Bitcoin Live: The Most IMPORTANT FOMC Stream on YouTube [uncensored]
Bitcoin Live: The Most IMPORTANT FOMC Stream on YouTube [uncensored]
15 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube2 hr 7 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC) is a conditional long-term opportunity over the next 3–12 months, but watch for a pullback: below $79,700, the host saw potential support at $77,500–$78,250; a daily close below $75,000 would weaken the bullish case, while reclaiming $84,000 would support it.
  • iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) offers a breakout setup if it closes the week above $213, with potential upside toward $230–$250; reassess if it closes below $197.
  • ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has a constructive technical outlook above $45, with potential upside beyond $60; a break below $45 would invalidate that view.
  • W has broken out of a roughly five-year consolidation; the host cited $5.10 and $5.65 as levels to watch and a longer-term target above $6, while maintaining a positive view above $4.25.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%. The host did not expect a major move from the announcement itself and said market reaction could depend more on the Chair’s comments.
  • The host saw potential for a short-term correction: a break below $79,700 could open a move toward roughly $77,500–$78,250, with the mid-band near $76,000 also described as a possible support area.
  • A daily close below roughly $75,000 would make the host reconsider his medium-term bullish view. Reclaiming about $84,000 would support his view that a short-term low was in; he cited about $84,900–$85,000 as the nearby upper boundary.
  • Despite the short-term caution, the host was bullish over a three- to twelve-month horizon. He pointed to a five-day moving-average “silver cross” and a put/call-ratio signal as evidence that Bitcoin could be higher over time. He also said he bought Bitcoin during the stream.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports separating time horizons: the host saw room for a near-term pullback while remaining bullish longer term.
  • Watch the stated levels—particularly $79,700, $75,000, and $84,000—as the host’s reference points for whether his short-term view changes. These are his technical levels, not guarantees.

Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates

  • The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%. The decision passed 10–2, with two members preferring a 25-basis-point hike.
  • Chair Warsh said inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% goal, while economic activity and consumer spending are strong. He emphasized that the committee would assess incoming information rather than commit to a particular date or future move.
  • The host said markets had widely expected a hold. He noted that some market participants were discussing a possible rate hike in December, but the Chair did not confirm that path.
  • Warsh said interest rates affect AI investment and other parts of the economy, and that financial conditions had tightened somewhat. He also described AI-related investment as broadening beyond a narrow group of companies.

Takeaways

  • The transcript points to continued uncertainty about the next rate move: inflation remains elevated, but the Fed has not committed to a hike.
  • The Chair’s comments suggest that investors in rate-sensitive areas—including technology and AI-related businesses—should pay attention to both rate expectations and the durability of investment spending.

Gold

  • The host expected a short-term bounce, including for the week of the discussion, but remained bearish over the longer term.
  • He said a bi-monthly close below about $4,250 would reinforce his bearish view.

Takeaways

  • The host distinguished a possible near-term rebound from a longer-term bearish outlook. A bounce, in his framing, would not by itself confirm a trend reversal.

Arm Holdings (ARM)

  • The host saw scope for a bounce toward roughly $260–$270, but was not convinced the longer-term trend was bullish.
  • He said a monthly close below $250 would make him favor downside before a move to $300. He also mentioned $175 as a possible lower level, while noting that $185 was a more relevant area on the chart.

Takeaways

  • The view was conditional: a bounce was possible, but the host would want to see ARM hold above $250 to avoid a more bearish interpretation.

iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB)

  • The host was bullish and said a weekly close above $213 would support a technical breakout.
  • He cited potential technical levels around $230–$250 and said he would reconsider his view after a weekly close below roughly $197.

Takeaways

  • In the host’s view, IBB’s breakout case depended on holding above $197 and closing the week above $213.

Procter & Gamble (PG)

  • The host was cautiously optimistic, describing a possible base and noting a higher low.
  • He said he would become more concerned below $150 and saw the area above roughly $155 as more supportive of his view.

Takeaways

  • The host’s constructive view depended on PG holding above the stated support levels; a move below $150 would prompt reassessment.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY)

  • The host viewed the chart as being in a downtrend. He said a bounce toward $22–$23 was possible but would not, by itself, change that view.
  • A monthly close below $16.43 would make him “extremely bearish.” He also said the stock would need to reclaim about $27.67 to improve the picture.

