Question of the day: did the biggest hack in history just mark the low? Not by itself: 19 catastrophes since 2014 held within 10% of the low 42% of the time.
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#Bitcoin #BTC #investing
CHAPTERS
0:00 We are live: the biggest hack in crypto history
0:32 I bought more IBIT on the 10% pullback, my rule
1:01 Not sugarcoated: the closes that matter tonight
2:01 $65,000 is on the table; the macro low can still be in
3:06 North Korea stole our coins: the laptop story
5:15 SPY weekly: 7,575 is the pivot; under it the monthly fires
7:17 SPY under 7,575: the reconnects, then $7,200
8:22 Bitcoin, the hopium first: the 2-day 55 target hit
8:59 The 3-day fires the same setup under $78,500
9:26 Expect another sweep of the lows in early November
9:41 IBIT filled the September gap; the low to hold
11:05 Bitcoin resting on the weekly 21 EMA
11:31 The doom: under $75,000 the short-term bull case is over
12:23 The bi-monthly 5 EMA at $76,300 is front-runnable
13:15 A November rally to $78,500, then a rejection
13:40 Reverend ribbons: the mid band lost; the gray dots $68,500
15:10 If $75,000 breaks: the weekly 200 near $67,500, where I buy IBIT
15:37 That is not what a low looks like
16:06 Do hacks mark the low? I went through the data
16:55 Custodial holes: 29% green at 10 and 30 days, 43% at 90
17:35 All catastrophes: 60% green at 10 and 30 days
18:32 The golden cross is failing: day 52, +1.2% vs +20%; $73,000 is the fail line
19:12 The 5-day silver cross: a re-cross down negates it
20:02 The long-term signals failing where they should accelerate
21:04 Gold: a parabolic blow-off, $3,300 to $3,400 next
22:26 Silver: a bounce near $46, then lower
22:43 Intel: the $65 target hit in one day
23:29 Buy the dip? Rules are rules for the long-term holds
23:51 CIFR: a bounce at the weekly 200
25:30 The put/call ratio: my biggest point of hopium
27:16 Intel: a bounce to $70 to $75, then rejection
28:32 SPY monthly: a bearish engulfing under 7,575
28:58 NASDAQ: bearish engulfing plus divergence under 28,800
30:20 IREN: $19 is the bounce area
35:04 ZEC: a bullish consolidation, $1,040 is the line
36:26 HYPE: the best chart in the market; $75 is the line
38:17 Puts on Bitcoin? A $72,500 / $66,000 put spread, maybe
39:39 Equities on the dump: my 10% rule, ETFs over single names
41:29 The ETFs I hold: IBB, XBI, XLV
42:47 The four-year cycle debate: the low was October 2025
45:48 A bounce to $78,500 next week is extremely likely
46:48 CME and IBIT close the monthly today: 42 minutes left
48:31 NKE: a swing low, a monthly bullish engulfing
50:49 TradingView and lifetime indicators: the latest
52:37 BE: holding the low; $186 is the line
54:26 When was Krown last right? The record
54:53 The close that says lower: under $75,000, then $65,000 to $67,000
57:04 FTNT: a huge bearish engulfing; a bounce to $145 to $150
58:19 VVV: a bounce at $20, the range decides
1:05:04 Rosie says hello
1:06:00 SPY: an end-of-day rally attempt toward 7,555
1:06:43 HOOD: a bounce, then the bottom of the range
1:08:28 TradingView in writing: buy before the change, keep it for life
1:09:16 Straight down, or a bounce to $78,500 first?
1:11:10 Solana: under 95.84 on the monthly, lower
1:11:52 Sub-$60,000? My base case is the mid $60,000s
1:13:26 Back above $80,000: the lower high that changes my mind
1:16:32 QQQ lower: $635 to $645 is where I buy
1:20:52 The end-of-month rally: SPY hits 7,555
1:26:23 SPY and QQQ: the monthly bearish engulfing stands
1:28:08 AMZN: a weekly uptrend; $195 if it goes
1:31:05 IBIT closed $43.35, above its bi-monthly 5 EMA
1:31:53 Buying corrections never feels good; that is why there are plans
1:32:59 Hidden bullish divergence on the four-hour: $77,400 first
1:39:13 Where I get worried; $82,000 brings me back
1:41:08 IBIT weekly: a bounce off the 21; the monthly 5 EMA touched
1:42:21 No conclusive IBIT closes; the November rally still likely
1:44:05 Sign-off: back Monday with the closes
DISCLOSURES
General market commentary, not personalized investment advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. I may hold positions discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss. Some links are affiliate links.