Why This Early Solana Investor Is Still All In | Viktor Fischer
Why This Early Solana Investor Is Still All In | Viktor Fischer
211 days agoLightspeedBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 8 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Solana (SOL) as a core holding, viewed as a high-growth, yield-generating asset with a short-term price target of $900 and a mid-term 2030 target of $2,000. For simpler exposure to Solana's yield, investigate publicly traded Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) like Ford (FORD) and STSS, with early 2026 being a key catalyst period. Avoid investing in new Layer 1 blockchains, as the opportunity has shifted to applications built on established networks. As a "picks and shovels" play on network growth, consider the infrastructure project Double Zero (00). A key catalyst for Solana is the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and the onboarding of traditional finance.

Detailed Analysis

Solana (SOL)

  • The guest, Viktor Fischer of Rockaway X, is an early investor in Solana, having invested when the price was $0.04 and $0.20.
  • The core investment thesis is that Solana is a high-growth, yield-generating asset, rather than a store of value like Bitcoin.
    • It's described as being 5 times cheaper than Ethereum but with 30 times more transactions and users.
    • It offers a 7% staking yield, which can be increased to 10-12% or more with DeFi strategies.
  • A key narrative for TradFi investors is that Solana is a "global Nasdaq" that allows for instant, low-cost investment anywhere in the world.
  • The guest believes the macro environment of negative real interest rates will push investors toward alternative assets like Solana that offer high growth and yield.
  • Adding Solana to a traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) was shown to improve returns and the Sharpe ratio (a measure of risk-adjusted return).

Price Targets

The guest provided specific price targets for SOL, based on their analysis presented at Ysolana.com:

  • $900 (Short-term): This target is based on Solana reaching Ethereum's current market capitalization.
  • $2,000 (Mid-term): This target is based on two models for the year 2030:
    • Top-down model: Assumes Solana captures a 10% share of a projected $20-25 trillion global tokenized asset market.
    • Bottom-up model: Based on projected annual protocol revenue (fees, MEV) of $30-50 billion and applying a valuation multiple comparable to high-growth software companies.
  • $6,000 (Long-term): Mentioned as a long-term target without detailed explanation in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case for Solana is centered on its utility, growth, and ability to generate yield, which may be attractive in an inflationary environment where traditional savings lose value.
  • A major catalyst for Solana's growth is the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and the onboarding of traditional finance (TradFi) investors.
  • Investors should monitor Solana's ability to attract institutional capital and close the Total Value Locked (TVL) gap with Ethereum. The guest believes Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) will be key to this.
  • Risk Factor: Solana's ecosystem is still perceived as complex for traditional investors. The development of user-friendly applications (like Lulo or Galaxy One) is crucial for wider adoption.

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

  • DATs are presented as a key vehicle for traditional finance (TradFi) investors to gain exposure to Solana and its DeFi ecosystem without the complexity of using wallets and protocols directly.
  • While Crypto Twitter sentiment suggests the "DAT meta is over," the guest argues their real impact has not been seen yet.
  • The guest believes 2026 will be a big year for DATs.
    • This is because the Q4 2025 financial reports (released in Feb 2026) will be the first to showcase a full quarter of performance.
    • These reports are expected to highlight that Solana DATs can generate significantly higher yields than their Ethereum counterparts, which could attract a wave of new capital.
  • DATs are expected to play a major role in the ecosystem by allocating capital into Solana DeFi protocols, potentially acquiring companies, and helping to close the TVL gap with Ethereum.

Takeaways

  • Investors interested in a simpler way to access Solana's yield potential could consider looking into publicly traded Solana DATs like Ford (FORD), STSS, and Solmate.
  • The performance and yield reported by these DATs in early 2026 could be a significant catalyst for both the DATs themselves and the broader Solana ecosystem.
  • Keep an eye on the Market cap to Net Asset Value (MNAV) of these DATs. A healthy MNAV that reflects the underlying yield could indicate strong investor confidence.

Layer 1s (L1s) as an Investment

  • The guest's venture firm, Rockaway X, is no longer investing in new Layer 1 blockchains.
  • The thesis is that the "game is over" for new L1s because success is now determined by ecosystem adoption (exchange listings, wallet support, DeFi protocols) rather than just technological performance.
  • Building a competitive ecosystem is a massive effort that could take at least five years, by which time established players like Solana will be even further ahead.
  • The guest observes that developers are primarily choosing to build on either Base or Solana.

Takeaways

  • The era of making 1000x returns by investing early in a new L1 blockchain may be over.
  • Investment opportunities may have shifted from the base protocol layer to the application layer built on top of established L1s like Solana.
  • Investors should be cautious about the hype around new "Solana killer" L1s, as the network effects of incumbent chains present a significant barrier to entry.

