Accumulate SpaceX shares on short-term dips toward $115 caused by the recent $100 billion share unlock event, treating it as a multi-year accumulation opportunity similar to early Tesla cycles. Long-term investors should capitalize on Starlink's rapid subscriber growth to 12 million users while monitoring aggressive capital expenditures projected for AI infrastructure. Use the near-term volatility from high spending and lock-up expirations to build a position ahead of management's ambitious $100 billion ARR target by the end of 2026. Concurrently, buy NVIDIA ( NVDA ) to capture the massive demand catalyst driven by SpaceX's commitment to exclusive hardware architecture and massive GPU fleet expansions. Expect this data center build-out to generate significant upside for NVIDIA ( NVDA ), supported by strong revenue generation models of $40 to $50 billion annually per gigawatt of energy deployed.

SpaceX (Unlisted / Privately Traced, Mentions of Stock Ticker/Shares)

• SpaceX reported a strong first earnings report, with revenue up 92% year-on-year to $7.81 billion, beating the estimated $6.93 billion.
• Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million, adding 1.7 million users in the latest quarter alone, though revenue per user fell 22% due to expansion into cheaper international markets.
• Net income showed a loss of half a billion dollars, which was an improvement over expected $2 billion losses. Earnings per share came in at $0.09 versus expectations of a 26-cent loss.
• Capital expenditures (CapEx) came in at just under $18.5 billion (39% higher than expected), meaning they spent $2.35 for every dollar earned, driven heavily by data center infrastructure.
• The company is guiding toward $100 billion ARR by the end of 2026 and expects to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2030.
• SpaceX boasts an AI compute cloud business with a major partnership with NVIDIA, holding a massive GPU footprint and targeting 15 to 20 gigawatts of power by the end of the decade.
• Short-term bearish pressure includes a massive share unlock event where $100 billion worth of SpaceX stock (about 911 million shares) goes live, representing 25% to 36% of the entire share supply.
• The stock traded down about 9% to $115 around the time of the earnings release and unlocks.
• Key risks mentioned include "key man risk" regarding Elon Musk, highly optimistic timelines, high CapEx with no guidance provided for next year, and potential short-term volatility from share lock-up expirations.

Takeaways

• Long-term investors may view short-term dips driven by share unlocks and high CapEx spending as potential accumulation opportunities, drawing parallels to Tesla's historical multi-year short squeezes.
• Investors with a low time preference should weigh the ambitious, high-risk vision (such as space data centers and massive compute scaling) against current foundational revenue drivers like Starlink's rapid subscriber growth and the high return on invested capital from terrestrial data centers.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• SpaceX committed to purchasing massive amounts of hardware and building exclusively on NVIDIA architecture, citing the Vera Rubin architecture as the best AI computer.
• SpaceX plans to double its existing GPU fleet by the end of next year, which could translate to $100 billion to $200 billion in revenue for NVIDIA depending on the gigawatt scale achieved.
• NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's rule of thumb guides for $40 to $50 billion of annual revenue per gigawatt of energy deployed, meaning large-scale data center deployment by partners like SpaceX serves as a massive revenue catalyst for NVIDIA.

Takeaways

• Massive data center and compute build-outs by high-capital entities like SpaceX provide a strong fundamental tailwind for NVIDIA's hardware ecosystem and reinforce the demand side of the AI infrastructure trade.