoin to revisit the summer lows, but thought a pullback to a higher low was possible. A move toward the $70,000 range was raised as a possibility, not a firm target.
  • One proposed relative-value trade was long Bitcoin and short memory stocks, based on the view that Bitcoin could outperform that sector.
  • Tulip King named Bitcoin among his largest positions, roughly alongside HYPE and ZEC.

Takeaways

  • If following the discussion, distinguish between reducing risk and opening a short: the speaker favored considering profit-taking or cutting positions over casually shorting near support.
  • The Bitcoin-versus-memory trade was presented as a relative-performance idea, not a guaranteed way to profit.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • ETH was described as being near a key support area, alongside Bitcoin and Solana.
  • Tulip King argued that ETH’s investment case is weakened if its value is expected to come from being “money” but stablecoins are increasingly used for trading pairs and collateral instead.
  • He was bearish on ETH and saw the possibility of value shifting toward protocols that generate revenue. Another speaker said he understood parts of that thesis, while noting that many holders may still value ETH for its broader ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights two different ways to assess ETH: its monetary and ecosystem role, versus its direct use and value capture. Investors may want to decide which thesis they actually hold.
  • The bearish view was a participant’s opinion, not a stated price target or consensus forecast.

Solana (SOL)

  • SOL was described as being near a key support area. Ansem said he liked Solana and discussed it as a platform that could benefit from on-chain equities and other financial activity.
  • Tulip King was bearish on SOL relative to revenue-generating applications. He argued that stablecoins are widely used as collateral and trading pairs, which may limit how much value the SOL token captures as the ecosystem grows.
  • He also noted a risk to the “block space is scarce” thesis: Solana can add capacity, while competing chains may constrain how much fees can rise.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents a clear disagreement: Solana’s growing ecosystem could support its value, but activity on the network does not automatically translate into equivalent value for SOL holders.
  • Consider monitoring fee generation, token use in trading pairs and collateral, and competition from other networks rather than relying on activity growth alone.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • Eli Ben-Sasson, a Zcash co-founder, described demand for digital money with privacy and post-quantum security as an important long-term theme.
  • Tulip King was strongly bullish on Zcash and said he believed it could eventually reach a trillion-dollar valuation, without giving a timeline. He also listed ZEC among his largest positions.
  • The guests discussed Zcash’s long period of limited attention before renewed interest, emphasizing that adoption of new forms of money can take time.

Takeaways

  • The investment case discussed is based on demand for private digital money and potential concerns about future cryptographic threats; neither adoption nor a trillion-dollar valuation is assured.
  • Treat the stated valuation as Tulip King’s opinion, not a price target or timeframe.

Pearl (AI-related proof-of-work project)

  • Tulip King described Pearl as an alternative-money thesis tied to Bitcoin’s security-budget concerns. He said the project replaces Bitcoin’s SHA-256 mining computation with matrix multiplication, linking its mining process to AI-related computing.
  • He named Pearl as an early position that had grown to become a meaningful one, but did not give a ticker or specific valuation.

Takeaways

  • The thesis depends on whether the project can connect mining economics to real AI-computing demand while retaining the monetary characteristics investors value.
  • The discussion did not establish how those economics work in practice or provide a timeline, so the idea warrants independent verification.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Tulip King viewed Hyperliquid as a strong example of a crypto application that makes money and said it was among his largest positions.
  • He described HYPE as a possible “100 bagger” in a scenario where on-chain trading grows dramatically, while also acknowledging that competing derivatives platforms could gain share.
  • The transcript also discussed the broader risk that crypto investors may overtrade or make decisions on overly short timeframes.

Takeaways

  • The bullish thesis rests on sustained growth in trading activity and the protocol’s ability to retain users and market share—not simply on overall crypto growth.
  • The “100 bagger” comment was a speculative opinion, not a stated target or guaranteed return.

Derive (options trading)

  • Tulip King was bullish on Derive, saying options markets are underdeveloped relative to perpetual futures and that Derive had about 90% share of options premiums at the time of the discussion.
  • He argued that options can offer different risk and payoff profiles from perpetual futures, including ways to trade volatility rather than only the direction of an asset.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity discussed is growth in on-chain options trading, but the claim about market share is time-sensitive and should be checked against current data.
  • Options can be complex and can lose value; the transcript did not give a specific trade or recommendation.

GMX

  • Tulip King said GMX appeared to trade at roughly 1.2 times revenue on DeFiLlama and had been growing in recent months.
  • He presented it as an example of how on-chain research might identify potentially overlooked projects, while explicitly saying the example was not a buy recommendation.

Takeaways

  • Revenue multiples can be a starting point for research, but they do not establish that a project is undervalued or that its revenue will continue growing.
  • Verify current revenue, token value capture, and competitive position before drawing conclusions.

Paper Trade (token name not specified)

  • Ansem spoke positively about Paper Trade, a synthetic perpetuals platform built on Hyperliquid that uses Bitcoin and ETH prices. The platform was described as offering up to 1,000x leverage.
  • The speakers said the platform changed its token distribution: supply was no longer capped as previously expected, and the token would remain non-transferable for longer. Users could stake it to receive a share of platform revenue.
  • Early farmers were unhappy about the change, while the speakers argued that the revised distribution could better reward active traders.

Takeaways

  • The platform’s revenue-sharing feature and trading activity were presented as potential positives, but the token’s distribution and transferability terms create material uncertainty.
  • 1,000x leverage carries extreme risk; the discussion is not a recommendation to use it.

