Bitcoin's Oversold Signal Fired: Is It Getting Worse?
Bitcoin's Oversold Signal Fired: Is It Getting Worse?
16 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 21 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider gradually dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin (BTC) near $65,500–$68,000, but wait for stabilization before making short-term trades; a break below $57,750 would weaken the outlook.
  • Stay cautious on QQQ until it closes above $726.50; the analysis flags a possible decline into the low $600s.
  • Treat Gold as a potential short-term short bias while below $4,150, with $3,400–$3,500 identified as a possible downside area; this is a conditional scenario, not a confirmed forecast.
  • Watch Tesla (TSLA) at $380: holding it supports the constructive view, while a daily close below could expose $369–$370; a move above $413.15 would offer stronger confirmation.
  • Consider GameStop (GME) only if it posts a weekly close above $28, which could open a longer-term move toward $35–$40 over roughly six months to a year.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker sees $65,500–$68,000 as a key support zone: roughly the weekly 200-day simple moving average near $68,000 and the monthly 55 EMA near $65,500.
  • He expects a bounce attempt from this area to be more likely than an immediate sustained reversal. He said daily bullish divergence—one signal he wants to see before treating a bounce as more credible—was not yet present.
  • He views the zone as attractive for long-term dollar-cost averaging, and said he personally bought $1,000 of spot Bitcoin during the stream. He cautioned that trying to trade the first test of support with a leveraged long could be dangerous.
  • His short-term outlook remained cautious: he thought November was likely to close red and noted that the historical November low had fallen between the 17th and 25th in prior red Novembers. He said a close above $77,500 would be needed for November to finish green.
  • He cited a small historical sample in which Bitcoin was higher three months after five of six weekly 200-SMA tests, but also emphasized that prior tests sometimes led to further losses. The sample is limited and does not guarantee a similar outcome.
  • He held a Bitcoin put spread: long $72,500 puts and short $65,000 puts, with 20 contracts of each. He said he would consider closing it if signs of a bounce appeared. This is an options position discussed by the speaker, not a general recommendation.

Takeaways

  • For a long-term investor, the speaker’s approach was gradual accumulation near the cited support zone, not an assumption that the low was confirmed.
  • For short-term traders, his stated approach was to wait for evidence of stabilization rather than buy solely because Bitcoin had reached a major moving average.
  • The possible downside below the support zone remains important: he identified $65,500 as a further level to watch and said a break below the prior low near $57,750 would undermine his outlook.

XRP (XRP)

  • The speaker said XRP might attempt a short-term bounce near a previous low, potentially toward roughly $1.05, but stressed that this would not by itself confirm a lasting reversal.
  • He described the higher-timeframe chart as weak. He identified roughly $0.90 as a possible support area and said that a sufficiently bearish quarterly close could put $0.60–$0.70 in view next year.
  • He distinguished the performance of Ripple, the company, from the performance of XRP, saying that a successful company does not necessarily mean its associated cryptocurrency will perform well.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautious to bearish on XRP overall, with any near-term bounce treated as potentially temporary.
  • The speaker’s downside levels were conditional chart scenarios, not guaranteed price targets. XRP’s direction was also discussed as closely tied to Bitcoin’s behavior.

Gold

  • The speaker was strongly bearish on gold in the short to medium term, describing the chart as a potential parabolic blow-off top followed by a bull trap.
  • He identified around $4,150 as an important weekly level; in his view, remaining below it would keep the chart bearish.
  • He said gold could fall toward $3,400–$3,500, possibly early next year, and separately said he would be interested in buying around $2,500 over a longer horizon. He expected substantial bounces could occur along the way.
  • He did not endorse the claim that gold would be repriced to $20,000 an ounce, saying he had no view on that theory.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term stance was bearish, while his longer-term view included potential buying at substantially lower prices.
  • His outlook depends on a large decline occurring; the transcript did not establish that those levels will be reached or when.

Silver

  • The speaker viewed silver as weaker than gold and bearish in the short to medium term.
  • He identified $40–$43 as a possible area for a major bounce if silver fell further, and $31–$33 as a lower potential support zone.
  • He said a decline toward the low-$40s could occur over roughly the next three months, while noting that a bounce from there could take time.

Takeaways

  • The speaker did not view a possible bounce as proof that silver had reached a durable long-term bottom.
  • The cited levels were conditional technical scenarios, not firm forecasts.

