Crypto’s Path Forward In The Next 10 Years
Crypto’s Path Forward In The Next 10 Years
316 days agoLightspeedBlockworks
Podcast40 min 29 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider publicly traded crypto-proxy stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN), which are experiencing a supply/demand imbalance due to high institutional interest. Prepare for the upcoming Circle IPO, as it will likely attract significant institutional capital for the same reasons. Monitor Japan for a major catalyst, where a potential crypto tax reduction from 55% to 20% could unlock substantial investment. For emerging market exposure, look into assets with real-world utility like Tron (TRX), which serves as a primary chain for USDT payments. Finally, evaluate consumer-focused projects like Pudgy Penguins that are successfully building mainstream intellectual property and brand loyalty.

Detailed Analysis

Investment Theme: Consumer Crypto Applications

• The main thesis of the panel is that after years of building infrastructure, the crypto industry is at the beginning of a "consumer crypto revolution." • The infrastructure and tools (like Privy for wallet management) are now mature enough to build enterprise-grade consumer products without the previous technical bottlenecks. This has only been true for the last six months. • The panel argues that in the next 10 years, more value will be created at the application layer (the apps people use) than at the infrastructure layer (the blockchains themselves). • A key to success is abstracting away the complexity. For example, using terms like "Create Account" instead of "Create Wallet" to appeal to a broader, non-crypto-native audience. • Successful consumer apps will focus on solving real problems or creating "emotional utility" (joy, access, community) rather than being built purely on financial speculation.

Takeaways

Shift your focus: Investors should start looking beyond base-layer blockchains and towards the applications being built on top of them. The next major growth cycle may be driven by user-facing products. • Look for user-friendly design: When evaluating a project, consider its user experience. Is it easy for a non-crypto person to understand and use? Projects that successfully hide the blockchain complexity have a higher chance of mass adoption. • "Emotional Utility" is a moat: Projects that build a strong brand and a loyal community around a product people genuinely enjoy (like a game or collectible) have a stronger competitive advantage than those based only on token incentives. This creates a durable user base that isn't just there for a quick profit.


Investment Theme: Geographic Opportunities (US vs. International)

• The panel stressed a major difference in crypto's product-market fit depending on the region. • In the U.S.: The financial system is highly developed. Therefore, crypto's primary use cases are speculation (a "24-hour casino") for retail investors and backend infrastructure optimization for institutions like Stripe and JPMorgan. • In Asia & South America: Crypto solves immediate, real-world problems. It's used for things like cross-border payments, savings, and getting around capital controls. Tron (TRX) is highlighted as "the USDT chain for the world" because of its heavy use in these regions. • Japan: Specifically called out as a "huge opportunity" that has been overlooked. The government is expected to reclassify crypto taxes, potentially lowering the rate from 55% to 20%, which could unlock significant institutional and retail investment.

Takeaways

Think globally: Don't limit your investment thesis to what's popular in the U.S. or Europe. Some of the most durable, utility-driven growth is happening in emerging markets where crypto is a necessity, not just a speculative asset. • Keep an eye on Japan: Regulatory changes can be a massive catalyst. The potential tax reduction in Japan could make it a hotbed for crypto activity. Projects and exchanges focusing on the Japanese market, like Backpack, could be well-positioned. • Utility in emerging markets: The real-world usage of stablecoins like USDT on networks like Tron in places like South America demonstrates a sticky, non-speculative demand that provides a strong fundamental underpinning for those assets.


Publicly Traded & Institutional-Grade Assets

• A group of assets were mentioned as the primary way for traditional hedge funds and institutional investors on Wall Street to get exposure to crypto. • These include MicroStrategy (MSTR), Bitcoin ETFs, Coinbase (COIN), and the upcoming Circle IPO. • The panel notes there is extremely high institutional demand for crypto exposure ("Give me as much exposure to crypto as possible") but a very limited supply of regulated, easy-to-buy assets. • This supply/demand imbalance is driving the prices of these assets "through the roof," creating a potential "frenzy or this mania that doesn't necessarily reflect fundamentals."

