Bitcoin Live: The Target Held. Tonight Decides the Next 10 Days
Bitcoin Live: The Target Held. Tonight Decides the Next 10 Days
15 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 59 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC): Maintain a cautiously bullish, roughly one-month outlook only while BTC holds above $79,700; a break could expose $76,500–$77,000, while a weekly close above $81,500–$82,000 would strengthen the near-term case.
  • VWCE, VTI, or VOO: For a 10–20-year horizon, consider gradual, regular investing in a diversified, low-cost fund; be prepared for further short-term market declines.
  • AMN Healthcare (AMN): The analysis sees potential upside toward $43–$46 over the next one to two months, though the longer-term reversal is not yet confirmed.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The host’s overall view was bullish over roughly the next month, citing historical weekly momentum signals and a “Golden Cross” return comparison. He said past examples often saw Bitcoin rise around 20% within about a month to six weeks, while emphasizing that past patterns do not guarantee a repeat.
  • The near-term outlook was less certain. The host noted that October’s low occurred on the 15th, a date he associated more often with a red October. He said a red monthly close would mean finishing below the roughly $84,000 monthly open, not necessarily making a new low.
  • He viewed the area around the recent low as important. A daily close below roughly $79,700 would make him consider further downside, with $76,500–$77,000 his next corrective area. He said that level could still preserve the broader uptrend.
  • For the short-term rally to remain in better shape, he wanted Bitcoin to hold above roughly $81,500–$81,700 at the weekly close. He also identified about $82,000 as a short-term pivot.
  • The host said a sustained move below roughly $78,882 would materially weaken his outlook; he cited a scenario in which three consecutive daily closes below that level could open the way to $63,000–$65,000.
  • A hypothetical move to $94,000 was discussed in response to a viewer’s question, not presented as a firm near-term forecast.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to a bullish medium-term bias but a fragile short-term setup. The key levels to monitor are roughly $79,700 on the downside and $81,500–$82,000 for near-term strength.
  • The host’s bullish case depends on Bitcoin holding recent lows and maintaining the weekly momentum setup. A daily close below $79,700 would, by his analysis, shift attention toward $76,500–$77,000.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)

  • The host used IBIT’s weekly close as one measure of whether Bitcoin’s short-term rally could continue. He cited approximately $46.09 as the weekly 5-day EMA level and said a close above it would better support the short-term bullish case.
  • He discussed a potential downside target around the 55-day EMA and a September chart gap, but said he considered Bitcoin’s own price action and a close below its recent low more useful confirmation than that indicator alone.

Takeaways

  • IBIT’s weekly close above or below the cited moving-average area was presented as a short-term momentum check, not a standalone buy or sell signal.
  • The host’s broader downside scenario for Bitcoin—roughly $76,500–$77,000—would also be relevant to IBIT holders.

S&P 500 / SPY

  • The host said a weekly close below roughly 7,750 could set up a correction toward about 7,600, which he characterized as a pullback that could still leave a higher low.
  • He also discussed possible further downside toward approximately 7,350–7,400 if the first corrective area failed.
  • The transcript’s quoted index levels appear to refer to the chart being discussed; they should not be treated as exact SPY ETF prices.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was cautious: a close below the stated threshold could increase the chance of a pullback.
  • He framed the first downside area as a potential correction rather than proof of a lasting market reversal. Further weakness would depend on how the index behaved at the next support area.

Nasdaq Futures

  • The host said Nasdaq futures were weaker than the broader market and were approaching a corrective target near 29,500.
  • He expected a possible bounce there, but said a move below roughly 28,800 would make him more concerned about the longer-term outlook.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests watching whether futures bounce near 29,500 or break below 28,800.
  • The host treated the first level as a possible short-term support area, not confirmation that the decline was over.

Federal Reserve Rates / Kalshi

  • The host said Kalshi contracts were pricing an 87% chance that the Fed would maintain rates at the October decision, with a much smaller implied chance of a hike and very little chance of a 25-basis-point cut.
  • He noted that the rate decision was due in the last week of October. He said the market offered no clear edge on the rate outlook by year-end and cautioned that the payout on the high-probability “hold” contract was unattractive to him.

Takeaways

  • The discussion reflects a market expectation of no October rate change, not a certainty or a recommendation to trade prediction-market contracts.
  • The host specifically cautioned that a low payout can make a seemingly likely outcome an unattractive risk-reward proposition.