Strategy (MSTR)

  • The speaker was bearish on MSTR in the short term, linking its weakness to Bitcoin’s decline and the stock’s sensitivity to Bitcoin’s price moves.
  • He said the stock could revisit around $100, with $94 as a lower potential level, before a more meaningful bounce attempt. He considered a short-term bounce possible but did not regard it as a confirmed reversal.
  • He viewed the stock as unattractive to buy at the time, while noting that he still regarded Michael Saylor positively.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was that MSTR could remain under pressure if Bitcoin continued lower. Investors should account for its high sensitivity to Bitcoin rather than treating it as a direct substitute for holding spot Bitcoin.
  • The $100–$94 levels were the speaker’s chart-based scenarios, not guaranteed support.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • The speaker expected further downside in the short term and identified roughly $459–$460 as a possible area for a test and bounce.
  • He described the broader chart as vulnerable to a larger correction and said a period of consolidation could be needed before a sustained move higher.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautious in the near term, with the cited lower price area presented as a possible support test rather than a confirmed buying opportunity.
  • The speaker’s broader concern was weakness across traditional markets, not just AMD.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

  • The speaker remained bearish in the short term, citing a lower high after the recent rebound.
  • He identified around $711 as a gap area and said a daily close above roughly $726.50 would make him less bearish.
  • He said a further decline toward the low $600s was possible, while also noting that a later bounce could occur.

Takeaways

  • His stance was defensive until QQQ could reclaim the levels he identified.
  • He framed the low-$600s as a possible downside scenario, not a certain destination.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker expected a short-term bounce to be possible, with roughly $83–$85 as an area it might reach.
  • He said the chart remained vulnerable unless SOL reclaimed roughly $98. He viewed the token’s direction as heavily dependent on Bitcoin’s next move.
  • He differentiated between a bounce and a reversal, saying a bounce alone would not make the broader outlook bullish.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was short-term bounce potential but continued medium- and long-term caution.
  • His key confirmation level was around $98, with Bitcoin’s trend a major factor.

GameStop (GME)

  • Despite general weakness in the market, the speaker noted that GameStop’s weekly chart showed a higher low and a higher high.
  • He said a weekly close above $28 could support a move toward $35–$40, and that the chart showed possible accumulation over longer time frames.
  • He also acknowledged uncertainty and described the potential move as taking roughly six months to a year.

Takeaways

  • GameStop was one of the few stocks discussed with a potentially bullish chart setup, but the view was based on technical patterns rather than an assessment of the company’s fundamentals.
  • The speaker’s bullish case depended on the stock sustaining its recent structure and clearing the stated level.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

  • The speaker saw a possible pullback toward $280–$285 after the stock’s recent advance.
  • He viewed cybersecurity as an attractive longer-term investment theme, citing concerns about AI-enabled identification of security vulnerabilities.
  • He also mentioned the cybersecurity ETFs BUG and HACK as alternatives to choosing an individual company.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was constructive on cybersecurity as a long-term theme but expected further near-term volatility.
  • He favored considering the broader sector as well as individual stocks; the transcript did not include a specific recommendation to buy PANW, BUG, or HACK.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The speaker said he held a core position and viewed $380 as an important level across several time frames.
  • He said remaining above $380 would preserve his optimistic view, while a daily close below it could lead to a short-term pullback toward $369–$370.
  • He said a move above the prior high near $413.15 would provide stronger confirmation of renewed strength.

Takeaways

  • His outlook was conditionally constructive while Tesla held above $380, but he treated a break of that level as a reason for caution.
  • He distinguished holding a core position from having confirmation of a full bullish breakout.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The speaker said a weekly loss of $153 would raise the risk of a larger decline, with a broad potential downside range from roughly $125 to below $100 in a severe scenario.
  • He thought a bounce was more likely to occur first and said he expected the stock to finish the week above about $164.25, though that was his expectation rather than a certainty.
  • He described the stock as a potential longer-term opportunity after a substantial pullback.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term view allowed for a bounce but highlighted $153 as an important level to monitor.
  • The lower price ranges were downside scenarios, not stated price targets with a fixed timeline.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • The speaker saw short-term weakness and the possibility of another test near recent lows.
  • If the stock lost the low he was watching near $272–$274, he identified roughly $235 as a possible next area, with around $205 as a more severe scenario.
  • He said he would be interested in the stock at those lower levels, but also considered another bounce attempt possible first.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term stance was cautious, but he viewed a deeper pullback as a potential longer-term buying opportunity.
  • The lower levels were conditional on support failing; the transcript did not specify a timeline.

