Bitcoin's Hack-Day Low: The One Number That Matters This Weekend
Bitcoin's Hack-Day Low: The One Number That Matters This Weekend
14 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 45 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider adding to IBIT or broad-market ETFs such as SPY and QQQ only if following a long-term, staged-buying plan; the host’s purchases after declines were not a claim that the market had bottomed.
  • Watch Bitcoin at $75,000: a sustained break could expose $65,000–$67,000, while a move above $82,000 would improve the short-term outlook; don’t treat the recent hack as a reliable bottom signal.
  • Keep downside protection conditional: if Bitcoin confirms a breakdown, review an IBIT put spread around the illustrative $72,500/$66,000–$67,000 strikes, checking current option prices before acting.
  • HYPE was among the stronger crypto setups, but its bullish case depends on holding $75; for QQQ, watch $635–$645 as a potential area of interest in a deeper decline.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The host said the pullback was within the range of expected corrections, and maintained that the macro low may already be in. That view does not rule out a deeper decline.
  • The key downside level was $75,000, the prior weekly higher low. A close below it—especially on a monthly basis—would weaken the bullish case; the host said $65,000–$67,000 could then be in play. The weekly 200-day moving average was cited near $67,500.
  • If Bitcoin holds up, the host expected a possible November rebound toward $78,500–$79,000, but anticipated resistance there. A move back above $82,000 would materially improve the short-term outlook.
  • The host’s near-term view was cautious: even if a low forms, he expected a retest of recent lows and said a low might take until the end of the following week to develop.
  • The episode discussed a major crypto custody or exchange hack. The host said historical data did not make hacks a reliable signal of a market bottom: for custody breaches, he cited positive returns 29% of the time at 10 and 30 days, and 43% at 90 days. Broader catastrophic events had better historical results, but he said the data did not justify betting on an immediate recovery.

Takeaways

  • Treat $75,000 as the host’s main technical line in the sand, not as a guaranteed floor. A close below it would raise the risk of a move into the mid-$60,000s.
  • The host’s recovery case depends on Bitcoin holding recent lows and reclaiming higher levels; $82,000 was the clearest bullish threshold mentioned.
  • Do not assume an exchange hack marks a bottom. The transcript’s historical figures were presented as analysis, not a guarantee of future performance.

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)

  • The host said he bought a larger-than-usual amount of IBIT on the pullback, following his personal rule to buy more after a decline of over 10%. He emphasized that he was not certain the low was in.
  • He viewed IBIT’s gap fill from the September rally as a possible bullish sign, but noted that the ETF had fallen slightly below the gap and rejected an early rebound.
  • He said he did not want to see IBIT close materially below the recent low. He also noted that the monthly close held above the 5 EMA, while the bimonthly close narrowly reclaimed it—developments he viewed as preserving some upside possibility, not confirming a recovery.

Takeaways

  • The purchase was the host’s personal long-term action under a stated rule, not a claim that the decline had ended.
  • His framework was to watch whether IBIT holds its recent low and key moving averages; further weakness in Bitcoin would remain a risk to the ETF.

Bitcoin Put Spreads

  • The host said he was considering a put spread as downside protection for IBIT holdings if Bitcoin’s technical breakdown were confirmed.
  • As an illustrative setup, he mentioned buying a $72,500 put and selling a $66,000–$67,000 put. He said he would want to review actual option prices before acting and did not present it as an executed trade.

Takeaways

  • The idea was conditional on a bearish breakdown, not a general recommendation to buy puts.
  • Option prices and the chosen strikes would matter; the transcript did not provide a confirmed trade or expected return.

S&P 500 (SPY)

  • The host warned that a monthly close below the referenced 7,575 level could produce bearish divergence and a bearish monthly candle. He said that could lead to a deeper correction, with 7,200 as a potential downside area.
  • He cited several signs of weakening momentum, including bearish divergence on weekly and monthly measures. A move toward major moving averages was possible if the referenced levels failed.
  • SPY rallied late in the session, avoiding the worst monthly-close scenario described earlier. The host regarded the resulting close as less negative, but not as proof that the correction was over.

Takeaways

  • The host’s outlook depended heavily on the monthly close and subsequent follow-through. The late-session recovery reduced—but did not eliminate—the downside concern.
  • The cited 7,575 and 7,200 levels were the host’s chart levels; they should be understood in the context of the market instrument he was analyzing.

