Are the Trenches Finally Back?
Are the Trenches Finally Back?
100 days agoLightspeedBlockworks
Podcast55 min 53 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Pump.fun (POMP) is a key platform to watch as it is well-positioned to benefit from the recent revival in meme coin activity on Solana. The platform is strengthening its business model by successfully diversifying revenue from simple launch fees to capturing ongoing trading fees. This ecosystem growth is part of a bullish long-term thesis for Solana (SOL), as increased on-chain activity drives demand for the native token. While the meme coin sector is a leading indicator of this activity, investors should be aware it is extremely volatile and high-risk. For a more foundational investment, consider SOL as a direct beneficiary of the network's expanding application layer.

Detailed Analysis

Seeker (SKR)

  • The SKR token was airdropped to purchasers of the second Solana mobile phone, the "Seeker." The airdrop was designed as an incentive to drive sales of the device.
  • For most users, the airdrop was worth a "couple hundred bucks," which was close to the cost of the phone, effectively making the phone free or heavily subsidized.
  • The primary purpose of launching a new token was distribution. The hosts believe the phone would not have achieved over 100,000 sales without the airdrop incentive, as Solana Labs does not have a large treasury of SOL to give away.
  • At the time of the podcast, the token's fully diluted valuation (FDV) was between $250 million and $300 million. This is considered highly speculative and volatile, as is common with recent airdrops.
  • Tokenomics:
    • 30% of the total supply was allocated to the initial airdrop.
    • The token has a built-in inflation mechanism, starting at 10% for the first year, which is intended to fund future growth initiatives and incentives.
  • The token is compared to DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) tokens like Helium (HNT), where it serves to incentivize the network. In this case, SKR can be staked to "Guardians" (including Solana Labs and JITO) who help govern the mobile ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • SKR is a high-risk, speculative asset. Its valuation is not yet established, and investors should expect significant price volatility in the months following the airdrop.
  • The token's long-term value is an "open question." Its success is tied to the Solana Mobile phone's ability to build a lasting ecosystem of users and developers beyond the initial airdrop hype.
  • The discussion raises questions about value accrual. It's unclear if the token will represent ownership in a revenue-generating network or simply remain an incentive tool. The hosts note that historically, these types of infrastructure incentive tokens have "not been great investments."

Solana (SOL)

  • The podcast discusses the strategic implications of new tokens like SKR being launched within the Solana ecosystem. A key question is whether the value from successful projects like Solana Mobile will accrue to the new token (SKR) or back to the main network asset (SOL).
  • Solana is described as pursuing an "opinionated L1" strategy. This means the core developers are not just building the base infrastructure but are also actively involved in creating user-facing products (like the phone) to directly drive activity to the chain.
  • The ecosystem is attracting a wide range of builders, including meme coin launchpads and multiple tokenized stock platforms. This is viewed as a net positive for SOL, as all this activity ultimately happens on the Solana network, generating fees and demand for the native token.

Takeaways

  • Investors in SOL should be aware that the success of individual projects on Solana may not always directly translate to an increase in SOL's price, especially if those projects launch their own tokens that capture the value.
  • Solana's strategy of fostering a diverse and competitive application layer is a bullish long-term sign for the network's overall health and activity. The fact that many teams are choosing to build on Solana is a strong indicator of its relevance.

Meme Coins (General Theme)

  • The hosts identify a "mini cycle of meme activity coming back," supported by data showing an increase in the number of new tokens being launched and traded on platforms like Pump.fun.
  • The discussion highlights the extreme sentiment cycles in the meme coin space, which swings rapidly between despair ("the trenches are dead") and euphoria ("we are so back").
  • Recent Winners:
    • White Whale: A community-driven coin that recently ran to a market cap of around $200 million.
    • Penguin: Another meme coin that ran to over $100 million after being mentioned in tweets by accounts associated with the current U.S. administration.
  • Recent Failures:
    • NYC Mayor Coin: Described as a clear "pump and dump."
    • Don't (DONT): A coin launched by a publicly traded company (DeFi Dev Corp) that was met with skepticism.
  • The hosts emphasize the reflexive nature of meme coins: stories of traders making huge returns on small investments fuel excitement and attract more speculative capital into the market.