TAO (Bittensor)

  • A viewer said they were long from $256. The host said the position had a clearly defined risk level: a move below the month’s low near $254.50 would lead him to abandon the trade.
  • He said TAO could reach roughly $350–$400 if Bitcoin rose to $94,000, but emphasized that this was a conditional scenario.
  • He noted potential hidden bearish divergence on the weekly chart and said a weekly close at or below the current level could validate it. He also expressed skepticism about the asset’s long-term trend history.

Takeaways

  • The host’s analysis gives the trade a clear invalidation level near $254.50, but the bullish price scenario depends on Bitcoin rallying.
  • The discussion highlights high uncertainty: the host saw potential upside but was wary of TAO’s longer-term trend and possible bearish divergence.

Cipher Mining (CIFR)

  • Asked about a long-term entry, the host pointed to the area around the 200-week simple moving average, roughly $7.50–$7.70.
  • He described the stock as a falling knife and warned that it could take months to stabilize after its sharp decline.
  • He cited roughly $4.64 as a possible downside risk level if the stock fell further.

Takeaways

  • The host identified $7.50–$7.70 as a possible area of long-term interest, but did not present it as a confirmed bottom.
  • The central risk is that the stock could continue falling or take a long time to recover; the cited $4.64 level illustrates the potential downside he discussed.

IREN (Iris Energy)

  • The host described IREN’s chart as a bearish downtrend, citing a sequence of lower highs and weak price structure.
  • He said he could see the stock moving toward roughly $19, and rejected the idea that a large decline by itself made the stock a bargain.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was bearish. The host’s main point was that a lower price does not automatically make a stock attractive.
  • Investors considering the stock would need to account for the continued downtrend described in the episode.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

  • The host said UNH could attempt to move back toward its prior highs around $450 over the next few weeks.
  • He identified roughly $410 as an important level to reclaim on a two-week close; he also cited approximately $406–$407 as a useful monthly closing area.
  • If the stock fell below the September low around $362.50, he said he would look for a deeper retracement toward roughly $315–$320, which he still viewed as a possible buying opportunity.

Takeaways

  • The host was constructive over the longer term, but said the stock’s range had not fully resolved.
  • The key levels in his analysis were roughly $410 for improving the bullish case and $362.50 for a potential shift toward the lower $315–$320 area.

Gold

  • A viewer said they were short gold from an average of $4,170, with a stop at $4,230. The host said he remained bearish below approximately $4,400.
  • He questioned whether $4,230 was the most appropriate stop for the viewer’s setup and mentioned roughly $4,218 as a level where he might exit sooner. He also said an area near $4,300 could make sense for a potential re-entry if the position were stopped out.
  • The host said he expected gold to be lower six months to two years from then, while acknowledging that short-term rallies could occur.

Takeaways

  • The host expressed a bearish longer-term view, but his comments also recognize the risk of short-term moves against a short position.
  • The levels discussed—$4,218, $4,230, $4,300, and $4,400—were tied to the viewer’s trade and the host’s chart analysis, not a guaranteed path.

Circle

  • The host said Circle looked weak in the short term and could fall toward $80. He also noted resistance near the daily 200-day simple moving average, around $86.
  • For a more substantial bullish reversal, he cited a weekly close above $103.25 as an earlier confirmation level, with roughly $109.50 as a more conservative confirmation level.
  • He said a move below about $78.50 would be a particularly negative signal and could put prices below $70 in play.

Takeaways

  • The host considered Circle unconfirmed and vulnerable in the short term. In his analysis, a close above $103.25 would improve the reversal case, while a break below $78.50 would raise downside risk.
  • No ticker was specified in the transcript.

HYPE

  • A viewer said they had entered HYPE around $40 and asked about moving their stop. The host suggested that a daily or weekly close below $70 could be a level to watch for a breakdown in the trend.
  • The transcript does not clarify the exact instrument or ticker beyond “HYPE.”

Takeaways

  • The host’s comment focused on protecting gains and monitoring trend support, rather than setting a price target.
  • Because the asset identity is not specified in the transcript, the quoted levels should be interpreted cautiously.

XRP (XRP)

  • The host said XRP was around $1.30 and that the area from $1.30 to $1.25 was a potential place to bounce.
  • He said a daily or weekly close below $1.25 would increase the risk of a sharper decline, with roughly $1.05 as a possible next area.
  • He described the chart as weak and said a bounce at the cited level would be important for the bullish case.

