Bitcoin Live: The Week Into the Fed.
Bitcoin Live: The Week Into the Fed.
15 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 54 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC) has the strongest near-term setup while it holds $79,700 on a daily close; a move above $84,200 would strengthen the case for $85,250 within 10 days and potentially $90,000 this month.
  • If BTC closes below $79,700, watch $76,500–$77,000; a break below $75,000 raises the risk of $67,000–$70,000.
  • Coinbase (COIN) could rebound toward $190–$195 if $161 support holds, but a Bitcoin breakdown could expose $140.
  • Silver has a bearish outlook, with $54 as a near-term downside area and $42–$43 as a later target, though a bounce toward $60 remains possible.
  • Cameco (CCO) was presented as a potential trade near C$110, with risk below C$109.89 and roughly C$85 as a reassessment area.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker’s near-term bias was bullish, provided Bitcoin holds last week’s low of about $79,700 on a daily closing basis.
  • Two technical signals were cited as favoring further upside:
    • A 10-day moving-average setup had historically been followed by a green period 62% of the time over the next 10 days, with a median return near 5%.
    • A 10-day momentum signal had historically been followed by a green month 79% of the time, with a median return of 14.5%.
    • When the signals occurred together, the speaker cited an 83% historical frequency of positive returns over 10, 20, and 30 days. These historical results are not guarantees.
  • The speaker’s illustrative levels included about $85,250 within 10 days and $93,000–$95,000 by mid-to-late November if the bullish setups play out. He also said he had not given up on $90,000 this month.
  • A move above roughly $84,200 would strengthen the short-term bullish case.
  • If Bitcoin closes below $79,700, the speaker would look for $76,500–$77,000. A break below the $75,000 low would raise the possibility of $67,000–$70,000. He described a deeper move toward the weekly 200-day average near $67,500 as possible, but not his base case.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored holding a bullish bias only while Bitcoin remains above $79,700 on a daily close; that level was the speaker’s main short-term line in the sand.
  • A close above $84,200 would support the case for further upside, while a close below $79,700 would shift attention to the lower support zones.
  • The speaker expected limited activity ahead of the Fed decision and emphasized that the cited probabilities are historical patterns, not certainties.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum was described as weaker than Bitcoin in the short term.
  • The speaker said a two-day close below about $2,330 would count as a breakdown and could lead to a move toward $2,000, or slightly below.
  • For Ethereum to remain consistent with a bullish outlook, he said last week’s low should hold.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s key short-term level was $2,330: holding above it would leave room for a recovery, while closing below it would raise the risk of a deeper pullback toward $2,000.

Solana (SOL)

  • In the SOL/ETH comparison, the speaker saw a potential reversal but said it was not confirmed until Solana reclaimed its previous trend resistance, around the weekly 55-period moving average.
  • He said he would favor Solana over Ethereum if that reclaim occurred.
  • On the SOL/BTC chart, the speaker expected a possible bounce toward roughly 13,000 satoshis, but viewed the broader trend as weak. He identified about 14,600 satoshis as important resistance and said a monthly close below roughly 3 million satoshis would be a bearish signal for Ethereum versus Bitcoin; this level was discussed in the ETH/BTC analysis, not as a SOL target.

Takeaways

  • The relative-strength case for Solana improves if it reclaims the cited resistance against Ethereum.
  • The speaker viewed a bounce in SOL/BTC as possible, but not enough by itself to reverse the broader downtrend.

Gold

  • The speaker was bearish on gold over the coming years and said the chart had looked bearish since its recent high.
  • He saw potential for another short-term move toward $4,080 and said a move back toward $4,000, or slightly below, was possible over the next few weeks.
  • He thought gold would likely be below $4,000 by year-end, but said he had no strong view on the exact timing.
  • He noted that gold could still rally in the short term and that a major breakdown might not occur during the current month.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s stated bias was bearish, but he cautioned that the timing of a decline was uncertain and that short-term rebounds remained possible.
  • He identified $4,700 as an important level above which his bearish view would be less applicable.

Silver

  • The speaker was more bearish on silver than on gold, describing silver as having more downside potential.
  • He cited $54 as a near-term downside area, followed by $42–$43 as a later target, and said silver could reach the mid-to-low $40s before year-end.
  • A short-term rebound toward $60 was possible.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored a bearish view, but recognized that a near-term bounce could occur before further declines.
  • The levels mentioned were possible areas to watch, not guaranteed price targets.

Kaspa (KAS)

  • A viewer asked about Kaspa. The speaker dismissed the chart as a “random shit coin” and did not provide substantive analysis or a price target.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no developed investment case or specific trading levels for Kaspa.