Takeaways

  • The host treated any near-term rebound as potentially temporary unless GLXY could reclaim the stated resistance area.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • The host described Marvell as one of the stronger semiconductor stocks, but still thought a move lower—possibly toward $180—remained possible.
  • If the month closed near the level shown during the stream, he expected a potential November rally toward $260–$265, but viewed that rally as vulnerable to rejection.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was mixed: Marvell was relatively stronger than some peers, but the host remained wary of treating a rebound as a confirmed long-term recovery.

Cipher Mining (CIFR)

  • The host expected a swing-low bounce around the area where CIFR met major moving averages and prior chart support.
  • He said that would not necessarily be a macro bottom. For a reversal, he wanted to see a higher low followed by a higher high, with a move above about $20 needed to clear the prior lower high.

Takeaways

  • The host distinguished a potential bounce from a confirmed trend reversal; confirmation would require follow-through above the prior high.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

  • The host said he did not have an objective reason to expect further downside unless BMNR broke its October 15 low of $20.56.
  • If that low gave way, he expected the stock could fall below $20. If it held, he said a bounce toward roughly $23 was possible.

Takeaways

  • The $20.56 low was the key level in the host’s analysis: holding it left room for a bounce, while losing it would weaken the setup.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • The host expected a possible bounce and said the stock had formed a higher low.
  • He identified about $1.86 as a level that would make him reconsider the setup and said a monthly close above roughly $2.40 would be a positive sign.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view depended on BE maintaining its higher low; he treated $1.86 as a key downside level and $2.40 as a near-term confirmation level.

W (Ticker as Mentioned)

  • The host described a breakout from a roughly five-year consolidation and was bullish, saying the chart looked strong.
  • He cited technical levels of $5.10 and $5.65, with a longer-term target above $6.00, and said he would remain positive above $4.25.

Takeaways

  • The host viewed the breakout as constructive but tied his bullish stance to the stock holding above $4.25. The transcript does not identify the company beyond the ticker reference.

Prime Medicine (PRME)

  • The host said a rebound was possible, with the 200-day moving average near $6.25 as a potential point of resistance. He also noted that a move above roughly $7 would be needed to confirm a reversal.
  • He described the chart as uncertain and said he did not particularly like it as an investment setup.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offered a possible bounce scenario, not a confirmed reversal. The host’s cited confirmation area was above $7.

AppLovin (APP)

  • The host expected APP could fall further toward roughly $240–$220, followed by a possible bounce.
  • He said a rebound toward $300–$350 was possible but did not view that alone as proof of a lasting recovery.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was cautious: he saw potential support lower down and treated any subsequent rally as a possible bounce rather than a confirmed change in trend.

Iron (IRON)

  • The host thought IRON was in a short-term bounce area and said it might revisit roughly $25.50–$26 without making a new low.
  • His longer-term view remained bearish. He said a rally toward $35 could still be a lower high and mentioned a move below $20 as possible over time.

Takeaways

  • The host saw a potential short-term rebound within a broader bearish setup, rather than treating the bounce as a trend reversal.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

  • The host expected a possible short-term bounce toward $435–$460 after the stock tested a prior higher low.
  • He did not suggest that such a bounce would resolve the longer-term chart.

Takeaways

  • The cited levels describe a potential rebound zone, not a stated long-term price target or confirmation of a new uptrend.

XRP (XRP)

  • The host said $1.25 was an important level to hold.
  • He said a move back above about $1.40 would be needed to confirm a more bullish view.

Takeaways

  • In the host’s analysis, $1.25 was the key support level and $1.40 the more meaningful confirmation level.

ASST

  • The host said the chart’s evidence leaned bearish, while noting that a move below $20 would strengthen that case.
  • He did not provide a clear accumulation recommendation or a confirmed bottom.

Takeaways

  • The discussion did not establish a bullish investment thesis. The host emphasized uncertainty and the risk of further weakness.

Solana (SOL) and Solana ETF (SOLB)

  • In response to a hypothetical Bitcoin pullback toward $76,000–$77,000, the host estimated that SOL could be around $93–$95.
  • For SOLB, a Solana exchange-traded product, he said a weekly close above $7.50 would support a bullish bias; a weekly close below that level would weaken it.

Takeaways

  • The SOL estimate was conditional on Bitcoin reaching the stated price range. For SOLB, the host identified $7.50 as the key weekly level.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

  • The host said he preferred not to buy Dogecoin.

Takeaways

  • The host expressed a negative personal preference, but provided no price levels or separate investment thesis.

