Question of the day: a dip to buy, or a correction to wait for? Both: the silver cross printed, but the corrective crosses point at $78,324 and $77,457 first.
Live through the Fed decision at 2 PM ET. Inside: the 5-day silver cross (official; six priors +10.7% by day 30), the dip inside the bull (all six priors dipped a median -6.7% first), the 13/34 and 2-day corrective crosses, the put/call signal (26 priors: +14 days 81% green), and what 71 Fed days did.
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#Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #CryptoTrading
CHAPTERS
0:00 Countdown: live shortly
10:04 We are live: FOMC day
11:18 The hold is priced; the Warsh presser is where it moves
12:53 The Kalshi board: a hold at 96c; December in play
14:15 Fed funds end of 2027: a coin flip, no edge
15:38 Two things printed last night: one corrective, one bullish
16:25 The 2-day 5/21 corrective cross: target the 55 at $77,500
17:20 The 13/34 cross: target $78,250
17:47 The higher low that matters: $75,000
18:19 My line, $79,700, tested four times and holding
18:58 A tale of two boundaries: $79,700 and $85,000
19:24 CONFIRMED: the 5-day silver cross
19:45 Every silver cross in 11 years
20:46 The Krown PCR: puts massively favored over calls
21:44 Buying a put does not mean bearish
22:11 Every put-heavy signal and the lows it marked
22:46 Never blindly long a signal
24:07 The free programs: TA 101, Options 101, the AI agent
24:50 Why I am not bearish here; my best sentiment read
26:07 The Reverend ribbons: the mid band near $76,000
27:10 The Daily Hundred, Day 71
28:11 Kalshi: the 15-minute contracts
28:55 CIFR: a swing low, not the macro low
30:00 Betting on an up; the bounce does not hold
30:35 Ethereum: bearish under $4,250 on the bi-monthly
31:28 TradingView lifetime indicators: November 1 is off
32:38 ARM: $300 before $175?
34:20 IBB: bearish under $197
36:37 GLXY: bearish under $16.43 on the month
38:06 MRVL: a bounce toward $260 into November
40:00 SWC on the LSE: a shitcoin chart
42:30 BNNR: above the October 15 low, $20.56
44:03 BE Bloom Energy: bullish above $185
45:31 A fresh ascending-triangle breakout: target north of $600
47:05 PRME Prime Medicine
48:52 APP AppLovin: into the weekly 200 SMA
52:17 Richard Heart: my take
54:16 BU: too new to call
55:46 COIN rip or dip: a daily bounce, the monthly not good
57:33 MBS update
58:55 Waiting on the decision
1:01:15 THE DECISION: a hold at 3.75 to 4%, two dissents for a hike
1:02:33 XRP: $1.25 is the line
1:04:48 Is a 55 EMA tag my base case this week?
1:05:50 Short term vs long term, explained again
1:06:19 ASST: I do not give accumulation targets
1:07:00 Is the low in? The wrong question
1:09:33 SOL B on the TSX: bullish above $7.50 weekly
1:10:36 If Bitcoin hits $76,000: SOL at $93 to $95
1:11:33 ACU: $0.09 is the risk line
1:12:25 LOY weekly and monthly
1:14:14 CLOV weekly: breakout above $520
1:16:52 Bitcoin: the weekly trending higher low is $62,000
1:17:49 Does the 2-day target have to happen? How long?
1:18:30 You need a strategy, not a target
1:20:41 CVE weekly and monthly
1:22:00 MAC: a bullish consolidation
1:29:00 Finding the press conference stream
1:30:00 ETH/BTC: a weekly uptrend first; under 3M sats is bad
1:31:02 Chair Warsh: the statement
1:36:41 A new FOMC schedule from next fall
1:37:41 Q&A: why not hike today?
1:49:03 Newsmax: interrogating reality
1:50:09 Bloomberg: inflation above 2%
1:52:00 Fox Business: oil and inflation
1:53:41 Financial Times: AI and rates
1:57:00 AP: projections and forward guidance
2:01:07 WSJ and Reuters: the AI investment boom
2:04:43 Politico: Lisa Cook
2:05:09 What did we learn? Nothing given away
2:06:36 Sign-off: corrective short term, bullish long term
DISCLOSURES
General market commentary and education, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or size anything. I am not a registered investment adviser or commodity trading advisor. I may hold positions in assets discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss; statistics and backtests are hypothetical and do not predict results. Some links are affiliate links. Consult a licensed professional before acting.