McDonald’s (MCD)

  • The speaker thought McDonald’s might be forming a swing low and expected a rebound.
  • He cited $255 as a potential near-term level and around $270 as a longer-term area. A larger rebound toward $300 was possible, though he said the move would take time.
  • He did not claim that the broader correction was definitively over.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautiously positive for a rebound, while the longer-term trend remained uncertain.
  • The cited levels were contingent on the potential low holding.

IREN (IREN; referred to as “Iron”)

  • The speaker described the chart as bearish and said a bounce was possible, with about $32.25 as a potential upper area for that rebound.
  • He said a move below $32.25 would keep the bearish case intact and pointed to roughly $18–$19 over the following months as a possible lower area.

Takeaways

  • The speaker did not view a short-term bounce as a confirmed reversal.
  • He treated $32.25 as an important level and described substantial downside risk if the bearish trend continued.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • NEAR was holding up better than many other cryptocurrencies, according to the speaker.
  • He viewed about $4 as an important support area. Below it, he would become concerned that NEAR was joining the broader decline in smaller cryptocurrencies.
  • He expected trading to remain mostly range-bound between roughly $4 and $5.50 for a while, while noting that holding above $4 would make the consolidation look more constructive.
  • A potential move later in November or in December was discussed, but not as a firm forecast.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautiously constructive as long as NEAR holds above $4, but he did not expect an immediate major breakout.

SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)

  • The speaker said a weekly move below the prior week’s low was not, by itself, a meaningful trend signal.
  • He identified about $143.77–$144 as the more important level for the current uptrend.
  • He expected a possible bounce toward $150, and potentially $155–$156. A lower high around that area followed by a break below the key support would make the trend more concerning.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term view allowed for a bounce, but he considered $143.77–$144 the key level to monitor for a potential trend breakdown.

XRP (XRP)

  • XRP was described as being near an important support area around $1.25, which the speaker associated with major daily and weekly moving averages.
  • He said a hold there could support a rebound. A daily close below $1.25 would make him look for a pullback toward roughly $1.05–$1.10.

Takeaways

  • The speaker treated $1.25 as a key support and potential risk-control level; losing it on a daily close would weaken the outlook.

Talos Energy (TALO)

  • The speaker thought Talos could rise toward $20–$22, provided it remained above about $16.
  • He described the long-term chart as poor, despite the potential short-term upside.

Takeaways

  • The discussion pointed to a possible short-term rebound, but the speaker remained cautious about the longer-term chart.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • The speaker said Coinbase would likely hold its range if Bitcoin did not break down.
  • He identified about $161 as an important support. If it held, he expected a possible recovery toward $190–$195.
  • Reclaiming around $208 would be a stronger sign of reversal, with about $270 mentioned as a possible higher area.
  • If Bitcoin broke down, the speaker expected Coinbase to be weaker and said it could fall toward $140.

Takeaways

  • Coinbase’s outlook was tied closely to Bitcoin’s direction: holding $161 could allow a rebound, while a Bitcoin breakdown could put $140 in view.

Cameco (CCO; referred to as CCJ during the discussion)

  • After clarifying the company as Cameco, the speaker said an entry around C$110 was an area he would consider.
  • He identified C$109.89 as the level below which he would take a loss, and mentioned around C$85 as a possible area to reassess.
  • The levels were discussed in Canadian dollars.

Takeaways

  • The speaker described a possible trade setup around C$110, with a clearly defined risk level just below C$109.89. These were his trading levels, not a guaranteed outcome.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

  • The speaker identified $700 as the key level for the uptrend.
  • Holding above it could allow the broader advance to continue. A break below $700 would raise the risk of a larger pullback toward approximately $670.
  • He also said that, for a bullish month-end outlook, QQQ should avoid ending the month below $700.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s outlook was conditional: holding $700 supported the bullish case, while losing it would materially weaken the setup.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

  • The speaker expected more short-term downside, but viewed roughly $12.75–$13.25 as a possible bounce area.
  • If a rebound formed a lower high below $20, he said the longer-term outlook would look concerning.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a possible rebound from the cited support zone, but said a weak rebound would leave the risk of further downside.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • The speaker said the bullish case depended on the low near $226.50 holding.
  • If MRVL traded below that level in November, he saw a possible pullback toward $160–$180.
  • He also mentioned bearish divergence on a longer-term chart.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was conditional: holding near $226.50 would preserve the bullish case, while a November break below it could lead to a substantial correction.

Orchestra BioMed (OBIO)

  • The speaker described the long-term chart as a major downtrend, while allowing for another test near $6 or slightly above.
  • He identified weekly closes below about $6.35 as a warning that the recent move could be a lower high within the downtrend.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed a rebound as possible but did not consider it a confirmed long-term reversal. He identified $6.35 as an important level for judging the setup.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)

  • The speaker said a daily close below about $46.50 could confirm a bearish moving-average cross and potentially align with a Bitcoin pullback toward $76,500–$77,000.
  • He cautioned that the signal appeared less reliable on IBIT than on Bitcoin itself and cited several past instances where it had not worked cleanly.