Takeaways

  • The host viewed $1.25 as a key support and risk level. Holding it could allow a bounce; losing it would, in his analysis, raise the risk of a move toward $1.05.
  • The discussion was cautious rather than an endorsement of XRP.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The host said that if Ethereum was going to remain bullish, he would expect the month’s low around $2,311 to hold. He also identified the area around $2,350 as a possible retest.
  • A close below the cited support area could, in his analysis, open a move toward about $2,150.
  • For the longer term, he said the upside case remained more likely than further downside as long as the key support held, while noting that a deeper drop could also affect his Bitcoin outlook.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was conditionally positive, with the bullish case dependent on Ethereum holding roughly $2,311–$2,350.
  • A sustained break below that area would be a warning sign in his analysis, with $2,150 the next cited downside area.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The host described a trading range with support near $4.30 and resistance around $5.57–$5.75.
  • He said NEAR showed relative strength compared with many other assets, but expected short-term weakness if Bitcoin continued falling.
  • He said a break below $4.30 could lead toward approximately $3.50–$3.80, while a break above the range could set a new direction.

Takeaways

  • The host saw NEAR as range-bound, with the boundaries providing the clearest levels to watch.
  • Holding $4.30 would preserve the current range; losing it would, by his analysis, expose NEAR to a deeper correction.

Solana (SOL)

  • The host said SOL was weaker than Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term.
  • He viewed roughly $100—the prior day’s low—as a key level. A daily close below it could, in his analysis, open a move toward $90–$95, with a further possible area around $82–$84.
  • For a stronger short-term outlook, he cited a move back above roughly $113.25.

Takeaways

  • The host’s short-term view was cautious. Holding around $100 would support a bounce case; a daily close below it would raise the risk of the lower levels he cited.
  • The higher $113.25 level was presented as a way to gauge whether short-term momentum had improved.

CRO (ticker inferred)

  • The viewer’s request appears to refer to CRO, though the transcript’s wording is unclear. The host said it could reach roughly $0.08–$0.09 if Bitcoin rose to $94,000, but characterized that as a hypothetical.
  • He described the chart as very weak and said he did not expect a sustained move higher.

Takeaways

  • The host’s tone was bearish, with the cited upside dependent on a substantial Bitcoin rally.
  • The asset identification is uncertain because the transcript does not clearly state the ticker.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • The host said MSTR would need to rise about 47% just to return to its prior May high, despite Bitcoin having already recovered substantially.
  • If Bitcoin reached $94,000–$95,000, he estimated MSTR might be around $235,000–$260,000 on the chart he was discussing, rather than automatically returning to its prior high.
  • He warned that leveraged products can suffer from volatility decay, making long-term holding risky compared with the underlying asset.
  • He also noted a bearish moving-average signal and said MSTR was weaker than Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The host warned against assuming that MSTR will track Bitcoin’s gains one-for-one.
  • His discussion emphasized volatility decay and relative weakness as risks, particularly for investors holding the stock over longer periods.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

  • The host said AMD could pull back toward roughly $506–$507, near its 21-day EMA, and attempt a bounce there.
  • He cited bearish divergence and said the stock might trade within a range of approximately $450–$600.
  • He said the broader chart could be vulnerable to a market swing high before year-end, while stressing uncertainty about timing.

Takeaways

  • The host expected a possible short-term pullback, followed by a potential bounce, but did not treat that bounce as confirmation of a lasting reversal.
  • The $450–$600 range was his broad scenario; the bearish signals he cited argue for caution.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

  • The host said ASTS was near a potential bounce area between approximately $34.50 and $38.50, but stressed that a bounce would not necessarily mean the stock had reversed its trend.
  • He described the chart as bearish and said it might take a month or two for a bounce to play out.
  • A close above $49 that day would have improved the picture, but he considered such a move unlikely.

Takeaways

  • The host saw possible support for a short-term bounce, but remained bearish on the broader setup.
  • The key caution was not to confuse a relief rally with a confirmed reversal.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The host said PLTR could pull back toward roughly $165–$170, citing a possible bearish engulfing candle and bearish divergence.
  • He did not describe himself as bearish overall; he viewed the potential decline as a pullback that could form a higher low.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was constructive longer term but cautious near term.
  • The $165–$170 area was identified as a possible place for a higher low, not a guaranteed bottom.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • The host said HOOD had bounced near $95, but expected the bounce could fail and the stock could fall toward $87–$85.
  • He also described a longer-term range scenario in which the stock might eventually test the mid-$70s.
  • A move above roughly $112 on a weekly close would make him more confident that the low was in and could support a stronger advance.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was cautious, with further downside possible despite the bounce.
  • In his analysis, a weekly close above $112 would improve the bullish case; failure to hold would keep lower support levels in play.

IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) and XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)

  • The host said he owned both ETFs, with entries substantially below current levels.
  • He described IBB as a slow-moving holding and said a close below roughly $195 could indicate a deeper pullback toward $175–$180.
  • He described XBI as another biotech holding but did not provide specific levels in this discussion.

Takeaways

  • The host was long-term constructive on both ETFs based on his own holdings, but flagged $195 as an important level for IBB.
  • His comments reflect his personal positioning and should not be read as a general recommendation.

ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF)

  • The host said ITA was holding up better than much of the market and could bounce toward $220–$230.
  • He described a possible trading range between approximately $195 and $245.
  • A break below $195 would make him question the longer-term setup, though he also said he remained bullish on the sector over the longer term.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was range-bound, with $195 as an important downside level and about $245 as the upper boundary he cited.
  • He distinguished his longer-term sector optimism from the possibility of further short-term weakness.

XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF)

  • The host said XOP looked bullish on the chart and cited a possible move toward roughly $220.
  • He acknowledged that he had a poor personal history trading oil and gas assets and did not fully trust his own read of the sector.

Takeaways

  • The chart view was bullish, but the host explicitly qualified his confidence in oil and gas trades.
  • The $220 level was an estimate, not a firm target or guarantee.

Natural Gas Futures (TTF1)

  • The host said the chart looked bullish but noted that it was nearing a gap area around 91–91.5 and could pull back.
  • He said a larger pullback would not necessarily undermine the broader bullish chart structure.

Takeaways

  • The host’s chart view was bullish with near-term pullback risk.
  • He also said he had little confidence in his own ability to trade oil and gas markets, an important qualification.

SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares)

  • The host said SOXS had reached a target around $11,500 on the chart under discussion and might bounce there.
  • He described the broader setup as, at best, a trading range, with an upper boundary around $13,250 and lower boundary near $10,500.
  • He warned against getting overly aggressive after the move and noted that the instrument’s rapid price swings could make it difficult to trade.

Takeaways

  • The host viewed SOXS as volatile and range-bound, not as a clear long-term trend.
  • The cited levels were chart-specific; the discussion did not establish a broader buy-and-hold case.

BMNR (BitMine Immersion Technologies)

  • The host compared BMNR to a leveraged Ethereum exposure and said it was falling harder than Ethereum.
  • He identified roughly $20.50—the prior day’s low—as important. A daily close below it could, in his analysis, lead toward $16–$17.
  • He said the bullish case depended on holding that low and warned that the stock’s greater volatility could amplify losses.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was cautious and conditional: holding $20.50 could support a bounce, while losing it could expose the lower levels he cited.
  • The stock’s sensitivity to Ethereum and its larger moves were presented as key risks.

VVV

  • The host said VVV had a clear level to watch around $21.25. A daily close below it could, in his analysis, expose the stock to roughly $16–$17.
  • He said a bounce was possible but did not treat it as confirmation that the decline was over.

Takeaways

  • The host’s short-term outlook was cautious. The $21.25 level was the key support in his analysis.
  • A bounce alone would not, in his view, confirm a lasting reversal.

AMN Healthcare Services (AMN)

  • The host said AMN looked relatively strong in the short term and could rise toward $43–$46 over the next month or two.
  • He said the longer-term chart still needed to form a higher low and expected the stock might trade sideways for a while.
  • He described a possible scenario in which AMN rose toward $45–$46, then pulled back to form a higher low.

Takeaways

  • The host saw near-term upside potential, but expected the stock might need time to build a longer-term base.
  • He did not describe the current move as a fully confirmed long-term reversal.

VWCE (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF)

  • A viewer asked about dollar-cost averaging for the long term. The host said he did not object to adding around the monthly 5-day EMA and weekly 21-day EMA.
  • He cautioned that the ETF could fall further if the broader market corrected.
  • He described regular investing over a 10–20 year horizon as reasonable, while distinguishing that long-term approach from short-term price timing.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supported long-term, gradual investing as a possible approach, while acknowledging additional short-term downside risk.
  • The host emphasized that continuing to invest does not mean the price cannot fall further.