Cardano (ADA)

  • The host dismissed ADA’s chart as weak and did not provide a price target or a detailed analysis.

Takeaways

  • The transcript contains no constructive case or specific trading level for ADA.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum was described negatively during a brief comment, but the host gave no supporting chart analysis, price levels, or timeline.

Takeaways

  • The comments do not establish a detailed Ethereum investment thesis.

ACU

  • The host described ACU as a speculative crypto asset but said its chart looked more promising than several other tokens discussed.
  • He said a daily close above $0.155 would confirm a breakout and cited $0.09 as a level below which the setup would weaken.

Takeaways

  • The host’s positive view was conditional on a daily close above $0.155; he treated $0.09 as an important downside level.

METE

  • The host thought METE could move toward about $0.25 and potentially bounce there.
  • He said a daily close below roughly $0.2825 would weaken the short-term setup, while also expressing the view that a move toward $0.25 was likely.

Takeaways

  • The host’s comments were cautious despite identifying a possible bounce area; he did not describe a confirmed reversal.

Clover Health (CLOV)

  • The host was positive while CLOV remained above $4.10.
  • He said a breakout above $5.20 would confirm a stronger setup.

Takeaways

  • The host’s bullish view depended on CLOV holding $4.10 and clearing $5.20.

Datadog (DDOG)

  • The host was positive over the longer term while DDOG remained above $200.
  • He was uncertain about whether the stock would correct in the near term.

Takeaways

  • The transcript supports a longer-term positive bias above $200, but not a clear short-term direction.

ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)

  • The host was bullish while ARKG remained above $45 and cited potential upside beyond $60.
  • He said a fall below $45 would be a negative signal.

Takeaways

  • The host’s positive outlook depended on ARKG holding $45; the cited upside was a technical possibility, not a guaranteed target.

Cenovus Energy (CVE)

  • The host expected a possible short-term correction toward $43–$44, but remained positive over the longer term while CVE held above about $41.

Takeaways

  • The host viewed a pullback as compatible with a longer-term constructive outlook, provided the stated support held.

Lumentum (LITE)

  • The host described LITE’s consolidation as bullish while it held above $700 and identified roughly $700–$750 as an area of interest.
  • He said a monthly close below $825 would be a negative signal, while a monthly close at or above that level would be more constructive.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was broadly positive but dependent on LITE holding its stated support area and finishing the month above the cited level.

UMAC

  • The host said UMAC could bounce near its prior low, including toward $20, but viewed the broader chart as bearish.
  • He identified about $24 as a level the stock would need to exceed to improve the longer-term picture.

Takeaways

  • A short-term bounce would not, in the host’s view, erase the broader downtrend unless UMAC reclaimed the stated resistance area.

NetApp (NTAP)

  • The host viewed NTAP positively over the longer term while it remained above $160.
  • Given the stock’s recent advance, he said a period of sideways movement or a pullback to form a higher low was possible.

Takeaways

  • The host’s longer-term view was constructive, but he cautioned that further straight-line gains were not assured.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • The host was bullish, describing the chart as positioned for a potential continuation of its breakout.
  • He said a monthly close above $12.92 would be especially constructive and identified $12.39 as a level relevant to the breakout setup.

Takeaways

  • The host favored the upside if the breakout held, while acknowledging that a further correction before a breakout was also possible.

Smarter Web Company (SWC)

  • The host described SWC as a weak, long-term declining chart and said he did not view it as an attractive technical investment.
  • He allowed that a bounce could occur, with $61–$62 cited as a possible upper area, but did not see that as changing his broader negative view.

Takeaways

  • The host’s overall assessment was bearish; he treated any rebound as a possible temporary move rather than evidence of a lasting recovery.

ProShares? (Not specified)


Moodeng (MOODENG)

  • The host mentioned buying “Moo Dang,” but did not provide a price, reasoning, or investment analysis.

Takeaways

  • The mention was a personal purchase reference, not a stated recommendation or a developed investment thesis.