Takeaways

  • The speaker treated $46.50 as a level to watch, but explicitly cautioned against relying on the signal as strongly as the comparable Bitcoin setup.

Morpho (MORPHO; name transcribed as “Marfo”)

  • The speaker described the chart as an uptrend, with a possible pullback toward $2.23 and a potential rebound toward $3.
  • He said holding above $2 would keep the setup constructive. A break below that level would weaken the outlook.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was cautiously bullish while MORPHO remained above $2, viewing the recent consolidation as potentially constructive.

HYPE / Bitcoin

  • HYPE was described as relatively strong against Bitcoin.
  • The speaker expected a possible short-term decline, but thought the pair could form a higher low near its daily 200-period moving average.
  • He said a sustained break below that area could signal a larger reversal.

Takeaways

  • The speaker favored HYPE over Bitcoin on a relative basis while the cited support held, but viewed a break below it as a significant warning.

Celestia (TIA)

  • The speaker characterized TIA as a continuing downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows.
  • He mentioned $0.55 as a possible lower area.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offered no bullish reversal signal; the speaker’s bias was bearish.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • ZEC had reached the speaker’s previously cited corrective area of $10.50–$11.50.
  • He said he would not abandon the broader bullish view as long as the prior rising support near $10.50 held.
  • He expected sideways action and possibly a bounce later in the month.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed $10.50–$11.50 as a key support zone, while noting that a break below the area would undermine the bullish case.

Euro / U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)

  • The speaker viewed the longer-term trend as bearish, while allowing for a short-term bounce from the weekly 200-period moving average.
  • He said a rebound that failed below about 1.15 would look like a lower high and could leave the broader downtrend intact.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s bias was bearish over the longer term, but he expected a possible short-term bounce before assessing whether the downtrend resumed.

Prime Medicine (PRME)

  • The speaker saw a possible short-term reversal after the stock formed higher lows.
  • He identified $4.03 as a level to reclaim for confirmation, with potential upside toward $5–$6 if that happened.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was conditional: reclaiming $4.03 would strengthen the reversal case; without it, the move remained unconfirmed.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

  • The speaker said BMNR’s chart looked weaker than Ethereum’s, despite its association with Ethereum.
  • He saw a possible bounce toward $23, but said a daily close below the previous week’s low could expose a move toward $18.

Takeaways

  • The speaker preferred Ethereum over BMNR based on their relative charts and viewed $18 as a downside risk if support failed.

Nike (NKE)

  • The speaker thought Nike was close to a possible swing low, but did not consider it confirmed.
  • He described a possible rebound toward $60, while cautioning that a swing-low bounce would not necessarily mean the longer-term downtrend was over.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw potential for a rebound but did not identify a confirmed long-term reversal.

Triple V (ticker unclear in the transcript)

  • The speaker said the asset could continue higher if the low near $21 held.
  • He identified approximately $25.65 as a level that would make the chart look more constructive.
  • A daily close below $21 could open the way toward roughly $17–$18.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was conditional on holding $21; the asset name and ticker are unclear from the transcript.

Aerodrome (AERO)

  • The speaker described AERO as being in a sustained downtrend.
  • He mentioned a possible short-term bounce, but said a close below approximately $0.76 would confirm a lower high and could lead to a move toward $0.62–$0.63.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s bias was bearish, with $0.76 identified as an important level for judging whether further downside was likely.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The speaker described Tesla as technically weak, noting a lower high and a loss of major moving averages on the weekly chart.
  • He said a move toward $330–$340 was possible, but expressed limited conviction in that short-term forecast.
  • He viewed the August low as potentially significant.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s short-term technical read was bearish, but he did not present a high-conviction target or a confirmed long-term reversal.

Datadog (DDOG)

  • The speaker saw bearish divergence on the weekly chart and expected another possible move toward $235–$240.
  • He said the chart would look more concerning if it closed the month below about $250, but did not consider the longer-term outlook definitively bearish unless it fell below $200.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw room for a pullback, with $250 and $200 serving as different levels of concern.

L3Harris Technologies (LHX)

  • The speaker thought LHX was forming a swing low and expected a rebound.
  • He cited $265 as a possible minimum rebound area and around $290 as another potential level by year-end.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautiously positive for a rebound, though he noted that some longer-term chart signals were not especially strong.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • The speaker expected a possible short-term bounce toward $344–$345.
  • He said reclaiming roughly $382 would be a stronger sign of recovery.
  • If the bounce failed, he warned that the stock could have further downside; he did not specify a lower target.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a possible rebound but considered it distinct from a confirmed recovery, which would require reclaiming about $382.

Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Market Conditions

  • The speaker expected the week before the Fed decision to be relatively quiet. Historically, Bitcoin had been green in 54% of the seven-day periods before an FOMC decision since 2018, with a median return of about 0.5%.
  • A prediction-market contract for the Fed to maintain rates at the upcoming meeting was quoted at 86 cents, up from 82 cents the prior week. The speaker interpreted this as the market assigning a high likelihood to no change, but said he did not see enough value to make the trade himself.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected limited movement before the Fed announcement and viewed a rate hold as the market’s favored outcome.
  • He did not recommend a specific Fed-related trade, emphasizing that the quoted prediction-market price did not offer enough value for him.
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Video Description
Everything printed over the weekend: the 10-day reconnect closed $81,412 over its line, the 10-day stochastic crossed 80, the weekly bearish cross printed. Golden cross day 40 did not step. New studies: the week into FOMC across 71 decisions since 2018, what golden crosses under the median path at day 40 did next, how 41 corrective setups ended and what the re-cross paid, and the 6 prior bars where both 10-day signals printed together; plus Kalshi's Fed and October lines. 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME until noon PT Oct 31 (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497, the code still takes 20%) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, corrective setups, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. #Bitcoin #BTC #Live #FOMC CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: a quiet week into the Fed, and what fired last week 0:45 An edge for the last 12 days of October 2:27 Gold and silver: still bearish 4:02 Ethereum: last week's low is the line 4:53 Hard to be bearish on the higher timeframes 5:56 The week into FOMC: 54% green, no edge 7:13 What fired last week 7:45 The 10-day reconnect: official, 62% green in 10 days 8:44 +5% from the close: about $85,250 9:33 The 10-day stochastic: over 80, 79% green a month later 10:54 Since 2018 +14.5%: $93,000 to $95,000 by mid-November 11:56 The stack: both signals on one bar, 83% green 12:39 Since 2016: only three cases 13:04 20 and 30 days out 14:01 The line in the sand: the 12-hour trending higher low 14:41 Bearish divergence on the 12-hour; $81,900 14:56 The 2-day 200 SMA; under it, $76,500 15:34 Ethereum's line: $2,330 16:07 The 5-day silver cross: pending within two closes 17:22 It needs $83,622 on the next close 17:57 The longer Bitcoin goes sideways, the better it looks 18:40 Every 5-day silver cross since 2015 19:52 The downside map: $76,500, $75,000, then $67,000 to $70,000 20:20 Hidden bullish divergence building on the daily and 2-day 20:52 If you are bullish, last week's low holds 21:30 Kalshi: the Fed hold at 86c 22:22 Kalshi: trade $50, up to $500 credit 22:59 Kalshi: Friday's close, a $25 bet above $82,000 24:04 Gold short from 4,170 25:24 A tough entry to reposition 27:54 Bearish below 32.25 weekly 28:54 McDonald's: a swing low? 31:54 TA 101 and Options 101 are free 33:54 Tight ranges: no short-term call 35:54 RSI at 30 with no divergence 37:54 A lower high first, then the higher low 39:54 Solana vs Ethereum 41:54 XRP: the invalidation at 1.25 43:54 Realized returns and leverage 44:54 Talos Energy 46:54 Bitcoin holds its low: the alts follow 48:54 Shitcoin requests 51:54 Calamity: a retracement to 670 54:54 Best and worst case ranges 56:54 A test toward $6 1:00:54 The 5 and 21 EMA at the same number into Friday 1:02:54 A bounce to 13,000 sats 1:04:54 The bi-weekly tells the story 1:06:54 HYPE vs Bitcoin 1:07:54 Archangel and the spirits 1:08:54 Five failures in a year 1:09:54 Sideways into the end of the month 1:11:54 The euro and the long-term downtrend 1:12:54 A real reversal chance 1:13:54 Risk management in three parts 1:15:54 Rooftop Koreans 1:18:54 Mid to low 40s before year-end 1:24:54 Lost all the moving averages: back to 333 1:28:54 LHX: a bounce 1:30:54 A move to $60 and a lower high 1:34:54 Lower high confirmed: 62, 63 1:41:54 New highs cycle to cycle 1:43:54 Monero vs Zcash 1:45:54 You must figure this out before you trade 1:47:54 Coinbase follows Bitcoin 1:49:54 Broadcom and the AI-trading claim 1:51:54 The four stages of ideological subversion 1:53:21 Ending on that note 1:54:02 Sign-off: above last week's low, there is still hope
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...