The long-term investment thesis for Solana (SOL) centers on its potential to become the "on-chain NASDAQ" for all types of assets, so investors should focus on this ecosystem-level growth. A major catalyst for this vision is the development of equity perpetuals, enabled by tokenized X Stocks, which could be a massive growth driver over the next 1-2 years. Within the ecosystem, favor exposure to the dominant Prop AMMs which have captured the majority of trading volume from traditional platforms like Orca (ORCA). However, be cautious with the upcoming WET token from the leading Prop AMM, Humidify, as its value proposition for holders is currently unclear. To mitigate such risks, consider new projects launching as "Ownership Coins" on platforms like MetaDAO, which provide stronger, built-in investor protections.

Solana (SOL)

• The overall sentiment from the hosts is qualitatively bullish on the Solana ecosystem for the long term, despite mixed price action in 2025. The price was mentioned as being around $140, down from a high of $290 earlier in the year.
• Solana is seen as a dominant chain with a lot of talent and innovation, especially in consumer-facing applications and market infrastructure.
• A key long-term vision for Solana is to become the "on-chain NASDAQ," serving as the primary venue for price discovery for all types of assets, not just those native to Solana.
• The ecosystem is maturing, with a significant increase in stablecoin liquidity on the chain. This capital is seen as "sticky" and provides a strong foundation for the growth of DeFi applications.
• Performance improvements are ongoing. While Firedancer was a major narrative, the existing client, Agave (from Anza), has made huge strides, making the client landscape more competitive. The chain is expected to continue leading in performance, with a goal of reaching 1 million TPS (transactions per second).

Takeaways

• Investors should look past short-term price volatility and focus on the fundamental growth of the ecosystem, including developer activity, application innovation, and on-chain liquidity.
• The "on-chain NASDAQ" narrative is a key potential catalyst. Watch for Solana's ability to attract trading volume for non-native assets (like Monad was an early example) and tokenized real-world assets (X Stocks).
• The growth of stablecoin TVL (Total Value Locked) is a strong health metric. This capital can fuel the next wave of DeFi growth, making new yield-generating applications more viable.
• The competition between validator clients (Firedancer vs. Agave) is a positive development, as it promotes decentralization and performance improvements for the network.

Investment Theme: Prop AMMs vs. Traditional AMMs

• Prop AMMs (Proprietary Automated Market Makers) have completely changed how trading works on Solana, now accounting for over 60% of DEX trading volume.
• They function differently from traditional AMMs by using oracles to set prices, allowing for much tighter spreads on highly liquid assets like SOL/USDC.
• Projects like Humidify and SolFi are now the dominant trading venues for major pairs, even competing directly with centralized exchanges like Binance on SOL/USDC volume.
• This has come at the expense of traditional AMMs like Orca (ORCA), Radium (RAY), and Meteora. Their volumes are now mostly limited to the "long tail" of less liquid assets, primarily meme coins.
• The intense competition is highlighted by the fact that Lafinity, an early pioneer in this space, is reportedly shutting down due to losing trading flow to newer, more efficient Prop AMMs.

Takeaways

• Prop AMMs are the new standard for trading major assets on Solana. Investors looking for exposure to Solana's trading infrastructure should focus on this sector.
• The business models of traditional AMMs like Orca and Radium are under pressure. Their future may depend on their ability to capture the niche market of new, less liquid token launches. This presents a significant risk factor for holders of their tokens.
• The rise of Prop AMMs is a key enabler for Solana's "on-chain NASDAQ" vision, as they provide the deep liquidity necessary to trade any asset efficiently.

Humidify (WET)

• Humidify is currently the top DEX on Solana by volume, dominating the Prop AMM space.
• The upcoming launch of its WET token on Jupiter's DTF platform represents the first direct way for investors to get exposure to the successful Prop AMM meta on Solana.
• However, significant concerns were raised about the token's design (tokenomics).
  • It is unclear if the WET token will have any ownership of the protocol or rights to its revenue.
  • Its primary stated utility appears to be for staking to receive trading fee rebates, similar to the FTT model.
  • The team has not provided clarity on why a profitable high-frequency trading (HFT) firm needs to raise money via an ICO (Initial Coin Offering).
• The token is launching with a 23% float (percentage of tokens in circulation), which is considered low. The market has recently been punishing "low float, high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation)" tokens.
• While the ICO valuation itself is described as "extremely attractive," it will be very difficult for the public to get a meaningful allocation, with only 2% of the total supply available in the public sale.

