Everything printed over the weekend: the 10-day reconnect closed $81,412 over its line, the 10-day stochastic crossed 80, the weekly bearish cross printed. Golden cross day 40 did not step.
New studies: the week into FOMC across 71 decisions since 2018, what golden crosses under the median path at day 40 did next, how 41 corrective setups ended and what the re-cross paid, and the 6 prior bars where both 10-day signals printed together; plus Kalshi's Fed and October lines.
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#Bitcoin #BTC #Live #FOMC
CHAPTERS
0:00 We are live: a quiet week into the Fed, and what fired last week
0:45 An edge for the last 12 days of October
2:27 Gold and silver: still bearish
4:02 Ethereum: last week's low is the line
4:53 Hard to be bearish on the higher timeframes
5:56 The week into FOMC: 54% green, no edge
7:13 What fired last week
7:45 The 10-day reconnect: official, 62% green in 10 days
8:44 +5% from the close: about $85,250
9:33 The 10-day stochastic: over 80, 79% green a month later
10:54 Since 2018 +14.5%: $93,000 to $95,000 by mid-November
11:56 The stack: both signals on one bar, 83% green
12:39 Since 2016: only three cases
13:04 20 and 30 days out
14:01 The line in the sand: the 12-hour trending higher low
14:41 Bearish divergence on the 12-hour; $81,900
14:56 The 2-day 200 SMA; under it, $76,500
15:34 Ethereum's line: $2,330
16:07 The 5-day silver cross: pending within two closes
17:22 It needs $83,622 on the next close
17:57 The longer Bitcoin goes sideways, the better it looks
18:40 Every 5-day silver cross since 2015
19:52 The downside map: $76,500, $75,000, then $67,000 to $70,000
20:20 Hidden bullish divergence building on the daily and 2-day
20:52 If you are bullish, last week's low holds
21:30 Kalshi: the Fed hold at 86c
22:22 Kalshi: trade $50, up to $500 credit
22:59 Kalshi: Friday's close, a $25 bet above $82,000
24:04 Gold short from 4,170
25:24 A tough entry to reposition
27:54 Bearish below 32.25 weekly
28:54 McDonald's: a swing low?
31:54 TA 101 and Options 101 are free
33:54 Tight ranges: no short-term call
35:54 RSI at 30 with no divergence
37:54 A lower high first, then the higher low
39:54 Solana vs Ethereum
41:54 XRP: the invalidation at 1.25
43:54 Realized returns and leverage
44:54 Talos Energy
46:54 Bitcoin holds its low: the alts follow
48:54 Shitcoin requests
51:54 Calamity: a retracement to 670
54:54 Best and worst case ranges
56:54 A test toward $6
1:00:54 The 5 and 21 EMA at the same number into Friday
1:02:54 A bounce to 13,000 sats
1:04:54 The bi-weekly tells the story
1:06:54 HYPE vs Bitcoin
1:07:54 Archangel and the spirits
1:08:54 Five failures in a year
1:09:54 Sideways into the end of the month
1:11:54 The euro and the long-term downtrend
1:12:54 A real reversal chance
1:13:54 Risk management in three parts
1:15:54 Rooftop Koreans
1:18:54 Mid to low 40s before year-end
1:24:54 Lost all the moving averages: back to 333
1:28:54 LHX: a bounce
1:30:54 A move to $60 and a lower high
1:34:54 Lower high confirmed: 62, 63
1:41:54 New highs cycle to cycle
1:43:54 Monero vs Zcash
1:45:54 You must figure this out before you trade
1:47:54 Coinbase follows Bitcoin
1:49:54 Broadcom and the AI-trading claim
1:51:54 The four stages of ideological subversion
1:53:21 Ending on that note
1:54:02 Sign-off: above last week's low, there is still hope