Enovix (ENVX; ticker heard as “NENVX”)

  • The speaker described the chart as extremely weak and expected it to remain under pressure unless the trend changed.
  • He did not offer a specific price target or a fundamental investment case.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bearish based on the chart. The transcript did not provide enough company-specific information to assess the business or a longer-term investment case.

Intel (INTC)

  • The speaker expected a short-term bounce and said he could see the stock recovering toward $70–$75 in the coming month or so.
  • He also said the chart remained weak and that the bounce would not necessarily mark a lasting bottom. He held a core position but said he had sold most of it above $120.
  • He said a lack of bullish signals left open the possibility of a retest of the recent low.

Takeaways

  • The speaker separated the prospect of a short-term rebound from a confirmed long-term recovery.
  • He did not present Intel as a clear buy at the time; the long-term outlook remained uncertain.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • The speaker expected a possible retest of the recent low near $169.
  • He said a rebound that reclaimed about $218 would improve the outlook. If the stock failed to do so, he identified roughly $130–$135 as a possible lower area.
  • He expected a short-term bounce attempt but remained cautious about the broader trend.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was to wait for evidence of recovery rather than assume the recent low would hold.
  • The levels were conditional technical scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes.

Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR)

  • The speaker described the chart as very weak and said he would generally expect sideways or downward trading, possibly after a bounce toward $14–$15.
  • He cautioned that biotechnology stocks can move sharply on announcements and said that type of event-driven trading was not an area where he claimed an advantage.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bearish based on the chart but emphasized that company announcements could make the stock difficult to assess technically.
  • The transcript did not include a positive fundamental thesis or a specific catalyst.

Telenor (TEL; discussed against the Australian dollar)

  • The speaker viewed the British pound against the Australian dollar (GBP/AUD) as having a possible longer-term bottom, citing a pattern around the recent lows.
  • He identified a potential move toward roughly 2.02 but said the move could take a long time.

Takeaways

  • This was a cautious, technical currency-market view, not an equity recommendation on Telenor.
  • The transcript did not provide a timeline or discuss the fundamental drivers of GBP/AUD.

Iron (ticker unclear)

  • The speaker said the stock was in a possible bounce area but considered the weekly and monthly trends bearish.
  • He mentioned a potential short-term rebound toward roughly $28–$30, while saying the stock could struggle to reclaim $30 and might remain weak.
  • The company or ticker was not clearly identified in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a possible bounce but did not view it as a confirmed long-term reversal.
  • Because the security was not clearly identified, the discussion should not be treated as a reliable company-specific assessment.

HNG(E) (security unclear)

  • The speaker described the chart as having made a major high and said he expected a substantial decline over time, while allowing for a short-term bounce.
  • He mentioned roughly $100 as a possible level in his analysis. The security and the context for that figure were not clearly established in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The comments were bearish but too ambiguous to support a clear investment conclusion.
  • Confirm the security and the quoted level before using this discussion in any analysis.

Gold Miners Inverse ETF (GDXD)

  • The speaker discussed GDXD, describing it as a three-times leveraged inverse gold-miners fund.
  • Although his outlook on gold was bearish, he said he did not like the GDXD chart and considered leveraged inverse ETFs difficult to trade because results depend on both direction and volatility.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s comments were a warning about the complexity of leveraged inverse products, not a bullish endorsement of GDXD.
  • These products can behave differently from a simple bet that gold or gold miners will fall.

Semiconductor Inverse ETF (SOXS)

  • The speaker discussed SOXS, an inverse leveraged semiconductor ETF, and said he expected the fund could fall further in the short term.
  • He thought semiconductor-related assets might bounce before another potential move lower, illustrating the difficulty of timing leveraged inverse funds.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was not recommending SOXS despite his cautious view of parts of the broader market.
  • The discussion emphasized that leveraged inverse funds can be difficult to time because their returns are sensitive to both price direction and volatility.

HYPE (HYPE)

  • The speaker saw the token in a possible short-term bounce area, with a rebound toward $70–$80 conceivable.
  • He remained concerned about a further decline, identifying the low $60s as a more significant potential support area and $50 as a severe downside scenario.
  • He cited bearish divergence on the monthly chart as a reason for caution.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was short-term bounce potential within a broader bearish setup.
  • The stated support levels were conditional and did not establish that the token had reached a durable low.

LUNA (LUNA)

  • The speaker said LUNA might have a short-term swing low and could move sideways or bounce.
  • He rejected the idea that a longer-term or “macro” bottom was confirmed and remained bearish on the higher-timeframe chart.