Nasdaq / Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)

  • The host described the Nasdaq as weaker than the S&P 500 and said a monthly close below 28,800 would confirm a bearish engulfing candle alongside bearish divergence.
  • If the S&P 500 fell toward the low 7,000s, he said the Nasdaq could pull back toward 25,900–26,000.
  • For the QQQ ETF, he identified $635–$645 as a potential area of interest in a larger decline, with roughly $670 as a nearer area he was watching.

Takeaways

  • The host saw more downside risk in technology-heavy indices than in the broader market, particularly if the monthly bearish signals were confirmed.
  • The levels were conditional chart areas, not stated price targets with a specific timeline.

Intel (INTC)

  • Intel fell more than 30% in the session, reaching the host’s previously identified $65 corrective level.
  • He said a bounce was possible, with $70–$75 as an area where he would watch for a test of moving averages and possible resistance. He also said the stock might fall closer to $60 before recovering.
  • He described the longer-term chart as poor and did not portray a potential bounce as a confirmed reversal.

Takeaways

  • The host viewed $65 as a correction level that had been reached, but remained cautious about the longer-term trend.
  • A rebound toward $70–$75 would not, by itself, establish that Intel had turned bullish.

Gold

  • The host said gold was making new lows and viewed its breakdown as more bearish than he had previously expected in timing.
  • He anticipated a possible move toward the low $3,000s, then potentially the mid-$2,000s over time, while acknowledging that bounces could occur.
  • He also discussed physical gold as a possible way to hold value in a cybersecurity crisis, but framed that as a theoretical consideration rather than a forecast that gold would necessarily retain its value.

Takeaways

  • The host’s chart view was bearish, despite gold’s usual safe-haven role.
  • The transcript raised physical possession as a security consideration, but did not establish that gold would be protected from price declines.

Silver

  • The host said silver looked weaker than gold and described its downtrend as more mature.
  • He saw a possible bounce near $46, but did not expect that area to necessarily end the broader decline.

Takeaways

  • In the host’s view, a bounce near $46 would not by itself signal a durable bottom; he expected further downside risk over time.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum was briefly described as weaker than Bitcoin during the selloff.

Takeaways

  • The transcript did not provide a specific price level, timeline, or separate investment thesis for Ethereum.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The host described Zcash’s price action as a relatively constructive consolidation despite the broader market weakness.
  • He cited a broad range, with roughly $1,100–$1,150 as a potential lower area and $1,400 as an upper boundary. He said he would not consider the setup bearish unless it broke below about $1,115, and mentioned $1,040 as a more significant downside threshold.
  • He expected the setup could take time to resolve and did not expect an immediate low.

Takeaways

  • The host’s bias was cautiously bullish while ZEC held above the cited lower levels, but he expected further consolidation rather than a guaranteed breakout.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • HYPE was one of the few assets the host said was holding up well during the market selloff.
  • He described a daily range of roughly $75–$95.25 and said the weekly chart remained constructive above $75. He viewed the asset as having a stronger setup than most of the market.

Takeaways

  • The host’s bullish bias depended on HYPE holding the lower end of its range, particularly $75. A break below that level would weaken the setup.

Monero (XMR)

  • The host described XMR as holding a consolidation, with $550 as an important lower level. He said it could pull back before attempting another move higher.
  • He noted substantial recent volatility, including repeated moves between approximately $560 and the $620–$650 area.

Takeaways

  • The host saw a constructive higher-time-frame picture, but expected volatility and did not present the price as an immediate breakout.

Solana (SOL)

  • The host said Solana looked weaker than Bitcoin and Ethereum during the selloff.
  • He warned that a monthly close below $95.84 could increase the chance of a retest of its summer lows. He did not expect every crypto asset necessarily to make new lows.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was cautious, with $95.84 as a level to watch and the summer lows as a possible retest area.

VVV (Crypto)

  • The host said VVV could move back toward approximately $20 and potentially bounce there.
  • He said a close below roughly $21 would be a significant warning, and estimated that a failed bounce could expose $15.50–$16.
  • He considered the chart inconclusive at the time, with more signs of a breakdown than a clear reversal.

Takeaways

  • The host saw a possible bounce near $20, but said the setup would deteriorate materially if the cited support failed.

Cipher Mining (CIFR)

  • The host said CIFR might bounce around its weekly 200-day simple moving average, with the possibility of falling somewhat below it first.
  • He cautioned that a bounce would not amount to a reversal and described the longer-term setup as poor.

Takeaways

  • The host saw potential for a short-term bounce, but was not presenting CIFR as a long-term investment he favored.