FET (Artificial Superintelligence Alliance)

  • The host reacted very negatively to the chart, calling it one of the weakest discussed and criticizing the investment case implied by the price action.
  • No specific price target or support level was provided.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was strongly bearish in tone, but did not provide a specific trade setup or price level.

KATO

  • The host dismissed the chart as extremely weak and sarcastically criticized optimistic claims about the token.
  • No specific price target or support level was provided.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was strongly bearish, based on the chart shown; he did not give a defined entry, exit, or price target.

QQQ and Broad Index Investing

  • The host advised a friend asking about hiring a financial adviser to consider broad-market funds such as VTI, VOO, or QQQ instead.
  • He argued that low-cost index investing could outperform many financial advisers after fees, while presenting this as his personal view.

Takeaways

  • The host favored low-cost, diversified index funds as a straightforward long-term approach for investors who do not want to actively manage individual stocks.
  • His comments were general guidance, not a personalized assessment of the friend’s financial circumstances.
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Video Description
Bitcoin's correction target held: Thursday's low $79,694 sat on the daily 55 and the day closed $82,131. Tonight the daily and 10-day bars close together. New studies: Thursday's reversal day in the table (118 cases, no edge in the candle), the back half of October after a red first half (six Octobers, -1.6% median; every red-start month since 2011), the stochastic bearish cross over 80 on his settings across every timeframe (the weekly prints Sunday), and the back half of October after a red first half; plus golden cross day 38 and Kalshi's overnight move on the Fed. 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME until noon PT Oct 31 (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497, the code still takes 20%) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, reversal days, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. #Bitcoin #BTC #Live #Kalshi CHAPTERS 0:00 Countdown: live in ten minutes 10:27 We are live: higher-timeframe setups, new studies 11:33 New things on the board today 15:24 SPY: a close under 7,750 opens 7,600 16:25 NASDAQ: the 29,500 target, 28,800 the line 17:09 Bitcoin: the higher timeframes matter more 17:23 The weekly stochastic: a bearish cross from over 80 18:09 Every cross since 2018: local lows, the rally not done 18:24 Jun 2025: +20% in a month 19:05 Dec 2023: +18.7% in two weeks 19:20 Jan 2023: +41.5% in six weeks 19:59 Sep 2021: +43% in 42 days 20:47 Another 20% from here: $95,000 to $100,000 21:27 The bear case gets its fair share 21:43 A red October: the low lands on the 15th 22:41 The back half after a red first half: 33% green, six cases 23:57 Yesterday's low as the low; under $79,700 the $76,500 gap 25:04 Trending higher lows: TA 101 is free 25:39 The October sale: TradingView's November 1 rule, lifetime honored 27:17 Kalshi: the Fed hold repriced 70c to 87c 28:24 FOMC is the last week of October 28:57 Kalshi: trade $50, up to $500 credit 29:09 Golden cross day 38: the median path is +18% 29:43 This cross undershoots: the play on the other side 30:50 +15% from here puts Bitcoin over $90,000 33:03 The weekly close: the CME 5 EMA at $81,678 34:11 Super chats 35:53 LINK 38:00 TIA 39:53 DOGE and the chart requests 41:53 Short setups and stop losses 44:53 More requests 50:11 The 2-day timeframes 52:08 Entries at 103.25 59:53 HYPE: moving stops up 1:00:53 Index funds beat most managers 1:02:53 SPY and the quarterly 1:04:53 A clean setup: the weekly line 1:09:47 DCA questions 1:11:53 Bearish engulfing and divergence 1:15:03 Solana: yesterday's low must hold 1:18:53 Grateful for the community 1:21:53 Bitcoin to $92,000 to $95,000? Leveraged ETFs 1:23:53 Three lower highs 1:25:53 Oil and gas 1:28:53 Worst chart of the day 1:31:53 SOXS: a pullback 1:33:53 IBIT: what close turns bearish 1:35:53 This week's low at 111 1:37:53 The CTA exam 1:39:53 Palantir 1:41:53 Correlation is not causation 1:43:53 Truth, acceptance and the Gulag Archipelago 1:48:53 Range highs and trending higher lows 1:51:25 The line in the sand: three closes 1:54:53 A documentary and a tangent 1:57:32 Wrapping up: the 4-hour 200 SMA and $82,800 1:58:02 Breakdown only under $79,700; higher a month out 1:58:20 A long with a stop at yesterday's low 1:59:20 Sign-off
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...