Takeaways

  • The speaker distinguished a possible short-term bounce from a long-term recovery.
  • No price target or timeline was given.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker saw possible short-term bounce potential, with a move back toward $1,000 not ruled out.
  • He identified around $800 as a more meaningful potential bounce area and said a further decline could bring the price toward $750–$760.
  • He cautioned that a bounce would not necessarily mean the broader decline was over.

Takeaways

  • The view was cautiously bearish overall, with the possibility of a short-term rebound.
  • The cited levels were technical scenarios and not guarantees of support or recovery.
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Video Description
Question of the day: both of Bitcoin's signals fired last night. How deep is this flush? Every prior case dipped further first, a median 11% to 13%. 🟪 LIFETIME ACCESS, STILL OPEN: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code NOVEMBER until TradingView's change takes effect (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ #Bitcoin #BTC #investing CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: Bitcoin tests the weekly 200 SMA 0:50 My biggest cash position in stocks since 2022 2:20 My long put spread is still on 2:44 Bitcoin on the weekly 200 SMA, just under $68,000 3:52 The Daily Hundred: $1,000 of Bitcoin on Coinbase 4:38 The 200-week study: every first test after 3+ months away 5:06 Higher 3 months later 5 of 6; 1 month later 4 of 6 5:59 The miss: June 2022 6:29 Long term a value zone; short term, no hero trade 6:46 What I need first: daily bullish divergence 7:39 A weekly higher low here, or the 377 EMA 8:21 The November clock: a green month needs $77,500 8:55 The low came day 17 to 25; today is day 13 9:37 The downside table: 10.5% under the October low 10:31 My zone: $68,000 (weekly 200 SMA) to $65,500 (monthly 55 EMA) 11:32 My put spread: long the $72,500, short the $65,000 13:24 Options 101: free, link below 14:23 Revin Ribbons weekly: $67,750 15:11 No bullish divergence yet on the 12h, 6h or 4h 16:17 XRP: a pity bounce at the prior low 19:04 Gold: extremely bearish, $3,400 to $3,500 next 20:51 Silver: the next big bounce near $42 22:28 MicroStrategy: $100 to $94 before a real bounce 24:33 AMD: a bull trap, back to 460 24:57 Stocks: short term down, medium term down 26:49 GBP/AUD: a major bottom 28:14 QQQ: a lower high, back to the lows 30:44 The gambler's fallacy 31:21 Solana: a bounce, wary at 88 to 89 33:27 Bitcoin: what turns me bullish ($75,000) 34:48 Ripple the company vs XRP 37:49 GameStop: a weekly higher low 40:18 IREN on the weekly 200 SMA 42:32 Palo Alto Networks and the cybersecurity ETFs 44:34 Tesla: 380 is the pivot 47:19 Nvidia: 125 to 140 if 153 fails 49:48 Bitcoin bounce targets 51:41 Google: if 272 breaks, 235 54:50 Intel: a bounce to $70 to $75 56:29 CAPR: a biotech chart 58:17 Telenor 1:00:05 Bitcoin's yearly and six-month charts 1:00:35 Gold vs the debt doom loop 1:02:49 GDXD and leveraged inverse ETFs 1:04:58 The moon: a bear moon into Nov 24 1:07:42 Gold by year end 1:09:11 GameStop, again 1:11:28 SOXS and the semiconductors 1:13:36 HYPE: a leg to $60? 1:17:45 Zcash: $800 for the big bounce 1:21:02 Sign-off: the November low window DISCLOSURES General market commentary and education, published to the public on a regular schedule and not tailored to anyone. Nothing here is a recommendation that you buy, sell, hold or size any security, commodity, contract or digital asset. I am not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or commodity trading advisor, and I am not registered with the SEC, any state securities regulator, the CFTC or the NFA. Viewer charts discussed on stream are discussed as charts of the asset, not as advice about anyone's position; Super Chats and memberships support the channel and a place in the queue, they do not buy advice. I may hold positions in assets discussed and may trade them at any time without notice; where I know I hold something, I say so. Trading and investing carry substantial risk of loss, including loss of all capital; options, futures, perpetuals, leveraged products and event contracts can lose more than the amount invested. Statistics, backtests, paper trades and model outputs are hypothetical, have inherent limitations and do not predict future results. Results and testimonials, where mentioned, are individual experiences and are not typical. Some links are affiliate or referral links; I may earn a commission or credit if you use them, at no extra cost to you. Nothing here is an offer or solicitation where unlawful; do not use any platform that is not available to residents of your region. Consult a licensed professional about your own situation before acting.
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...