BE (Ticker as stated)

  • The host said the stock was holding a higher low despite the broader market weakness, which he viewed as constructive.
  • He identified $186 as the key level: losing it on a daily close, and preferably a weekly close, would significantly weaken the chart.

Takeaways

  • The host’s positive view was conditional on holding $186. The transcript did not identify the company behind the ticker or provide a price target.

IRON (Name/ticker as stated)

  • The host said he expected a possible bounce around $18.50–$19 but described the longer-term downtrend as severe.
  • He said the stock would remain technically weak below roughly $50 and that he personally would not buy it.

Takeaways

  • The host distinguished a possible short-term bounce from a longer-term recovery; he expressed a strongly cautious view.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • The host said AMD’s chart was stronger than Intel’s, but still expected further downside into November.
  • He identified $425–$430 as a potential area for a future low and said the longer-term picture remained more constructive if the stock held above $400.

Takeaways

  • The host’s outlook was cautious in the near term but more favorable over the longer term, subject to holding the cited levels.

Nike (NKE)

  • The host said Nike’s monthly chart was close to forming a bullish engulfing candle and viewed the price action as a possible swing low.
  • He said a rally toward $50 was possible, while cautioning that this would not necessarily mark a broader trend reversal.

Takeaways

  • The host saw potential for a rebound, but did not call a confirmed long-term bottom.

Fortinet (FTNT)

  • The host described FTNT as having a severe bearish engulfing candle, but thought a bounce was likely after its decline.
  • He cited $145–$150 as a possible rebound area in November.

Takeaways

  • The potential rebound was a short-term chart view, not a claim that the longer-term trend had turned positive.

BigBear.ai (BBAI)

  • The host said BBAI could rebound toward approximately $3, but described the chart as weak overall.
  • He identified roughly $3.40 as a level it would need to recover to improve the outlook.

Takeaways

  • The host viewed a near-term bounce as possible, while remaining cautious unless BBAI reclaimed the cited level.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The host expected HOOD could move toward the lower part of its range, then potentially bounce.
  • He cited approximately $75–$83 as a possible bounce area.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was that a bounce could occur within that range, not that it would necessarily lead to a sustained recovery.

Dropbox (DBX)

  • The host described DBX’s longer-term chart as bullish following a breakout from a prolonged consolidation.
  • He said a short-term pullback toward $33–$34 would not necessarily undermine that longer-term view.

Takeaways

  • The host favored the longer-term setup, while allowing for a near-term pullback before any further advance.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • The host said he had been scaling out of individual stocks over the prior six months and was mostly out of Coinbase, as part of a broader shift toward ETFs.
  • He did not provide a specific outlook or price level for COIN.

Takeaways

  • The transcript reflects the host’s portfolio positioning rather than a new buy or sell recommendation for Coinbase.

Healthcare ETFs (IBB, XBI, XLV)

  • The host said healthcare ETFs had been among the stronger recent performers and identified IBB, XBI, and XLV as funds he held or favored.
  • He described XLV, the healthcare-sector ETF he meant, as having resolved a long consolidation and said its chart looked bullish.
  • He said he was not adding to these positions at the time because they had not reached his preferred buying levels.

Takeaways

  • The host favored healthcare as a sector, but did not identify a specific entry price or near-term target.

Defense and Defense-Technology ETFs

  • The host said he liked defense and defense-technology ETFs as part of his portfolio.
  • He did not name particular funds, prices, or a timeline.

Takeaways

  • Defense and defense technology were presented as areas of interest, without a specific fund recommendation.

MSTR Inverse ETF (MSTZ)

  • MSTZ was identified as a 2× inverse ETF tied to MicroStrategy (MSTR). The host said it could rebound toward about $5.
  • He generally said he dislikes products of this type, which combine leverage with an inverse exposure.

Takeaways

  • The host’s possible rebound scenario was a short-term chart observation, not an endorsement of the product. Its leveraged inverse structure was the main caution raised in the discussion.

Long-Term Index Investing

  • The host said he increases his long-term purchases of broad-market ETFs after declines of 10% or more, applying that rule to funds such as SPY and QQQ.
  • He said he had made purchases under this approach but did not claim that the market had bottomed.
  • He described health ETFs as another area of interest and said he had largely reduced individual-stock holdings.

