Monitor the upcoming CMD 411 governance vote on Solana, as its passage would significantly reduce SOL's inflation and could be a major positive catalyst for the token's price. Investigate resilient "DeFi 2.0" applications on Solana, such as the yield-trading platform Exponent, which is showing strong growth and fundamentals even in a down market. Keep an eye on the upcoming token sale for Ranger, a new project from the MetaDAO team, which is highlighted as a high-potential event to watch. An investment in Jupiter (JUP) is a high-risk bet

Solana (SOL)

• Network Revenue Declining: Solana's network revenue was $27 million in November, the lowest since February 2024, marking four straight months of decline.
• Shift in Fee Structure: There's a significant shift in how transaction fees are paid.
  • JITO tips, which are used for MEV (Maximal Extractable Value) to get transactions prioritized, have decreased by 85% since July.
  • Priority fees, the standard network fee, have only decreased by 58% in the same period.
  • This suggests a more competitive environment for MEV and improved network efficiency.
• Application Layer Value Capture: While network revenue is down, revenue for applications built on Solana has been much more resilient.
  • The ratio of application revenue to network revenue is at an all-time high.
  • In November, applications earned $3 for every $1 of network revenue, a 3x increase in 22 months.
• New Inflation Proposal (CMD 411): A new proposal aims to reduce SOL's inflation rate more quickly.
  • It proposes doubling the disinflation rate from 15% to 30%.
  • This would bring the inflation rate down to its long-term target of 1.5% in just 3 years (by early 2029) instead of the current 6.2-year timeline.
  • This change would cut approximately 22 million SOL (worth ~$2.9 billion at today's prices) from being issued, reducing potential selling pressure.
• Governance Changes: New governance tools are being released that will allow individual stakers to vote directly on proposals, overriding their validator's vote if they choose. This could increase the chances of the new inflation proposal (CMD 411) passing.
• "Decentralized Nasdaq" Thesis: The speakers discuss a core investment thesis for Solana: becoming the primary place for on-chain price discovery for all crypto assets.
  • Proprietary Automated Market Makers (PropAMMs) are already showing they can offer better prices for SOL/USD pairs than centralized exchanges like Binance.
  • If this efficiency can be extended to other crypto assets and even tokenized stocks, it could drive massive volume and revenue to the Solana network.

Takeaways

• Monitor the App Layer: The discussion suggests that the best investment opportunities may be in the application layer rather than the base layer (SOL) itself, as apps are capturing a growing share of the value. Investors should research promising applications on Solana.
• Watch the Inflation Vote: The CMD 411 proposal, if passed, would be bullish for SOL's long-term value by significantly reducing future supply. The new governance tooling makes its passage more likely than previous attempts.
• Long-Term Vision: The ultimate bull case for SOL is its potential to become the "on-chain Nasdaq." Progress in this area, such as PropAMMs gaining dominance in more trading pairs beyond just SOL, is a key trend to watch.

Jupiter (JUP)

• "Spread Too Thin" Concerns: There is a sentiment in the community that the Jupiter team is trying to do too much at once. Their product suite is extensive and includes:
  • DEX Aggregator (core product)
  • Perpetuals (Perps) trading platform
  • DTF (token launchpad)
  • Jupe Lend (lending market)
  • Plans for a "JupyterNet" blockchain
• Execution Issues: The team has had some recent "missteps."
  • The Humidify (WET) token sale on their launchpad was initially botted and had to be redone.
  • There has been some "drama" with the Kamino protocol related to their new lending product.
• Core Strength: Jupiter's primary strength is its ability to "own the end user." They have a massive user base from their aggregator and are attempting to build a "DeFi super app" to serve them, which is a powerful strategy.
• Communication is Key: The founder, "Meow," has recently become more active on social media, which is viewed as a positive step to improve communication and address community concerns.

Takeaways

• A Bet on the "Super App" Model: An investment in JUP is a bet on the team's ability to execute its "everything app" vision. While they have strong core products (aggregator, perps), their success depends on successfully launching and integrating new services.
• Monitor Execution: Investors should watch how Jupiter handles future product launches and manages its existing suite. The team's ability to learn from recent issues with the WET sale and Jupe Lend will be critical.
• High-Risk, High-Reward: The team's strategy of taking risks and building many products means some will likely fail. The investment thesis relies on the success of their core products and one or two new ventures becoming major hits, offsetting the failures.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

• Past Bull Thesis: Earlier in the year, the investment case was simple: the platform was generating ~$3 million in daily revenue at a relatively low valuation, and token buybacks were expected to drive the price up.
• Current Questions: The speaker expressed that it's "weird" that the platform is still generating $1 million in daily revenue despite a broad slowdown in memecoin trading.
  • There are questions about the source of this revenue and whether it's sustainable or primarily driven by bots.
• Lack of Communication: A major concern is the lack of communication from the team. The founder, Alan, has reportedly been silent for about two months, which is making the crypto community "suspicious."

Takeaways

• Caution Advised: The lack of communication and uncertainty around the sustainability of its revenue are significant red flags. Investors should be cautious until the team provides more clarity.
• Revenue Source is Critical: Before considering an investment, it would be crucial to understand the breakdown of PUMP's revenue. Is it from genuine user activity or from automated bot trading that could disappear quickly?

Other Investment Opportunities & Themes

• Humidify (WET):

  • Despite a rocky launch on Jupiter's platform, the token sale was ultimately a success for early participants.
  • The public sale was at a $69 million valuation, and the token was trading at a $280 million valuation at the time of the podcast.
  • Takeaway: This highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of participating in new token launches (ICOs). Even with technical issues, a strong project can perform well.

• MetaDAO (META):

  • Mentioned as a very exciting project focused on embedding token holder rights directly into crypto assets, which is seen as a crucial development for the space.
  • The upcoming token sale for Ranger, a perpetuals aggregator built by the MetaDAO team, is highlighted as an event to watch.
  • Takeaway: MetaDAO and its associated projects like Ranger represent a new frontier in protocol governance and value accrual that is worth monitoring.

• Theme: "DeFi 2.0" on Solana:

  • A new group of DeFi applications are showing strong growth and high Total Value Locked (TVL) even as the broader market has drawn down. This signals they are less reliant on SOL's price performance.
  • Exponent: Described as the "Pendle of Solana," this platform allows users to trade and speculate on the yield of various assets. Its TVL is near all-time highs, driven by USD-denominated yield-bearing assets, not just Solana-based ones.
  • Other examples: LoopScale and Hilo were also mentioned as resilient protocols.
  • Takeaway: Investors should explore this new generation of DeFi apps on Solana. Their resilience during a market downturn suggests strong product-market fit and could represent a significant growth area.

• Theme: Yield-Bearing Assets:

  • A major trend is the arrival of new assets on Solana that offer yield uncorrelated to crypto markets.
  • Examples include Onyx (reinsurance-backed yield) and Prime (US real estate-backed yield).
  • Takeaway: The growth of these assets makes yield-trading platforms like Exponent increasingly important infrastructure. This is a key sector to watch for innovation and investment opportunities.

• Theme: Prop AMMs for Perpetuals:

  • A key prediction for 2026 is that a perpetuals DEX will launch on Solana using a Prop AMM design.
  • This could be a "huge unlock" for on-chain trading, especially for non-crypto assets like tokenized stocks (X stocks), by providing deep liquidity and competitive pricing.
  • Takeaway: The evolution of Prop AMMs beyond simple spot trading into the much larger perpetuals market is a critical future trend. Any team that successfully builds this could become a dominant player on Solana.