Takeaways

Understand the "Proxy" Premium: When you invest in stocks like MSTR or COIN, recognize that part of their valuation may be a premium paid by institutions that have few other ways to enter the crypto market. Their price may be influenced by these capital flows as much as their core business performance. • Anticipate IPO Hype: The Circle IPO will likely be met with significant institutional demand for the same reasons. This could lead to high volatility and a valuation disconnected from fundamentals in the short term. • Diversification is key: While these stocks are major beneficiaries of institutional interest, their concentration as the main on-ramps also poses a risk. As more regulated crypto products become available, the "proxy" premium may decrease.


Pudgy Penguins (NFT/IP)

Pudgy Penguins was repeatedly cited as a rare example of a crypto project that has successfully built a strong community with high retention. • Their strategy has been to expand beyond crypto-native users by turning the NFT collection into a mainstream Intellectual Property (IP) play. • Key successes include selling physical plushie toys in major retailers like Walmart and Amazon, which helps onboard new people to their ecosystem in a friendly, non-intimidating way. • The project's success is attributed to focusing on "emotional utility"—people buy the products because they love the brand and the characters, not just for financial gain. This creates a strong moat.

Takeaways

Look for brand power: When evaluating NFT or consumer projects, assess their potential as a brand. Do they have a recognizable IP that could translate to merchandise, media, or games? • Physical-to-digital bridge: Projects that successfully connect real-world products to their digital ecosystem (like the Pudgy toys) have a powerful model for acquiring mainstream users. This is a strong indicator of a long-term vision.


Baxus (Consumer Platform)

Baxus is a marketplace for collectible spirits (whiskey, wine) built on the blockchain. It was highlighted as a case study for onboarding non-crypto users. • Key Strategy: They hide the crypto complexity. Users sign up with a social account (Apple, Google), not by creating a wallet. The wallet is only visible at checkout. • Clear Value Proposition: The platform explicitly shows users how much they can save by paying with crypto (USDC) versus a credit card. For example, saving $50 on a $1,000 bottle. This tangible benefit is a powerful incentive for new users to try crypto. • The platform has successfully onboarded an older demographic, with users in their 70s and 80s, proving that crypto can reach beyond young tech enthusiasts if the product solves a real problem and is easy to use.

Takeaways

Utility drives adoption: The most successful consumer applications will offer clear, tangible benefits. "Save 5% on your purchase" is a much more compelling message for the average person than "transact on a decentralized ledger." • The "Grandfather Test": When evaluating a consumer crypto app, ask if it's simple enough for a non-technical family member to use. Baxus demonstrates that this is not only possible but is the key to unlocking new, older, and often wealthier demographics.

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Episode Description
Gm! This is a live episode recorded at Permissionless 2025 with Tzvi (Baxus), Luca (Pudgy Penguins), Armani (Backpack) & Santi (Inversion). We deep dive into how to acquire users in crypto, finding PMF, why it's time to build great apps & more. Enjoy! -- Follow Tzvi: https://x.com/web4O Follow Luca: https://x.com/LucaNetz Follow Armani: https://x.com/armaniferrante Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jack: https://x.com/whosknave Follow Lightspeed: https://twitter.com/Lightspeedpodhq Subscribe to the Lightspeed Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed Join the Lightspeed Telegram: https://t.me/+QUl_ZOj2nMJlZTEx -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users. Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates] -- Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors the Lightspeed podcast. As Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing 20% of global crypto, it remains the top choice for securing your Solana assets. Buy a LEDGER™ device now and build confidently, knowing your SOL are safe. SOL lovers, grab your Ledger Flex Solana Edition now at: https://ecommerce-shop-frontend.stg.ldg-tech.com/products/ledger-flex-solana-edition-sol-eligibility -- (00:00) Introduction (01:26) Acquiring Users In Crypto (06:46) Crypto’s Path Forward In The Next 10 Years (13:52) Katana Ad (14:45) Ledger Ad (15:15) Finding PMF In Crypto (20:05) The Next Evolution Of Crypto Exchanges (29:13) Katana Ad (30:05) Ledger Ad (30:35) Why Build Consumer Apps? -- Disclaimers: Lightspeed was kickstarted by a grant from the Solana Foundation. Nothing said on Lightspeed is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mert, Jack, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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Lightspeed is a podcast for those interested in how crypto can solve real problems and create products users love. It's a callback to the garage days of Silicon Valley, where builders pushed the limits of hardware and software to build world-changing products. We interview the projects and founders that will make this same impact today.