Takeaways

  • The approach discussed was a rules-based long-term buying strategy during larger drawdowns, rather than a call that current market prices marked a low.
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Video Description
Question of the day: did the biggest hack in history just mark the low? Not by itself: 19 catastrophes since 2014 held within 10% of the low 42% of the time. 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME through Oct 31 noon PT (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ #Bitcoin #BTC #investing CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: the biggest hack in crypto history 0:32 I bought more IBIT on the 10% pullback, my rule 1:01 Not sugarcoated: the closes that matter tonight 2:01 $65,000 is on the table; the macro low can still be in 3:06 North Korea stole our coins: the laptop story 5:15 SPY weekly: 7,575 is the pivot; under it the monthly fires 7:17 SPY under 7,575: the reconnects, then $7,200 8:22 Bitcoin, the hopium first: the 2-day 55 target hit 8:59 The 3-day fires the same setup under $78,500 9:26 Expect another sweep of the lows in early November 9:41 IBIT filled the September gap; the low to hold 11:05 Bitcoin resting on the weekly 21 EMA 11:31 The doom: under $75,000 the short-term bull case is over 12:23 The bi-monthly 5 EMA at $76,300 is front-runnable 13:15 A November rally to $78,500, then a rejection 13:40 Reverend ribbons: the mid band lost; the gray dots $68,500 15:10 If $75,000 breaks: the weekly 200 near $67,500, where I buy IBIT 15:37 That is not what a low looks like 16:06 Do hacks mark the low? I went through the data 16:55 Custodial holes: 29% green at 10 and 30 days, 43% at 90 17:35 All catastrophes: 60% green at 10 and 30 days 18:32 The golden cross is failing: day 52, +1.2% vs +20%; $73,000 is the fail line 19:12 The 5-day silver cross: a re-cross down negates it 20:02 The long-term signals failing where they should accelerate 21:04 Gold: a parabolic blow-off, $3,300 to $3,400 next 22:26 Silver: a bounce near $46, then lower 22:43 Intel: the $65 target hit in one day 23:29 Buy the dip? Rules are rules for the long-term holds 23:51 CIFR: a bounce at the weekly 200 25:30 The put/call ratio: my biggest point of hopium 27:16 Intel: a bounce to $70 to $75, then rejection 28:32 SPY monthly: a bearish engulfing under 7,575 28:58 NASDAQ: bearish engulfing plus divergence under 28,800 30:20 IREN: $19 is the bounce area 35:04 ZEC: a bullish consolidation, $1,040 is the line 36:26 HYPE: the best chart in the market; $75 is the line 38:17 Puts on Bitcoin? A $72,500 / $66,000 put spread, maybe 39:39 Equities on the dump: my 10% rule, ETFs over single names 41:29 The ETFs I hold: IBB, XBI, XLV 42:47 The four-year cycle debate: the low was October 2025 45:48 A bounce to $78,500 next week is extremely likely 46:48 CME and IBIT close the monthly today: 42 minutes left 48:31 NKE: a swing low, a monthly bullish engulfing 50:49 TradingView and lifetime indicators: the latest 52:37 BE: holding the low; $186 is the line 54:26 When was Krown last right? The record 54:53 The close that says lower: under $75,000, then $65,000 to $67,000 57:04 FTNT: a huge bearish engulfing; a bounce to $145 to $150 58:19 VVV: a bounce at $20, the range decides 1:05:04 Rosie says hello 1:06:00 SPY: an end-of-day rally attempt toward 7,555 1:06:43 HOOD: a bounce, then the bottom of the range 1:08:28 TradingView in writing: buy before the change, keep it for life 1:09:16 Straight down, or a bounce to $78,500 first? 1:11:10 Solana: under 95.84 on the monthly, lower 1:11:52 Sub-$60,000? My base case is the mid $60,000s 1:13:26 Back above $80,000: the lower high that changes my mind 1:16:32 QQQ lower: $635 to $645 is where I buy 1:20:52 The end-of-month rally: SPY hits 7,555 1:26:23 SPY and QQQ: the monthly bearish engulfing stands 1:28:08 AMZN: a weekly uptrend; $195 if it goes 1:31:05 IBIT closed $43.35, above its bi-monthly 5 EMA 1:31:53 Buying corrections never feels good; that is why there are plans 1:32:59 Hidden bullish divergence on the four-hour: $77,400 first 1:39:13 Where I get worried; $82,000 brings me back 1:41:08 IBIT weekly: a bounce off the 21; the monthly 5 EMA touched 1:42:21 No conclusive IBIT closes; the November rally still likely 1:44:05 Sign-off: back Monday with the closes DISCLOSURES General market commentary, not personalized investment advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. I may hold positions discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss. Some links are affiliate links.
About Krown
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Krown

By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...