Pump.fun

  • The speakers argued that Pump.fun is a launchpad and cannot make individual coins rise in price; traders’ buying and selling determine that.
  • They noted that Pump.fun had reportedly generated about $1 million a day during a weak market period and argued that its core users continued using the platform even when coins were not making large runs.
  • Some community criticism was described as focused on the lack of an airdrop, despite the platform’s other reward programs.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports evaluating Pump.fun as a business and launchpad separately from the performance of coins launched on it.
  • Platform activity or revenue does not guarantee that individual tokens will perform well or that users will profit.

Venice AI (VVV)

  • VVV was mentioned in a sponsor update as one of the few assets that had been performing strongly in the preceding weeks.
  • No valuation, price target, or investment thesis was provided.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers only a brief performance mention, not enough information to form an investment view. Further research would be needed on the project, token economics, and current price.

Tokenized equities and real-world assets

  • Sunrise’s CEO argued that tokenized equities and other real-world assets could open access to a much larger pool of financial assets. He cited a roughly $160 trillion global asset market and said capturing even 1% would represent more than $1 trillion in value.
  • He described tokenized stocks as a way to enable broader access and more continuous trading, and argued that tokenized assets could become programmable building blocks for on-chain finance.
  • The discussion emphasized that success depends on more than issuing tokens: it also requires market makers, mint-and-redeem mechanisms, integrations, and broad distribution.
  • The CEO said tokenized-equity activity had grown substantially from a small base, but gave no specific forecast for Sunrise or its token.

Takeaways

  • Tokenized equities are a potentially large sector opportunity, but the transcript does not establish which provider will win or whether a particular token will capture the value.
  • For projects in this area, examine underlying asset rights, liquidity, redemption arrangements, market access, and regulatory and operational dependencies.

Sunrise / Wormhole Labs

  • Sunrise’s CEO said the project focuses on bringing tokenized equities to Solana and making them usable across on-chain markets.
  • He described the project as relying on market-maker relationships, mint-and-redeem infrastructure, and integrations with wallets, exchanges, and DeFi applications.
  • No specific investment recommendation, token price, or target for Sunrise was given.

Takeaways

  • Sunrise is one project tied to the broader tokenized-equities theme, but its prospects depend on building liquidity and distribution as well as issuing assets.
  • The transcript did not provide enough information to assess its token economics or competitive position.

Starknet (STRK) and Supervega

  • Eli Ben-Sasson said StarkWare was exploring a shift for Starknet from an Ethereum L2 toward an L1, citing concern that Ethereum might not migrate quickly enough to post-quantum security.
  • He described Starknet’s technology as focused on zero-knowledge proofs, scaling, privacy, and security. He also said the team was developing applications, including Supervega, a platform for trading options on assets such as BTC, ZEC, and STRK.
  • The proposed “quantum tsunami” was presented as a risk that could arrive sooner than expected, with the next two years described as a period of particular concern. No specific probability was given.

Takeaways

  • Starknet’s investment case in the discussion is tied to post-quantum security, privacy, and scaling, but its strategic shift and adoption plans were still developing.
  • The quantum threat was discussed as a risk scenario, not a confirmed near-term event. STRK was mentioned as an asset available to trade on Supervega, not as a specific buy recommendation.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Tulip King said Eli Lilly was his largest position by net worth. He described it as a way to gain exposure outside the AI-heavy equity theme, but did not provide a detailed thesis or target.
  • Other speakers separately expressed concern that the broader AI-related equity complex may be late in its cycle.

Takeaways

  • The transcript gives only a personal-position disclosure, not a company-specific investment argument. Do not treat the position as a recommendation without further research.

Micron, semiconductors, and memory stocks

  • Ansem said he had been wrong about memory stocks making new highs and about semiconductors continuing to rally; he described their subsequent retracement as aggressive.
  • He cited Micron’s strong quarterly results as an example of good news that failed to push the stock to a new high.
  • He thought equities could be near the tail end of a cycle, with investors taking profits after large gains, and suggested Bitcoin might outperform memory stocks.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautious on memory and semiconductor stocks despite strong results, highlighting the risk that high expectations may already be reflected in prices.
  • The proposed long-Bitcoin/short-memory-stocks trade is a relative-value view, not a standalone recommendation on Micron or the semiconductor sector.

AI-related equities and technology

  • The speakers raised concern that AI is improving quickly and uncovering software vulnerabilities, which could disrupt companies’ existing processes.
  • Tulip King said he was bearish on much of the AI-stock complex and was not interested in buying dips, while allowing that government intervention or major technical advances could change the picture.
  • Micron, semiconductors, and memory stocks were discussed in this context. The speakers also mentioned OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, Nvidia, and Tesla as examples of AI or technology companies and related market narratives, not as specific recommendations.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to two competing forces: AI may create major long-term opportunities, but high expectations, disruption, and market-cycle risks could weigh on stock prices.
  • No specific AI-stock price targets or timelines were given.

Oil and macroeconomic risks

  • Ansem cited ongoing war-related concerns, rising oil prices, and high interest rates as risks to markets.
  • He also warned that major equities had risen substantially since late 2022 and 2023, leaving investors with unrealized gains that could contribute to profit-taking.

Takeaways

  • The transcript suggests monitoring oil, interest rates, geopolitical developments, and equity-market positioning as potential pressures on risk assets.
  • No specific oil price target or forecast was provided.
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