AI and Semiconductor Investment Theme

  • Chair Warsh said interest rates matter to AI investment and that rate changes can affect technology and other sectors.
  • He also said capital investment was broadening beyond a narrow set of technology companies, while the host expressed mixed views across semiconductor stocks.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests that investors should not assume AI-related spending is insulated from interest rates. The transcript did not provide a specific recommendation to buy or sell the sector.
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Video Description
Question of the day: a dip to buy, or a correction to wait for? Both: the silver cross printed, but the corrective crosses point at $78,324 and $77,457 first. Live through the Fed decision at 2 PM ET. Inside: the 5-day silver cross (official; six priors +10.7% by day 30), the dip inside the bull (all six priors dipped a median -6.7% first), the 13/34 and 2-day corrective crosses, the put/call signal (26 priors: +14 days 81% green), and what 71 Fed days did. 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME through Oct 31 noon PT (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ #Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #CryptoTrading CHAPTERS 0:00 Countdown: live shortly 10:04 We are live: FOMC day 11:18 The hold is priced; the Warsh presser is where it moves 12:53 The Kalshi board: a hold at 96c; December in play 14:15 Fed funds end of 2027: a coin flip, no edge 15:38 Two things printed last night: one corrective, one bullish 16:25 The 2-day 5/21 corrective cross: target the 55 at $77,500 17:20 The 13/34 cross: target $78,250 17:47 The higher low that matters: $75,000 18:19 My line, $79,700, tested four times and holding 18:58 A tale of two boundaries: $79,700 and $85,000 19:24 CONFIRMED: the 5-day silver cross 19:45 Every silver cross in 11 years 20:46 The Krown PCR: puts massively favored over calls 21:44 Buying a put does not mean bearish 22:11 Every put-heavy signal and the lows it marked 22:46 Never blindly long a signal 24:07 The free programs: TA 101, Options 101, the AI agent 24:50 Why I am not bearish here; my best sentiment read 26:07 The Reverend ribbons: the mid band near $76,000 27:10 The Daily Hundred, Day 71 28:11 Kalshi: the 15-minute contracts 28:55 CIFR: a swing low, not the macro low 30:00 Betting on an up; the bounce does not hold 30:35 Ethereum: bearish under $4,250 on the bi-monthly 31:28 TradingView lifetime indicators: November 1 is off 32:38 ARM: $300 before $175? 34:20 IBB: bearish under $197 36:37 GLXY: bearish under $16.43 on the month 38:06 MRVL: a bounce toward $260 into November 40:00 SWC on the LSE: a shitcoin chart 42:30 BNNR: above the October 15 low, $20.56 44:03 BE Bloom Energy: bullish above $185 45:31 A fresh ascending-triangle breakout: target north of $600 47:05 PRME Prime Medicine 48:52 APP AppLovin: into the weekly 200 SMA 52:17 Richard Heart: my take 54:16 BU: too new to call 55:46 COIN rip or dip: a daily bounce, the monthly not good 57:33 MBS update 58:55 Waiting on the decision 1:01:15 THE DECISION: a hold at 3.75 to 4%, two dissents for a hike 1:02:33 XRP: $1.25 is the line 1:04:48 Is a 55 EMA tag my base case this week? 1:05:50 Short term vs long term, explained again 1:06:19 ASST: I do not give accumulation targets 1:07:00 Is the low in? The wrong question 1:09:33 SOL B on the TSX: bullish above $7.50 weekly 1:10:36 If Bitcoin hits $76,000: SOL at $93 to $95 1:11:33 ACU: $0.09 is the risk line 1:12:25 LOY weekly and monthly 1:14:14 CLOV weekly: breakout above $520 1:16:52 Bitcoin: the weekly trending higher low is $62,000 1:17:49 Does the 2-day target have to happen? How long? 1:18:30 You need a strategy, not a target 1:20:41 CVE weekly and monthly 1:22:00 MAC: a bullish consolidation 1:29:00 Finding the press conference stream 1:30:00 ETH/BTC: a weekly uptrend first; under 3M sats is bad 1:31:02 Chair Warsh: the statement 1:36:41 A new FOMC schedule from next fall 1:37:41 Q&A: why not hike today? 1:49:03 Newsmax: interrogating reality 1:50:09 Bloomberg: inflation above 2% 1:52:00 Fox Business: oil and inflation 1:53:41 Financial Times: AI and rates 1:57:00 AP: projections and forward guidance 2:01:07 WSJ and Reuters: the AI investment boom 2:04:43 Politico: Lisa Cook 2:05:09 What did we learn? Nothing given away 2:06:36 Sign-off: corrective short term, bullish long term DISCLOSURES General market commentary and education, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or size anything. I am not a registered investment adviser or commodity trading advisor. I may hold positions in assets discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss; statistics and backtests are hypothetical and do not predict results. Some links are affiliate links. Consult a licensed professional before acting.
About Krown
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...