SpaceX (SPXC) is currently trading at a risky all-time low of $111 per share, down over 50% since its IPO, while burning billions with high valuations around 80 times sales. Exercise extreme caution regarding near-term volatility because a massive share unlock on August 6th and 7th will release up to 60% of the remaining stock supply and likely drive prices lower. Long-term believers should wait patiently for the market to establish a stable price floor rather than buying immediately. Despite high short-term risks, the company boasts massive high-conviction potential driven by rapid Starship scaling, Starlink expansion, and a lucrative AI cloud compute merger with xAI. Consider SPXC strictly as a volatile, long-term moonshot investment and monitor the upcoming quarterly earnings report closely before establishing a position.

SpaceX (SPXC)

• SpaceX stock has cratered more than 50% from its all-time high since its IPO six weeks prior to the recording, reaching a new all-time low of $107 per share (trading around $111 during the recording).
• Private bank valuations show a massive divergence, ranging from Morningstar's target of $63 to Morgan Stanley's bull case of $600.
• The company trades at an astronomical multiple of about 80 times trailing sales.
• Financial statements from 2025 show a net loss of $4.5 billion.
• Only 4% of the share supply was initially made available at the IPO, creating a very low float.
• A massive share unlock is approaching on August 6th/7th (two days after their first quarterly report), with 56% to 60% of the remaining stock supply aiming to be unlocked by the end of the year.
• The bear case focuses on massive overvaluation, speculative future promises, high cash burn, and the heavy downward pressure expected from upcoming share supply unlocks.
• The bull case centers on four key pillars:
  • Starship: The Mars and lunar rocket recently completed its 16th attempt/Flight 13 successfully, launching active Starlink V3 satellites into orbit and landing softly on the ocean without exploding. Starship production is rapid, with ships 41 through 48 built simultaneously at a rate of one every 14 days. COO Gwen Shotwell projects launching one Starship per month in 2026, and 100 to 400 Starships in 2027.
  • Starlink: The satellite internet network is scaling rapidly, with version 3 satellites offering 20 times the broadband connectivity of previous generations and version 5 terminals being 60% more efficient.
  • AI Opportunity: SpaceX merged with xAI pre-IPO, owning the Grok models (including Grok 4.5 and upcoming Grok 5). SpaceX has built massive GPU data centers (like Colossus) at record speed and acts as a neocloud, selling $60 billion in compute over 9 to 12 months, including a $1.25 billion per month contract with Anthropic.
  • Advanced Manufacturing: The company possesses unmatched capabilities in physical manufacturing and supply chain execution, moving atoms efficiently to build hard infrastructure domestically.
• The podcast hosts compare SpaceX's current trajectory to Meta's post-IPO dip in 2012 and Tesla's historical status as the most shorted stock before a 10x meteoric rise.

Takeaways

• SpaceX is classified as a long-term, high-conviction moonshot investment rather than a short-term trade, and short-term volatility is expected to continue.
• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming quarterly earnings report and the massive share supply unlock starting around August 6th or 7th, as these events will heavily influence near-term price discovery.
• Potential investors who are skeptical of the current high valuation or concerned about supply locks may choose to wait patiently for the market to find a stable price floor before establishing a position.