Takeaways

  • The meme coin sector may be entering a new cycle of activity, but it is too early to know if this is a sustainable trend. This space is characterized by extreme volatility and risk.
  • Investors should be highly cautious. The podcast suggests that organic, community-driven memes have recently performed better than those launched by public figures or corporations, which often end up as "pump and dumps."
  • The massive returns seen in some meme coins create a powerful "wealth effect" and attract more traders, but this can also be a sign that the market is becoming overheated and may be due for a correction. This is a pure form of gambling.

Pump.fun (POMP)

  • Pump.fun is a leading launchpad for meme coins on Solana, and its business metrics are seen as an indicator of the sector's health.
  • The platform is successfully diversifying its revenue streams. Previously reliant on launch fees, about 30% of its revenue now comes from its integrated Automated Market Maker (AMM), "Pump Swap," which captures fees from ongoing trading.
  • POMP is executing a "super app" strategy by moving both "up the stack" (acquiring a trading terminal and social features) and "down the stack" (capturing trading volume on its own AMM). This is part of a broader crypto trend where successful apps (like Phantom and Jupiter) expand to offer a full suite of services.

Takeaways

  • Pump.fun is evolving from a simple launchpad into a more mature and diversified trading ecosystem. Its ability to generate revenue from post-launch trading is a strong positive for its business model.
  • The platform's success is directly linked to the health of the meme coin market. If the current revival in meme coin activity continues, POMP is well-positioned to benefit significantly.
  • Its strategy to become an all-in-one mobile and desktop platform for meme coin trading could create a powerful competitive advantage if executed well.

Tokenized Stocks on Solana

  • An increasing number of platforms, such as Ando and X stocks, are offering tokenized versions of traditional stocks on the Solana blockchain.
  • However, current on-chain demand appears low. The recently tokenized IPO for BitGo saw very little trading activity on-chain, suggesting that current crypto users are not yet interested in trading these types of assets.
  • A major long-term catalyst mentioned is the New York Stock Exchange's (NYSE) plan to enable 24/7 stock trading using blockchain technology. This is seen as a huge validation for the entire tokenized asset space.
  • Current limitations:
    • Many existing tokenized stocks are "tracker" products that only offer price exposure without providing actual ownership rights like dividends or voting.
    • Regulated 24/7 trading could solve the "gap risk" that occurs over weekends, making tokenized stocks much more useful as collateral in DeFi lending protocols.

Takeaways

  • The tokenized stock sector is still in a very early, experimental phase. While the infrastructure is being built on Solana, widespread user adoption has not yet occurred.
  • The NYSE's move into 24/7 trading is a critical development to watch. It could legitimize the market and unlock the true potential of using stocks within DeFi applications.
  • For now, investors should be aware of the limitations. If a tokenized stock doesn't offer ownership rights, a perpetual future contract on a decentralized exchange might be a more capital-efficient way to get the same price exposure.
  • The market will likely see a "power law" outcome where one or two platforms eventually capture the majority of the volume, but it is too early to know who the winners will be.
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Episode Description
Gm! We're back with Carlos for another weekly roundup. We cover Solana’s SKR airdrop and token design, Solana Mobile’s strategy, renewed memecoin activity and launchpad economics, Pump.fun’s evolving revenue model, and tokenized stocks and internet capital markets on Solana. Enjoy! -- Follow Lightspeed: ⁠https://twitter.com/Lightspeedpodhq⁠ Follow Carlos: https://x.com/0xcarlosg Follow Danny: https://x.com/defi_kay_ Join the Lightspeed Telegram: ⁠https://t.me/+QUl_ZOj2nMJlZTEx⁠ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (2:23) SKR and the Solana Phone (25:54) Trenches Revival (43:09) Tokenized Stocks on Solana (54:56) Closing Comments -- Disclaimers: Lightspeed was kickstarted by a grant from the Solana Foundation. Nothing said on Lightspeed is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Danny, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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Lightspeed is a podcast for those interested in how crypto can solve real problems and create products users love. It's a callback to the garage days of Silicon Valley, where builders pushed the limits of hardware and software to build world-changing products. We interview the projects and founders that will make this same impact today.