Takeaways

• Humidify is a dominant player, but investing in the WET token carries significant risk due to a lack of clarity on its value accrual.
• Investors should demand answers to the open questions about revenue sharing, governance, and utility before participating. The market is no longer in a phase where projects can launch tokens without clear alignment with token holders.
• The low public allocation and low float could lead to high initial volatility. The market's reaction to the launch will be a key test of whether a strong project can overcome questionable tokenomics.

Investment Theme: Ownership Coins & MetaDAO

• "Ownership Coins" are presented as a market-driven solution to the problems of traditional token launches, where investors often had few rights and teams were not held accountable.
• This new model, championed by platforms like MetaDAO, embeds token holder protections and rights directly into the token's structure from the start.
• This addresses key risks like teams abandoning projects or structuring things so that revenue flows to a separate equity entity, not the token holders.
• The market is showing strong demand for this model, as it removes the "discount rate" investors previously had to apply to ICOs due to team and structure risk.

Takeaways

• The "Ownership Coin" narrative is a self-correcting force in the crypto market. Investors should favor projects that adopt these more transparent and aligned structures.
• Platforms like MetaDAO that curate these types of launches are worth watching, as they are effectively creating a new standard for investor protection in the permissionless world of crypto.

Investment Theme: X Stocks & Equity Perpetuals

• X Stocks (tokenized stocks on Solana) are described as a "very underappreciated" strategic asset for the ecosystem.
• While most X Stock volume currently happens on centralized exchanges, their existence on-chain is a critical building block for a much larger opportunity: equity perpetuals (perps).
• Equity perps (futures contracts for stocks that don't expire) require market makers to be able to hedge their positions. Tokenized stocks that trade 24/7 on-chain make this hedging process far more efficient than using traditional financial markets, which have limited hours and slow settlement.
• This is seen as potentially the most important catalyst for any crypto ecosystem over the next 1-2 years. Solana is well-positioned to become the leader in this area.
• Kraken's recent acquisition of Backed (the firm that operates X Stocks) signals that major industry players see the massive potential in this market.

Takeaways

• The development of a robust equity perps market on Solana could be a massive driver of growth and value for the ecosystem.
• Investors should monitor the on-chain volume of X Stocks and the launch of new DeFi protocols focused on equity perps. Success in this area could attract significant capital from both crypto and traditional finance.
• Kraken's strategic moves validate this thesis, suggesting it's a theme with institutional backing.

Investment Theme: Prediction Markets

• The integration of Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, onto Solana via DeFlow and Jupiter is a significant development. It allows any Kalshi market to be traded as a tokenized asset on-chain.
• The sentiment on prediction markets is mixed:
  • Secularly Bullish: The long-term potential is high. They offer a "pure play" way to bet on events and are seen as a powerful tool that will likely be integrated into media and social platforms.
  • Cyclically Bearish: There is a lot of hype and "multi-billion dollar valuations" in the space right now. The hosts are worried that traditional finance investors are "too prediction market pilled."
• Historically, prediction markets have struggled to expand beyond politics and sports betting. Kalshi's volume in 2025 has been dominated by sports, effectively turning it into an on-chain sports betting app.

Takeaways

• Tokenizing prediction markets on Solana unlocks composability, allowing developers to build new user experiences (e.g., integrated social betting apps) on top of Kalshi's infrastructure.
• While the long-term vision is compelling, investors should be cautious of the current hype and high valuations in the sector.
• The key to breakout success will be expanding beyond the core niches of sports and politics. Monitor whether new use cases for prediction markets gain traction. The integration with social apps is a key area to watch.

Emerging DeFi on Solana

• Beyond trading, there is excitement around the maturation of Solana's DeFi ecosystem, particularly with new, innovative applications that generate sustainable yield.
• New sources of yield are considered critical for attracting and retaining capital in the ecosystem.
• Specific projects mentioned as exciting developments:
  • Hilo: Praised for its novel decentralized stablecoin model (USDH and XL).
  • Anri: Noted as a very interesting project providing a stable source of yield from reinsurance markets.
  • Exponent and RateX: Mentioned for their growing TVL and importance in yield markets.

Takeaways

• Investors should look for "net new" DeFi applications that are not just forks of existing protocols. Innovation in areas like decentralized stablecoins and real-world asset yield (like reinsurance) are positive signs.
• The ability of these protocols to attract and maintain TVL, especially during market downturns, is a strong indicator of their resilience and the attractiveness of their yield.
• The growth of a diverse set of yield-bearing instruments makes the entire Solana DeFi ecosystem healthier and more appealing to a broader range of investors.