Double Zero (00)

  • Double Zero is a Solana infrastructure project focused on improving network efficiency.
  • It solves a major problem: 80% of transactions received by Solana validators are duplicates sent by traders trying to ensure their transactions get through.
  • 00 uses specialized hardware and optical networks to filter out these duplicates, reducing network noise and lowering latency for traders.
  • Rockaway X is actively involved, running a 00 node in Frankfurt and working with the UAE government to build a data center in Abu Dhabi. The goal is to place it geographically between Frankfurt and Tokyo to drastically cut global trading latency.

Takeaways

  • Double Zero (00) represents a "picks and shovels" play on the growth of the Solana network. Its success is tied to the increasing need for high-performance infrastructure to support on-chain trading.
  • The project's focus on reducing latency for arbitrage and high-frequency trading highlights the growing professionalization of the Solana DeFi ecosystem.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • Bitcoin (BTC):
    • The narrative of Bitcoin as a "store of value" is acknowledged as powerful but not yet proven. It is still largely treated as a risk-on asset.
    • The guest highlights that prominent bulls like Michael Saylor pitch Bitcoin to Wall Street based on its performance (e.g., "yielding 20% per annum") rather than its defensive, store-of-value properties.
  • Ethereum (ETH):
    • It remains Solana's primary competitor and has a significant advantage in Total Value Locked (TVL), with about 10 times more than Solana.
    • A price target of $60,000 for ETH from analyst Tom Lee was mentioned, though the guest seemed skeptical of the underlying assumptions.

Takeaways

  • Solana and Bitcoin offer different investment narratives. Bitcoin is positioned as a potential inflation hedge and digital gold, while Solana is framed as a high-growth technology platform generating cash flow through fees and staking.
  • A key metric to watch in the Solana vs. Ethereum competition is TVL. If Solana, through DATs and other initiatives, can begin to close this gap, it could signal a significant repricing relative to Ethereum.

Meme Coins & Pump.fun

  • The guest experimented by launching a creator coin on Pump.fun and observed a completely different user behavior compared to traditional crypto investing.
  • The market is characterized by extremely short-term speculation, with one successful trader having an average holding period of just four minutes.
  • The current Pump.fun product is criticized for incentivizing the constant creation of new, low-value tokens.
  • A suggestion was made for Pump.fun or a competitor to pivot to an "Instagram-like" model, where creators build long-term communities around a single token page, fostering engagement over rapid-fire speculation.

Takeaways

  • Investing in meme coins on platforms like Pump.fun is extremely high-risk and resembles gambling more than investing due to the hyper-short-term nature of the market.
  • There may be a future investment opportunity in a platform that successfully combines social media engagement with tokenization, shifting the focus from speculation to community-building. This "Instagram for tokens" model is a potential future trend to watch.
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Episode Description
Gm! This week Viktor Fischer joins the show to discuss his journey to investing in Solana in the early days to today. We deep dive into what gave Viktor conviction to buy Solana in 2018, how the thesis has evolved ever since, DoubeZero, crypto treasury vehicles, Solana DeFi & more. Enjoy! -- Follow Viktor: https://x.com/viktorfischer Follow Jack: ⁠https://x.com/whosknave⁠ Follow Lightspeed: ⁠https://twitter.com/Lightspeedpodhq⁠ Subscribe to the Lightspeed Newsletter: ⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed⁠ Join the Lightspeed Telegram: ⁠https://t.me/+QUl_ZOj2nMJlZTEx⁠ -- Crypto’s premiere institutional conference returns to London in October 2025. Use code LIGHT100 for £100 off at checkout: ⁠https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london⁠ -- Katana directs chain revenue back to DeFi users for consistently higher yields. It starts with VaultBridge, which turns bridged assets into yield streams that back a perpetually funded real yield, boosting rewards for DeFi users. Katana is pioneering Productive TVL, assets actually being used in DeFi and reinforces this with Chain-owned Liquidity, permanent liquidity the chain controls. Stop sleeping on your bags: ⁠https://app.katana.network/?utm_source=BW-Pod⁠ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: ⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/⁠ -- (00:00) Introduction (03:05) The Solana Origin Story (11:33) Katana Ad (12:35) The L1 Debate Is Over (17:06) RockawayX’s Updated Solana Thesis (27:59) What’s The Endgame For Solana? (31:17) Katana Ad (32:20) Tokenization & Bringing Assets Onchain (43:17) Crypto Treasury Vehicles, mNAVs & Solana DeFi (50:54) DoubleZero (01:00:37) Frankendancer (01:01:58) Pump Fun -- Disclaimers: Lightspeed was kickstarted by a grant from the Solana Foundation. Nothing said on Lightspeed is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Jack, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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